735
FXUS62 KJAX 011039
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
639 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Broad low level troughing extends from the Carolinas southwest into
the FL panhandle. PWATs on the SPC analysis remain up near 2 to 2.5
inches, with the highest values over southeast GA. An area of
stratiform rain is pushing southward over our GA zones as earlier
convection just north of the area weakened, and is pushing southward
given the northerly mid to upper level flow. The trough will
continue to sag southward today with daytime heating and sea
breezes, and plentiful moisture will lead to numerous to widespread
showers and storms, most numerous over parts of southeast GA and
inland northeast FL. Given the signal from HREF and WPC slight risk
of excessive rain, have introduced a flood watch 2pm-10 pm for part
of our southeast GA zones. The area counties in place for the watch
consist of Wayne, part of Glynn, Brantley, and Pierce. It`s possible
this could be expanded a bit but confidence was not high enough to
include more areas. The rainfall amounts in the watch are up to 1-3
inches, and some areas of 4-5 inches appear likely. For the rest of
southeast GA and parts of northeast FL, locally heavy rainfall
certainly possible due to the very moist airmass with the 00z and
12z JAX soundings sampling 2.3 and 2.1 inches, respectively. Also,
given the moist and daytime heating, locally strong to briefly
severe wind gusts are possible and SPC has southeast GA and
northeast FL in a marginal risk of severe storms. Heat indices may
near heat advy criteria today but precip and cloudiness will largely
prevent criteria from being met. HIghs generally in the lower 90s
anticipated.

Tonight, numerous showers and storms look to be ongoing in the
evening, especially inland, as the trough axis shifts notably into
southeast GA and northerly FL after midnight and toward dawn.
However, there is not great agreement in the Convective Allowing
Models (CAM) so this part of the forecast already becomes low
confidence. Mostly cloudy skies may slowly improve overnight but
lows again will be mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Pattern of scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue
through midweek as the weakening frontal boundary stalls to the
north over Georgia. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy
rains with a potential for localized flooding as PWAT values ahead
of the frontal boundary will measure between about 2.2 to 2.6 inches
through midweek. High temperatures for this period will be in the
90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and
for inland areas of southeast Georgia north of Waycross. Overnight
low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas
and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat advisory conditions
may be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as heat index levels rise
to 108 and above during peak daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Diurnal convection will become less widespread By Thursday and
Friday as high pressure situated to the northeast acts to draw drier
air over the forecast area from out of the north. Models currently
show some disparity as to the placement of drier air by the end of
the weekend, with a potential for more widespread diurnal convective
developments on Sunday. Daily high temperatures will rise to near
record high temperatures during the latter part of the week and into
the weekend, with heat index values expected to reach Heat Advisory
levels through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to persist off and on through
the morning hours with showers and storms building in by around
18-19z today. Potential for strong to severe storms forming over
SE GA and NE FL today with storms capable of producing heavy
localized rainfall. Convection will become more dispersed for most
sites by around 01-02z however overnight storms are possible,
however low ceilings and vicinity thunderstorms may persist for
SSI through into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Breezy southerly flow expected through tonight and then becomes more
east and southeast near 10-15 kt Tue through Wed as troughing and
sfc frontal boundary move into the area. The frontal boundary will
likely dissipate by Wed near the FL/GA line. Sfc high pressure will
build in from the north mid to late week. Winds and seas upwards of
10-15 kt or solid 15 kt through tonight, and seas of 2-3 ft. Typical
winds and seas Tue through Fri at near 10 kt and seas of 2-3 ft,
except higher near showers and storms.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate rip current threat with surf of
about 2 ft and side shore winds this aftn. Little change noted for
Tue but could end up a slightly lower threat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Deep tropical moisture over the region will lead to heavy downpours
from convection especially along and ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary/trough from the north. WPC has placed SE GA in a slight
risk of excessive rainfall today. Localized areas could see rain
amounts of 3 inches, with higher amounts of 5 inches possible. A
flood watch was introduced for a few southeast GA counties for this
threat. Refinements to the watch may be needed later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  74  88  74 /  80  50  80  30
SSI  90  78  89  79 /  60  60  80  40
JAX  94  75  92  76 /  60  50  80  30
SGJ  93  77  92  78 /  40  40  80  40
GNV  91  74  92  74 /  60  40  90  20
OCF  92  75  93  76 /  60  30  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for GAZ136-151>153.

AM...None.
&&

$$