Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
793 FXUS62 KJAX 120024 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 824 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .UPDATE....After a few pulse strong to severe storms, the severe threat has shrunk considerably as temperatures have cooled into the 80s this evening. Majority of the convection occurred along the coastal zones, while the inland areas have yet to be worked over. The lingering mixed-layer buoyancy may still pop a few showers and storms along leftover outflow for the next couple of hours before activity quiets completely. Typical muggy, mild night tonight with low temperatures in the mid/upper 70s. Strengthening and deepening westerly flow will focus a slot of drier air across NE FL, generally south of I-10 tonight. The westerly flow appears to be strong enough to keep the Atlc sea breeze locked up along the coast. Ultimately, this moisture stratification will set up a differntial-heating boundary east-to- west along the Interstate which will act in tandem with a lingering surface trough to focus the bulk of Saturaday`s storm activity initially along and north of I-10. Outflow may attempt to surge south into areas south of I-10 late in the day, bringing storm chances during the late afternoon and early evening. The westerly flow appears to be strong enough to keep the Atlc sea breeze locked up along the coast. Highs Saturday will peak in the mid 90s, pushing heat index values into the 105- 108F range during the mid afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Not much change to the pattern through Saturday, with surface high pressure remaining east of the Florida Peninsula and a west to southwesterly flow expected. This will therefore support convection mostly beginning near the Gulf Coast sea breeze around midday to early afternoon before spreading inland and likely peaking late afternoon and into the evening hours as the southwest flow hits the nearly pinned east coast sea breeze. Guidance is in good agreement with respect to a wedge of drier PWATS in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range spreading into northeast FL, which will likely keep convection more widely scattered to scattered, especially south of about I-10. As per usual, isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible Saturday, though will most likely take more substantial boundary collisions given mid level temps near or warmer than climo. Above normal temps will continue Saturday with the southwest flow, as highs in the mid 90s will be common except near the immediate coast. Overnight lows Saturday Night will be mild in the mid to upper 70s. Low level high pressure starts to break down Sunday as surface troughing/broad low pressure shifts southward across the Florida Peninsula. This will provide a day of more northwesterly continental flow but also increased mean layer moisture as troughing settles in. With this, convection is expected to be more numerous Sunday, especially over northeast FL as some drier air tries to mix in aloft in the northwest flow over interior southeast GA. 500mb temps look warmer than normal once again however, and therefore minor flooding due to heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard, with secondary being strong gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. Not any significant concerns regarding tropical/subtropical development with this area at this time, though will certainly watch close over the next few days. The presence of the low may also keep some convection going Sunday Night, especially over the waters/coastal region of northeast FL. Temps in the mid 90s will be common once again, with some readings in the upper 90s possible over interior southeast GA where PoPs are slightly lower. Sunday Night expect lows in the mid to upper 70s once again. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Troughing/weak low pressure will slowly move across the Florida Peninsula Monday and into the Gulf by Tuesday as high pressure builds back in from the northeast. As stated above, will certainly keep an eye on this area into the long term, as the Climate Prediction Center did include around 20% chance of tropical development with this disturbance over the Gulf for mid to late next week in their Week 2 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook earlier this week. Flow will become more south to southeasterly as high pressure will be positioned east/northeast of the region, keeping layer moisture high and therefore daily convection chances in the 60 to 80% range. Temperatures will likely remain above normal to start the long term period on Monday, though falling closer to climo for the rest of the long term. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 823 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Showers and storms continue to shrink in coverage. Southeasterly winds will begin to rotate back to a southwesterly direction around 02-04z and remain so through Saturday. The exception will be at the immediate beachfront where a sea breeze may push in (KSSI & KSGJ). Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions overnight followed by VFR cumulus and another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions are expected to hold after convective activity fades away tonight. There`s potential that a brief MVFR stratus develops during the mid morning hours as cumulus begins to build; lasting about an hour or two. Southwesterly flow will favor the Gulf sea breeze once again with early afternoon showers and storms at inland airfields (KGNV) and then expanding as it sea breezes merge during the late afternoon along the I-95 corridor. Don`t anticipate the Atlc sea breeze to progress inland much as the southwesterly flow remains in place. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Outside of occasional scattered thunderstorms affecting the marine waters each day, no significant winds and seas expected with high pressure over central FL through the weekend, and then dipping southward a weak low pressure trough slides down from SC and GA. This will weaken the overall wind flow late Sunday into Monday with winds of about 10 kt and seas dropping off to about 2 ft. Otherwise winds of up to 10-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft will dominate the waters. More of southerly wind flow regime may begin on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will move offshore of the coast in the afternoon and early evening hours most of the days. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. There may an atypical convection pattern developing over the marine waters Sunday into Monday due to the low pressure troughing. Rip Currents: Low end moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches with surf of about 1-3 ft/1-2 ft. Overall, a lowering of the general risk looks probable over the weekend as surf drops off further. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 74 94 74 / 40 40 50 20 SSI 91 77 93 78 / 60 20 40 30 JAX 95 75 95 76 / 60 30 50 20 SGJ 93 75 95 77 / 50 20 30 30 GNV 94 73 96 74 / 50 10 40 10 OCF 94 73 94 74 / 50 10 40 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$