874
FXUS62 KJAX 090543
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Through This Evening. Coastal
  Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flooding along Northeast FL coast,
  ICWW, and the

- Rest of the St. Johns River Basin

- High Rip Current Risk for all Beaches

- Long Duration Nor`easter Develops on Thursday. Coastal Flood
  Watch for the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin (Moderate
  Tidal. Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters Thursday Afternoon
  through Sat Night. High Surf & Wind Advisories for Coastal
  Locations Thursday through Friday. Heavy Downpours and Isolated
  Thunderstorms Along the I-95 Corridor Thurs & Fri. Destructive
  Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches through the Weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Transition continues ahead of approaching frontal boundary well to
the North of the region, as locally the E-NE steering flow has
brought scattered shower activity to the NE FL coastal areas and
St. Johns River Basin from JAX southward this afternoon as this
low pressure trough will continue to slowly work it`s way inland
across NE FL through the rest of the afternoon/evening and
rainfall coverage should slowly diminish as drier air aloft mixes
in with this activity over inland NE FL. Further north across
inland SE GA, diurnal heating and an approaching pre-frontal
trough will start to kick off isolated shower activity late this
afternoon/evening, which will likely become scattered tonight with
the potential of embedded isolated thunderstorm activity, although
no severe weather is expected, a few heavy downpours and gusty
winds up to 40 mph will be possible. Overnight low temps will
continue at above normal levels with lows will only fall into the
upper 60s/near 70F over inland areas, and in the lower to middle
70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Some patchy fog will be
possible over inland areas before wind speeds start to increase
towards morning, otherwise expect lower stratus deck to develop
late tonight across SE GA ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A cold front will move south across the area Thursday. Strong high
pressure will build behind this front Thursday through the
afternoon. A number of impacts are expected with this pattern.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop due to convergence along the
frontal boundary. A few strong storms will be possible. Following
the front, a surge of winds will move down the coastal waters. Winds
are expected to become quite gusty along the coast through the day.
Due to the increased onshore flow, the potential for coastal
flooding will increase once again, likely beginning with the
morning high tide cycle Thursday.

The front will move to the south Thursday night, as an area of low
pressure begins to develop on the boundary over the western
Atlantic. Elevated onshore flow will continue through Friday night,
as the area of low pressure continues to develop. The gusty coastal
winds will continue for Thursday night through Friday night.

Due to frontal timing a wide range in temperatures is expected for
Thursday, with highs in the upper 70s over SE GA, and lower to mid
80s across NE FL. The onshore flow pattern from the northeast will
yield a broad range in temperatures Thursday night as well. Lows
over inland areas will be in the lower to middle 60s, with coastal
lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A few locations in inland SE GA
could dip into the upper 50s Thursday night. Below normal
temperatures forecast across the area on Friday, with near normal
levels Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The area of low pressure will strengthen as it moves north northeast
of the area Saturday through Saturday night. Weakening high pressure
will stretch south into region on the back side of this system. The
gusty northeast flow will continue through Saturday night with the
greatest chance for precipitation over eastern counties.

A fairly weak high pressure ridge will build overhead Sunday into
Monday, with dry weather expected and mainly clear skies.

A cold front will move southeast across area Monday night. The
boundary will move through dry, and the airmass behind it will help
to reinforce the dry airmass.

Weak high pressure will then be the prevailing weather feature
through Wednesday, with dry weather continuing.

Temperatures will trend below normal this period over the weekend,
then near to above next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conds and light winds with chances of MVFR stratus/fog at VQQ
in the 06-10Z time frame and in the 08-12Z time frame at GNV.
Surge of NE winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with increasing rainfall
chances will begin at SSI in the 11-12Z time frame around 15Z at
the JAX metro TAF sites and to GNV by the 16-17Z time frame.
Shower chances begin to decrease along inland locations near 00Z.
CIGS will begin to trend lower towards IFR during the late TAF
period for inland areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A strong cold front will enter the southeastern states tonight,
with this boundary crossing the Georgia waters early Thursday
morning and the northeast Florida waters by late Thursday morning.
Strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes in the wake of
this front on Thursday will move eastward towards New England by
Friday morning, with this feature wedging down the southeastern
seaboard. Northeast winds will quickly strengthen on Thursday as a
coastal trough sharpens over our near shore waters, with showers
and embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage throughout our
local waters through Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will
develop Thursday morning, and a Gale Warning has been posted from
Thursday afternoon through Saturday night. Low pressure will then
develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf Stream waters
adjacent to our region on Friday, with this feature gradually
strengthening as it moves northward towards the Carolinas this
weekend. Strong north-northeasterly winds and building, very rough
surf will create dangerous conditions throughout our local waters
from Thursday night through early Sunday. Northerly winds will
gradually subside late this weekend into early next week, with
elevated seas also likely slow to subside across our local waters.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions are expected to develop on Thursday and continue
through the upcoming weekend as surf/breakers building into the
8-12 ft range from Friday onward into the weekend. Severe beach
erosion is expected to develop during times of high tide from late
Thursday through the upcoming weekend as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Lingering minor tidal flooding along the St. Johns River Basin and
along the ICWW along the NE FL coast through tonight and will keep
Coastal Flood Advisory in place. Have posted a Coastal Flood Watch
for all of the St. Johns River Basin and all of the NE FL and SE
GA coastline/beachfront locations from Thursday through the
upcoming weekend. Following the Local Nor`easter developing
Thursday morning there is low to moderate confidence in Moderate
Coastal Flooding developing with peak high tidal levels around 2
feet above MHHW along the St. Johns River Basin and around 2.5 ft
above MHHW for the NE FL/SE GA coastline/beachfront locations. By
Friday into the weekend, during the peak of the Nor`easter event
there is moderate to high confidence of reaching Moderate to
locally Major Coastal Flood level during times of high tide with
peak high tidal levels around 2.5 ft above MHHW along the St.
Johns River Basin and around 3 ft along the NE FL/SE GA
beachfront/coastline locations. Some of the latest PETSS guidance
shows some peak high tidal values of 3.5 to 4.0 feet above MHHW
from Friday into the weekend, but the PETSS guidance tends to have
a higher bias at longer ranges in extra-tropical events, so this
will need to be monitored on trends in these forecasts going into
this Nor`easter event over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  59  73  60 /  30  40  30  20
SSI  78  66  75  65 /  50  60  70  60
JAX  81  67  76  65 /  60  60  70  50
SGJ  82  70  79  68 /  60  70  80  60
GNV  85  68  79  65 /  30  30  50  30
OCF  85  70  80  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ038-
     125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     Saturday night for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-
     333-633.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ038-124-125-138-233-325-333-433-533-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.

GA...Coastal Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$