633
FXUS62 KJAX 272316
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
716 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No major updates needed on the forecast this evening. Patchy fog
will likely develop over potions of inland northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia, clearing up around sunrise.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather continues as central high pressure shifts further out into
the Atlantic off the Carolina coast with PWAT values around
0.4-0.7 inches. Moisture has brought a few clouds into the area,
which will increase to partly cloudy in the late evening and
overnight. Daytime highs will get into the upper 70s to low 80s
with overnight lows cooling into the low 50s over inland southeast
Georgia and into the mid to upper 50s over inland northeast
Florida. Temperatures near the coast and the Saint Johns river
will see temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will
possible over inland areas, mainly along and eat of HWY-301
beginning in the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail through Saturday. The local
pressure gradient tightens as high pressure off the coast of the
Carolinas strengthens before shifting into the Atlantic. Breezy
southeasterly flow develops on Friday with sustained winds between
10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph possible by the afternoon hours.
Low level moisture gradually increases in the south-southeasterly
flow. Above seasonable temperatures continue with highs ranging
from the upper 70s along the coast and the low/mid 80s inland.
Friday night lows will be in the upper 50s inland to the low 60s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A southern stream shortwave aloft progresses across the northern
Gulf coast and across the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Continued south-southwesterly flow ushers in a warm, tropical
airmass allowing precipitable Water (PWAT) values to rise into the
1.3-1.7 inch range and dewpoints into the 60s. Scattered to
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms spread across the area
late Saturday night into Sunday. Some thunderstorms may be gusty
along the I-95 corridor due to additional lift from the sea breeze
collision. Then, a surface low pressure and associated cold front
sweep through the SE US Monday into Tuesday. Pre-frontal
convection is expected to move across the moist and moderately
unstable airmass over the region Monday afternoon into night.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with this
system with the best chances of severe weather across SE GA. The
frontal boundary gradually shifts southward on Tuesday with
showers developing along the boundary. A strong upper ridge builds
over the region mid-week rising highs into the low 80s to around
90 area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all the sites except GNV, which has
a chance of patchy fog lowering visibilities pre-dawn to MVFR
level. Gusty southeasterly winds will pick up mid morning
tomorrow through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Winds continue out of the north-northeast today, shifting to be more out
of the southeast by Friday as central high pressure moves east
out into the Atlantic off of the Carolina coast. Winds will shift
southward later this weekend ahead of an advancing cold front that
will be entering the southeastern states early next week.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible across our
local waters late Saturday night and into Sunday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for rip current at all area beaches
today and tomorrow with a high risk for northeast Florida beaches
over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A dry air mass will remain over our region Today with critical
minimum relative humidity values this afternoon in the 20 to 30
percent range. Surface and transport winds will shift to east-
northeasterly Today, with breezy winds expected along the I-95
corridor throughout the day. Good daytime dispersions are forecast
area-wide on Today. Low level moisture increases in the onshore flow
rising RHs out of critical range on Friday. Breezy southeasterly
transport winds develop on Friday leading to high daytime dispersions
area-wide. Lingering breezy transport winds and elevated mixing
heights will lead to another high dispersion day on Saturday. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms move across the area early Sunday morning
into Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  75  62  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  80  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  59  78  63  79 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  54  83  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  55  84  59  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$