198
FXUS62 KJAX 101037
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
537 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early this morning...Still monitoring for a very low chance of a
few snow flurries possible across inland SE GA to the NW of
Waycross towards sunrise as mid level moisture increases and cloud
decks lower to around 8000-10000 feet, which will likely produce
Virga across this region, which will likely not reach the ground
across inland SE GA, but cannot rule out this possibility.

Today...Cold and Frosty conditions at the surface around sunrise
will slowly be over-run by moisture in the mid and high levels
with increasing cloudiness through the morning hours. Still
expecting mainly dry conditions for most of the Northeast Florida
through the day while moisture levels increase in the mid levels
across SE GA to bring rain chances there by the afternoon hours.
Southeast winds will increase through the day at the lower levels
and will push Max Temps into the 60s across NE FL, but likely only
reaching into the 50s across SE GA by the afternoon hours.

Tonight...Developing low pressure center along the North Gulf
Coast/FL panhandle region will track quickly across SE GA and into
the Carolinas by sunrise Saturday morning. This will lead to
breezy South to Southwest winds and widespread light to moderate
rainfall spreading across the entire area, but not expecting any
thunderstorm activity due to the limited surface instability. The
trailing frontal boundary will switch winds to West-Northwest
towards morning and low temps should end up in the 40s across SE
GA and lower/middle 50s across NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 217 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Lingering showers should begin to clear the area by mid-morning on
Saturday as cold front clears through NE FL, bringing a dry and
cold airmass into the region. Daytime temperatures on
Saturday/Sunday from the low 50s to lows 60s. Northwesterly flow
will usher in colder temperatures during the overnight hours on
Saturday, with temperatures anticipated to drop into the upper 20s
over SE GA and the lower to upper 30s over NE FL. This will setup
another night of Freeze conditions Saturday night for southeast
Georgia and portions of the Suwannee Valley region of NE FL. A low
pressure system shifting over the Great Lakes region, will begin
to drag an associated cold front towards the eastern CONUS on
Sunday. Showers will begin to move into the area ahead of the cold
front during the overnight hours into the upcoming work week.
Sunday night is not expected to be as cold as Saturday night, as
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, with lows in
the mid 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Showers ahead of an approaching cold front should begin to clear
to the south-southeast of the area by Monday evening.
Northwesterly flow will become established after the cold front`s
passage, allowing for cold and dry air to move into the region for
much of the upcoming week. Freeze and frost headlines will likely
be needed each night for portions of the region. Currently,
Wednesday night looks to be the coldest of the upcoming week, with
current guidance suggesting this is when we will likely see
widespread Frost for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conds still on track early in the TAF period as high clouds
continue to overspread the region with light/variable winds. SE
winds will increase to around 10 knots in the 16-17Z time frame as
clouds continue to lower and thicken but remain VFR through the
afternoon hours. After sunset in the 00-02Z time frame South winds
will increase to 12-14 knots with gusts of 18-21 knots expected
and cloud decks lower to 3000-5000 ft just prior to the onset of
rainfall with approaching low pressure system. As rainfall starts
to impact the TAF sites in the 03-06Z time frame expect slightly
greater chances of MVFR CIGS to develop, then more likely MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS in light to moderate rainfall in the 06-09Z time frame
as the winds shift to the West and decrease slightly into the
10-12 knot range with gusts to 15-18 knots through the end of the
TAF period with widespread MVFR CIGS remaining intact.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

Onshore flow slowly increases today ahead of developing low
pressure system over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and becomes
southerly tonight as low pressure passes to the north of the local
waters with further increases to 20-30 knots and frequent gusts to
gale force are expected over the offshore waters Tonight, so will
upgrade to a Gale Warning, while keeping solid Small Craft
Advisory headlines for the nearshore waters with occasional gusts
to gale force at times. Winds will slowly decrease on Saturday as
low pressure pulls away from the region. Weak high pressure builds
into the region for Sunday with no headlines expected over the
waters. Next frontal system pushes across the waters late on
Monday with another increase to Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected as strong and cold offshore flow returns Monday Night and
continues through Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today as onshore flow
increases ahead of approaching low pressure system with
surf/breakers into the 2-3 ft range, then becoming low to moderate
over the weekend as flow becomes more offshore and weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  42  51  27 /  40 100  20   0
SSI  58  48  57  34 /  20 100  30   0
JAX  62  50  56  33 /  10  80  30   0
SGJ  63  53  60  39 /  10  70  30   0
GNV  66  53  57  34 /  10  90  20   0
OCF  68  54  61  36 /  10  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ033-038-124-
     132-137-140-225-237-240-325-340.

     Frost Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-133-138.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Saturday
     for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM to 9 PM EST this evening for
     AMZ470-472-474.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$