863
FXUS62 KJAX 141815
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
215 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts:
  St. Johns River Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water
  levels again mid-week

- High Rip Current Risk Developing at Area Beaches. Southeast
  Georgia Beaches by this Evening

- Small Craft Advisory Returns Wednesday Outer Waters

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Generally high pressure dominates the region with pleasant temps
mostly in the 80s, except for mid to upper 70s along the coast
from onshore. A weak trough of low pres/re-enforcing backdoor
front expected to move into the region later tonight. This will
bring in some low level moisture and a bit cooler airmass going
into Wed. With the winds increasing a bit tonight, don`t expect as
much patchy to areas of fog as this morning so for now is not
included in the tonight forecast. Lows tonight again on the cool
side with some upper 50s inland and upper 60s coast under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Dry and warm conditions persist through the week under mid/upper
ridging building over the region. Breezy NNE winds on Wednesday
may bring a few sprinkles onshore to Flagler county. Large surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes shifts southeastward and
wedges down the eastern seaboard into Friday pushing another
reinforcing dry front through the area. This setup will maintain
the dry airmass (PWATs ~1 inch) over the region and breezy NE
winds. Surface high pressure then shifts off the southeast US
coast this weekend shifting the local flow to more southerly
resulting in some moisture return to the area. An upper trough
deepens across the central US as a cold front moves across the SE
US this weekend. The front will move across the area late Sunday
into Monday bringing our next chance for rain. Models continue to
disagree on the evolution of the upper trough and moisture return
ahead of the front. At this time, have isolated to widely
scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms Sunday into
Sunday night.

Temperatures will be around to just above seasonable with highs in
the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s inland. Cool
mornings continue with lows in the low-mid 50s for inland SE GA to
the mid-upper 60s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR with just some fair wx cumulus around 4-5 kft. With the
increased onshore flow on Wed morning, some brief period of MVFR
cigs is possible, but will leave in just SCT 2500-3500 ft for now
and noting that MVFR probabilities are under 50 percent per NBM
guidance. However, may eventually need TEMPO MVFR cigs for
coastal sites by 15z Wed. Did include some ocnl MVFR vsby for VQQ
around 06z-10z tonight. Winds are still light but will become
north- northeast about 4-10 kt rest of today, and a bit stronger
after 14z on Wednesday from the northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Current forecast generally on track with increased winds tonight
into Wednesday and based on combination of latest forecast and
prior wave forecasts, opted to raise a small craft advisory for
the outer waters by about noon on Wednesday, mainly due to seas
rising to about 7 ft. This will continue into Thursday night but
may be able to be paired back a bit by then. Nearshore water winds
and seas are more marginal for SCA so including exercise caution
statement headline.

Rip currents: Moderate to high risk of rip currents today and
becomes more widespread high risk Wed into Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Minor flooding stages are still being reached in the St Johns
River basin south of Duval county, mainly affecting parts of
Putnam and St Johns counties up to about 1.4 to 1.7 ft MHHW. The
levels are only slowly falling so keeping the advisory through Wed
morning at this time. Latest guidance shows we may again reach
some minor flooding levels both in the river and along the coast
as the northeast flow increases Wed into Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  78  63  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  62  81  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  79  65  80 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  60  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  61  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through late
     Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$