567
FXUS62 KJAX 012325
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
725 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No updates needed on the forecast. Showers and isolated storms
will linger through this evening. Low temperatures will be in the
lower to mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and calm winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Moist Southwest flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary across
the SE US will continue to kick off scattered to numerous showers
and storms over inland areas early this afternoon that will track
towards the East-Northeast and merge with the East Coast sea
breeze late this afternoon which will only push into the I-95
corridor this afternoon. PWATs around 2 inches will lead to heavy
rainfall as the main threat from storms today, mainly across urban
areas, while some stronger storms will be possible with gusty
winds as the sea breeze fronts merger along the I-95 corridor late
this afternoon into the early evening hours. Convection is
expected to push into the Atlantic by sunset with just a few
isolated showers possible through the overnight hours in the moist
airmass. More organized showers/storms will develop in the low
level convergence over the NE Gulf/FL Big Bend region late tonight
and towards sunrise, some of which could push will likely push
into inland NE FL/I-75 corridor, usually in a weakening manner,
although still could see some heavy downpours at times. Min Temps
tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and in the
upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast/beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Atlantic high pressure ridging retreats as a weak front shifts
southward into the SE US on Wednesday before stalling over SE GA
by Thursday night. The moist airmass (PWATs 2+ in.) remains over
the region continuing the wet and stormy pattern. With SW flow,
convection will start in the NE Gulf around sunrise and shift
onshore into the I-75 corridor by mid-morning. With the dominant
Gulf coast sea breeze, the sea breeze merger will likely be along
the I-95 corridor each afternoon/evening. Stronger storms will be
mainly focused along the sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions. Due to the juicy airmass, storms could produce heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flooding, especially for
urban and poor drainage areas. Convection wanes in the evenings
with the loss of daytime heating and shifts offshore into the
Atlantic. Highs will be around seasonable in the upper 80s to low
90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the FL/GA border into
the weekend, with diurnal showers and storms each day. Drier air
behind the front could potentially limit convection across SE GA
while the deep tropical moisture remains ahead of the front in NE
FL. Best chances for rain will be focused in NE FL along the
weakening frontal boundary and along the sea breezes. However, an
area of low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary this
weekend. Models are still in disagreement on where the low may
form which will greatly influence our rain chances for the
weekend, especially given the drier air to the north. NHC has
highlighted our area with a low (30%) chance of this low pressure
system gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics. We will
continue to monitor this system. Regardless if the low develops,
heavy rainfall and flooding remain the main hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight. Showers will move in from
the southwest Wednesday morning, first impacts GNV. Later on
thunderstorms will develop around 18-20Z, PROB30s are in place for
best timing of convection impacts to the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula
through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the
southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing
south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing
speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will
stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday
weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the
latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical
low pressure development along this front late this week and into
the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Southerly winds will create long-shore currents
today and build surf to 2 to 3 feet this afternoon. A Moderate
Risk continues at area beaches through today with a lower risk as
offshore winds increase Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  88  71  92 /  30  80  30  50
SSI  76  87  75  89 /  30  70  50  60
JAX  73  90  73  91 /  30  80  50  80
SGJ  73  90  74  89 /  30  80  50  90
GNV  72  88  71  89 /  20  90  40  90
OCF  72  87  74  86 /  30  90  50  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$