038
FXUS62 KJAX 162327
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Added patchy fog to the I-75 corridor for the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Hot and dry conditions remain ongoing this afternoon within
stacked high pressure in control across the area. High pressure
ridge to our south and east has allowed a modest southwesterly
flow to develop, resulting in temperatures soaring above average
into the 90s essentially all the way to the coast with a sea
breeze pinned just offshore. Below normal PWATs in the 1 inch
range are not only curtailing any convective chances for the area
today, but also limiting any sort of cloud cover as the drier air
aloft mixes down diurnally. Temps top out generally in the low to
mid 90s under the mostly sunny skies and offshore breezes around
10 mph. Mild lows tonight with upper 60s and low 70s common. Some
patchy fog and low stratus will be possible inland with
southwesterly flow advecting moisture off the gulf tonight, though
given the drier than normal airmass and a bit of a breeze keeping
up overnight, not confident enough to include any fog in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Mostly dry weather conditions will continue on Saturday and into
Sunday as high pressure ridging extends across the Florida
peninsula with a potential for showers forming over southeast
Georgia during the weekend, dependent on the positioning of a
frontal boundary to the north and if a few weak upper level waves
along with moist air extends southward into the forecast area.
High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s
with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for Monday and Tuesday
with chances for showers and storms increasing on Wednesday and
Thursday as a frontal boundary presses in from out of the
northwest. Drier weather conditions are expected to return by the
end of the week as drier air and high pressure ridging extends
over the forecast area. High temperatures for next week will start
off well above the seasonal average, with max temps reaching into
the mid to upper 90s, with temps experiencing a slight cooling
trend after midweek and becoming closer to the seasonal average by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Mainly VFR conditions with WSW winds prevail through the period.
Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible at VQQ and GNV
between 08-12Z lowering VSBYs to MVFR. Brief IFR/LIFR ceilings
will be possible with the stratus. WSW winds increase to around
10 kts after 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

High pressure will remain in control across local waters through
the weekend and into the start of next week as ridging over the
Florida Peninsula moves very little. A weakening cold front will
approach GA waters Sunday afternoon, though stall north of all
waters with very little chances for showers and/or thunderstorms
continuing. High pressure looks to hold across the area through
early next week before our next front approaches mid week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk is low at area beaches at time
through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A dry and increasingly hot air mass will result in minimum
relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent range at
most locations today and again on Saturday. Breezy westerly
transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values this
afternoon. Westerly transport winds will strengthen even further
on Saturday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to
create high to very high daytime dispersion values on Saturday and
Sunday. The Atlantic sea breeze should remain pinned to the east
of I-95 through the mid to late afternoon hours today and again
on Saturday, with this boundary expected to push further inland
on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Daily record high temperatures were broken today (5/16) at
Jacksonville and Craig.

Record High Temperatures at climate sites through early next week:

Saturday May 17:
KJAX: 96/1995
KCRG: 93/2001
KAMG: 94/2001
KGNV: 96/1915

Sunday May 18:
KJAX: 96/1899
KCRG: 93/2001
KAMG: 95/2001
KGNV: 97/1930

Monday May 19:
KJAX: 97/1960
KCRG: 95/2022
KAMG: 97/1960
KGNV: 99/1899

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  92  70  92 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  71  91  74  89 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  68  96  69  96 /   0  10   0  10
SGJ  70  95  69  93 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  67  94  67  95 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  67  93  67  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$