328
FXUS62 KJAX 060619
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
219 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

SW steering flow develops today between Chantal lifting NNE of the
region and a mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge axis lifting northward
across the FL Straights. Precipitable water over 2 inches will
continue across NE FL while drier air in the 700-500 mb layer
combined with subsidence on the SW side of Chantal will limit
rain chances north of the I-10 corridor in the 20-30% range. The
highest rain chances of > 60% today will focus across our NE FL
zones where a 850 mb wake trough axis from Chantal lingers into
the afternoon under SW steering flow. Expect a resurrection of
Gulf Coast sea breeze convection by early afternoon expanding in
coverage and intensity as storms approach the Atlantic coast into
the early evening where pinned east coast sea breeze will be near
the I-95 corridor. Warm mid level temps, weak mid level lapse
rates and bulk shear < 15 kts do not favor severe storms today,
but a stronger storm will be possible where boundaries merge mid
to late afternoon between Highway 301 and the I-95 corridor of NE
FL where wet downbursts could produce gusts near 40 mph.

Convection will press offshore early this evening with mostly dry
conditions inland through the night except back toward the
Suwannee River Valley mainly after midnight through daybreak
Monday where SW flow could push a few showers/isolated storm
inland toward the I-75 corridor.

Temperatures begin a warming trend today with highs nearing the
low to mid 90s across SE GA and the FL Interstate 10 corridor. SW
flow also pushes the heat to the beaches with highs nearing 90.
The `cooler` location today will be the Suwannee River Valley
where morning cloud cover from Gulf convection will keep highs near
90 to upper 80s. Despite the warmer temperatures today north of
I-10, drier air will mix down dew pts in the upper 60s creating
peak heat index values of 95-100 deg. Overnight lows will range in
the 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Above average temperatures and below average precipitation chances
will be in place Monday and Tuesday as drier air moves in. With
southwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies for most of the day,
high temperatures will soar into the 90s area-wide, even at the
Atlantic beaches as the east coast sea breeze remains pinned to
the coast. Inland southeast Georgia will see high temperatures at
or just above 95 degrees both afternoons, however with lower
dewpoints, heat indices will generally max out at 100-105 degrees.
A few isolated areas may see heat indices above 105 degrees on
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Moisture increases on Wednesday through the end of the week,
enhancing precipitation chances in the afternoons and evenings
area-wide as sea breezes and boundaries interact. Temperatures
will gradually return to near normal throughout the week as well,
highs generally in the lower 90s with southwest winds continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Included TEMPO TS through 08z for GNV where convection was
approaching from the SW. Dry conditions are expected at other
terminals through 12z with only the typical fog possible at VQQ
between 07-11z. After daybreak, brief MVFR ceilings are possible
as diurnal cumulus pop and indicated SCT025 at this time. WNW
winds early this morning become WSW through midday, with a late
afternoon east coast sea breeze back winds SSE at SSI, CRG and
SGJ. Best potential for TS today (> 60%) at GNV where a more
dominant west coast sea breeze approaches through midday. Drier
air will limit convective chances north of Gainesville today, and
included PROB30s for now at JAX, CRG, VQQ and SGJ and left
precipitation out of SSI for now. Convection will press offshore
of the local coast this evening, with lingering debris clouds
through 06z fading in coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Westerly winds will continue to subside today Chantal tracks
farther north and away from the local waters. High pressure across
south Florida builds northward across central Florida through
mid-week with a surface trough lingering across Georgia.
Southwesterly winds prevail with an afternoon sea breeze along the
coast.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk today and Monday for all
SE GA and NE FL beaches, peaking in the afternoon with the east
coast sea breeze and onshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  74  96  74 /  30  20  30  10
SSI  89  76  91  77 /  30  10  20  10
JAX  93  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  10
SGJ  90  74  91  75 /  50  20  40  10
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  70  20  50  10
OCF  90  74  90  74 /  70  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$