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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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811 FXUS62 KJAX 301555 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AT INLAND LOCATIONS... ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10... ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Noon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1021 millibars) extending its axis westward across north central FL. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough was located over the southern Appalachians and the Deep South, with a cold front extending from the eastern Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Ozarks pressing southeastward. Aloft..."Heat Wave" ridging centered along the Red River Valley of northern Texas was expanding into the southeastern states, with a potent shortwave trough traversing southeastern portions of Ontario, Canada. Otherwise, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) axis extends westward from the Bahamas across south FL. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably moist atmosphere remains in place area-wide, with values generally in the 1.9 - 2.1 inch range. Low-level troughing over the Deep South was already developing scattered low-topped convection late this morning for locations along the FL/GA border to the west of the Suwannee River, with this activity pushing slowly south-southeastward. A few showers are also developing east of this activity along the I-10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and northeast FL. Otherwise, fair to partly cloudy skies prevailed throughout our region at 16Z, with temperatures quickly climbing toward the 90 degree mark at most locations, with dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Ridging aloft to the west of our region and the TUTT axis to the south of our area will create a deepening east-northeasterly flow pattern aloft this afternoon. Deep moisture in place area-wide and convective initiation temperatures in the low to mid 90s should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms initially developing ahead of the approaching surface trough and also along the inland moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes early this afternoon. Mesoscale boundaries should converge at inland locations west of I-95 late this afternoon, with light northwesterly steering winds resulting in slow storm motion and the potential for locally heavy downpours through early this evening, mainly across southeast GA and also along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL. Mesoscale boundary collisions may result in storms pulsing at inland locations late this afternoon and early this evening, with stronger activity being capable of producing downburst winds of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning, along with heavy downpours that will could result in localized flooding, particularly at urban and normally flood prone locations. High temperatures will generally rise to the 90-95 degree range before convection and cloud cover increase across our area. We maintained the Heat Advisory for portions of southeast GA, where values may approach 108 degrees early this afternoon before convective coverage increases. Maximum heat index values of 103-107 degrees are forecast elsewhere. Deep-layer east-northeasterly flow will focus convection closer to the I-75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL early this evening, with forcing from the nearby surface trough and mesoscale boundary collisions keeping slow moving convection going past sunset across inland portions of southeast GA as well. Localized flooding may be possible at urban and normally flood prone locations in these areas early this evening. Convective coverage should then wane towards midnight, with debris clouds then thinning overnight. Lows overnight will range from the low to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s at coastal and urban locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A cold front pressing down from out of the north is expected to stall over Georgia by Tuesday with stronger convection developing ahead of the frontal boundary with a potential for severe thunderstorms forming on Monday over southeast Georgia and adjacent Florida counties. Deep-layer moisture with PWAT values rising to be about 2.25 to 2.75 inches ahead of the front will result in storms capable of producing heavy rainfall with a potential for localized flooding. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for areas behind the frontal boundary. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat advisory conditions may be possible on Monday and Tuesday as heat index levels rise to 108 and above during peak daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Convection will become relatively less widespread as the week continues as drier air associated with the weakening front moves to cover the forecast area with the prevailing flow becomes more out of the north and northeast as high pressure shifts further eastward. Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a warming trend through the week with max temps rising into the upper 90s going into the weekend. Potential for heat advisory conditions will continue and become more likely by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A moist airmass will lead to diurnal showers and storms today, mostly starting up around 18z and continuing into the evening hours. Highest chances generally around GNV in the aftn. TEMPO groups currently set for 18-23z time frame for sites with convective developments forming in vicinity afterwards. Sfc winds will be light and will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop at SSI, CRG, and SGJ this afternoon and then become more light and variable for sites overnight and into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Atlantic high pressure stretching its axis westward across the northeast Florida waters this afternoon will sink southward tonight as a frontal boundary approaches our local waters from the north. Offshore winds will prevail ahead of this approaching frontal boundary, except near shore, where the Atlantic sea breeze will push inland during this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next several days. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the near shore waters. The frontal boundary will stall the Georgia waters on Tuesday, with increasing chances for mainly afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Prevailing winds will shift to east and southeasterly beginning on Tuesday as high pressure builds down the southeastern seaboard. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward towards our local waters later this week. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a persistent long period easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches. This moderate risk is expected to continue at area beaches on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Light westerly transport winds today will result in poor to fair daytime dispersion values this afternoon. Breezy onshore surface winds are forecast at coastal locations this afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. South-southwesterly transport winds will become breezy on Monday for locations south of Interstate 10, where good daytime dispersion values are forecast. Lighter transport speeds and widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms will create generally poor to fair daytime dispersion values on Monday for locations along and north of I-10. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 75 93 72 / 50 50 70 60 SSI 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 60 60 JAX 93 75 93 75 / 60 50 50 50 SGJ 90 76 91 77 / 40 30 40 40 GNV 93 73 93 75 / 60 70 50 30 OCF 92 73 92 75 / 60 60 50 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-165- 166-264. AM...None. && $$