146
FXUS62 KJAX 241212
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
812 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 812 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

IFR conditions at the Duval County terminals and SGJ will quickly
improve to MVFR at these terminals around or shortly after 13Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least
16Z at SSI and GNV. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop south of the Interstate 10 corridor early this afternoon,
with activity potentially expanding northward during the mid to
late afternoon hours. Highest confidence for impacts this
afternoon will be at the GNV and SGJ terminals, where TEMPO groups
were used through sunset for briefly gusty surface winds and IFR
visibilities during heavier downpours. PROB30 groups for briefly
gusty surface winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours
were maintained late this afternoon through early this evening at
the Duval County terminals. Confidence was only high enough for a
vicinity shower mention after 17Z at SSI, where VFR conditions
should otherwise prevail. VFR conditions should then prevail at
the northeast FL terminals after 02Z Monday, with MVFR to IFR
visibilities expected to develop during the overnight and predawn
hours at VQQ and GNV. Northwesterly surface winds will develop
towards 13Z at the regional terminals, with speeds increasing to
5-10 knots by 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will shift
surface winds to northeasterly around 10 knots at SSI and CRG by
20Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

One more day of unsettled weather today for most of the area as a
weak cool front remains stationary or drifts southeastward as a
mid/upper level trough across the southeast CONUS deepens slightly
through tonight. The frontal boundary will more or less hang up
across northeast FL today, close to the FL/GA line, and a weak low
forms off the SC coast and moves northeastward. Low level flow at
5-10 kt is generally northwest over southeast GA and westerly
over northeast FL, with mean 0-6 km westerly winds up to 10-15 kt,
weaker over inland southeast GA. Deepest moisture of about 2.2
inch PWAT remains over northeast FL and lowering to about 1.7-1.8
inches over inland southeast GA this afternoon as drier air moves
in from the northwest behind the departing sfc low off the SC
coast and thanks to the upper trough moving into the area.

Still looking at a locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding threat
for northeast FL today into tonight. Overall, the tropical- like
airmass and the warm cloud depths of about 13500 ft should lead to
efficient rain producers. The WPC highlights a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for northeast FL. Very localized rain amounts
of 2-4 inches possible. The higher-end amounts look more probable
south JAX and east of US Highway 301. As far as thunderstorms,
the temps aloft cooling only slightly but the shear (estimated
near 15-25 kt) trends upward compared to prior days. This could
result in a couple of stronger and a bit more organized storms.
Gusty winds and possibly a funnel cloud or two is possible given
the elevated MLCAPE, low level vorticity, and frontal boundary
being a focus for storms. Max temps today mostly in the upper 80s.

Tonight, scattered convection will be ongoing in the evening across
northeast FL while much less activity will be over southeast GA
where the drier air is located. The front will be diffuse over
northeast FL. The convection will dissipate over northeast FL by
midnight, but there may be uptick in showers and potential storms
coming off the Gulf into western Marion county later in the
nighttime. Another front will be advancing into central GA
overnight, and possibly on our doorstep by sunrise Monday but only
weak, isolated shallow convection possible with the secondary
front. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s again. Patchy
fog will be possible both this morning and also Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Diurnal convection will become more inhibited on Monday and and
Tuesday as drier air and more stable conditions settle in over the
forecast area following the passage of a late summer dry front,
bringing PWAT values potentially as low as 0.60 to 0.75 inches.
High temperatures for the beginning of next week will rise into
the lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into
the upper 60s over southeast Georgia and in the lower 70s for
northeast Florida and for areas along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Initially below average chances for diurnal convection will increase
by Friday with the highest chances for showers storms expected
over north central Florida as a second dry front presses down from
out of the north and stalls over Georgia with more moist and
unstable conditions ahead of the boundary. Daily high temperatures
will experience a mild cooling trend through the end of the week
with max temps dropping below the seasonal average.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Weak, nearly stationary front, oriented southwest to northeast,
will be across the forecast area through tonight, and will slowly
drop southward Monday. Another front moves in from the north
Monday - Monday night. High pressure builds in from the north mid
week, Wed-Thu, resulting in flow turning north and then northeast.
Model guidance for seas is fairly in line with observations so with
current output, we will maintain the small craft exercise caution
headline for offshore waters. This may be able to be dropped
sooner if we have more observation but for now this covers the
combined seas of about 6 ft, well offshore. Otherwise, look for
some offshore moving t-storms today and Monday with gusty winds
and frequent lightning possible in stronger storms.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is shown for southeast GA beaches
and high risk for northeast FL beaches. Surf of 2-4 ft remain
possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A marginal risk of excessive rainfall across northeast FL today
with local amounts up to 2-4 inches near the St Johns River Basin.
Some localized flooding is possible. Noting that on some gauge sites
in the St Johns River Basin we have moved into action stage during
the high tide recently. One or two sites could reach minor for a
brief time, but not enough to trigger any coastal flood advisory.
We are also moving past the new moon phase so astronomical tides
are expected to be slightly lower later tonight with the higher
of the high tides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  70  91  65 /  30  20  10   0
SSI  86  74  90  72 /  50  30  30  10
JAX  87  72  93  71 /  70  40  50  10
SGJ  88  74  91  75 /  70  60  60  20
GNV  88  72  92  72 /  70  50  60  10
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  80  40  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$