208
FXUS62 KJAX 071345
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
945 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains largely on track through the morning with
scattered showers and storms developing this afternoon with
stronger developments anticipated over southeast Georgia with a
second wave of convection forming later on tonight. Breezy winds
will be mainly out of the southwest today acting to pin the east
coast sea breeze closer to the shoreline. High temperatures for
this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index
values rising to be above 100 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Westerly steering flow will continue to keep convection suppressed
below normal levels with just scattered showers and storms
expected today as the East Coast sea breeze will remain pinned
close to the coast. This will lead to Hot and Humid conditions
with highs in the lower to middle 90s, while the westerly flow
will push the heat all the way to the beaches with peak heat
indices around 105F this afternoon. The faster westerly flow will
still lead to isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds
the main threat, especially across SE GA during the afternoon and
evening hours. Above normal temps will continue tonight with lows
only falling into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along
the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

High surface pressure over the area Sunday and Monday will bring
winds out of the southwest, helping to pull in moisture in from
the Gulf and aid the Gulf coast seabreeze to make its way well
inland. This moisture coupled with diurnal heating and seabreeze
convergence will create unstable conditions and help drive
afternoon convection. The Storm Prediction Center has southeast
Georgia under a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms Sunday
as shortwaves are expected to move through the area, allowing for
the development of stronger storms. The main concerns with these
stronger storms will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. High daytime temperatures will be in the
low to mid 90s over northeast Florida and in the upper 80s to low
90s over southeast Georgia. Overnight lows will dip into the low
to mid 70s. Early morning patchy fog will be possible in areas
that received rain each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

High pressure and moisture from the Gulf continues into the long
term, helping to keep the wet weather pattern going. Seabreeze
convergence and diurnal heating will be the main driver for
afternoon convection. Some stronger storms will be possible as
upper level shortwaves move across the area. Daytime high
temperatures will be above seasonal average at the start of the
week and cool to near normal by mid week as winds begin to shift
from the southwest to south to southeast. Daytime highs are
expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over southeast Georgia
and low to mid 90s over northeast Florida with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s at inland locations with areas along the
coast staying slightly warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions for sites by midmorning with low
chances of afternoon storms in westerly flow today and rainfall
chances remain below 50 percent so have included PROB30 groups for
all TAF sites, mainly in the 19-01Z time frame. Potential for
reported obscurations and lower ceilings at Cecil near the latter
portion of the forecasted period by Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula through early next week, with this
feature maintaining a prevailing offshore wind flow across our
local waters. Showers and thunderstorms will develop inland early
each afternoon and will progress eastward across our local waters
during the mid to late afternoon hours each day. Strong to severe
storms will be possible late in the afternoon hours on Sunday and
Monday, especially across the Georgia waters. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning strikes and torrential downpours. A frontal boundary
will stall to the northwest of our area towards midweek, with
Atlantic high pressure then expected to lift northward late next
week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk this weekend in the offshore flow and weak
sea breeze along the coast with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  90  72 /  40  30  80  50
SSI  90  77  92  75 /  30  30  70  50
JAX  95  75  94  74 /  30  30  70  40
SGJ  95  75  94  74 /  40  20  70  30
GNV  94  74  94  73 /  30  10  60  20
OCF  94  73  92  73 /  20  10  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$