184
FXUS62 KJAX 090852
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
352 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

...DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA THIS MORNING...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Sfc high pressure is to the north of the area with ridging down
into southeast GA and parts of inland northeast FL. TC Rafael
remains in the central Gulf of Mexico moving slowly westward.
Moisture levels have dropped since yesterday with PWAT values now
down around 1.75 inches over most of the area. Low level flow
remains pretty light from the east to northeast while we see a
backdoor front approaching the area this morning. Plenty of low
level moisture and subsidence to produce fog and earlier this
morning and we raised a dense fog advisory for part of the
southeast GA zones that`s in effect through 9 am. The advisory
may be expanded southward later this morning but some uncertainty
on the expansion given that northeast winds just above the sfc
will be increasing through 12z. The low level convergence along
with the frontal boundary itself and enhanced moisture with PWAT
rising up again to about 1.85 inches will spur isolated to scattered
shower activity so we continue to advertise chance of showers for
central parts of the area today and into tonight. Instability is
just too weak to include any t-storm but is possible a stray
t-storm could form over the offshore marine waters tonight.
Heavier showers will be possible mainly from St Johns county
northward through JAX Metro into coastal southeast GA. Could see
some locations pick up over 1 inch of rainfall through 12z
Sunday.

Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with the
showers possible today, with northeast winds becoming breezy for
the coastal areas. Gusts of up to 20-30 mph are expected for the
coast, which will last through tonight as well, mainly immediate
coast tonight. Temps will be lower than they were yesterday but
should still reach toward the mid 80s over inland northeast FL.
Not record today therefore. However, we will still be near the
record high min temps for Jacksonville and Gainesville but not
likely to be broken. Some light fog will again be possible later
tonight inland areas but more likely be a low cloud rather than
fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Mid/upper level ridging over the east coast of the US will begin
to flatten and shift into the western Atlantic waters downstream
of a compact shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes from the
upper Midwest. This will cause the strong surface high centered
near Long Island/coastal New England to shift SE into the open
Atlantic waters NE of our region while a frontal boundary remains
stalled near the FL and GA state line. A coastal trough will move
onshore into Southeast Georgia during the day and deliver scattered
coastal showers to much of the area. Not expecting T`storms Sunday
due to too much mid level dry air.  Winds will be breezy at the
coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph and 5-10 mph inland.

Highs will be in the low 80s for most areas with upper 70s along
the SE GA coast and near the Altamaha river with mid 80s along
and SW of I-75 into north central FL.

Sunday night, the frontal boundary will weaken as the high moves
ENE of the region with weak high pressure ridge axis stretching
westward into north FL. This will end the rain showers with very
light SE to southerly winds and clearing skies allowing for the
potential for late night fog developments. Lows will fall into the
mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to around 70 at the coast.

Monday, the previously mentioned compact shortwave will race into
the NE US will another shortwave on it`s heels arriving into the
Great Lakes with a cold front dragging through the TN valley and
central Appalachians. Meanwhile light low level south to SW flow
and moist low level airmass will allow for an Atlantic seabreeze
to shift onshore with some isolated showers in the afternoon along
I-95 and perhaps a T`storm over the waters. Highs will be in the
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Dry weather is expected this next week with a progressive upper
level pattern bringing in a series of cold fronts. The first
cold front will arrive Tuesday morning and may bring a quick
shower, but not expecting organized coverage with light northerly
winds turning northeasterly by evening and staying breezy overnight
into Wednesday as strong high pressure briefly wedges down the
SE US coast. The second cold front, driven by a negatively tilted
trough bowling through the Great Lakes into the NE States will
push a moisture starved cold front through Thursday with high
pressure then building in from the NW with a drier and cooler
airmass.

High temperatures will begin above normal in the mid 80s Tuesday
and steadily lower each day a few degrees with mid to upper 70s
area wide by the end of the week. Lows will likewise begin on the
warm side with 60s Tuesday morning and cool down to the low 50s
by Friday morning and then upper 40s possibly by Friday night
over NW portions of SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

LIFR has worked into SSI and VQQ recently and will continue to be
near that category into the morning hours. SSI will stay in low
conditions most of the day and into Saturday night. Latest
guidance and HRRR suggested some adjustments for the TAFs for
delayed timing of cigs and vsby, and slightly better vis and cig,
for rest of the TAFs. Low cigs and vsby problems should clear up
to some extent for JAX Metro TAFs but remain close to or at MVFR
cigs through the day time hours. We have VCSH at all sites for
now, though confidence was high enough at SSI to include a PROB30
group afternoon as a frontal boundary will drop into southeast GA.
Northeasterly winds around 10 knots with some higher gusts will
be expected at all terminals Saturday afternoon, with the
strongest "surges" likely to be at SSI and SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

For now, there is a light northeast to east wind and seas are
about 3-4 ft over the area waters. Dominant periods still are
about 8-10 seconds. The light winds and lower seas are short-
lived...as we expect winds and seas to increase as the northeast
winds strengthen in response to the backdoor front moving across
the area waters. We expanded the small craft advisory tonight to
all the waters given the agreement in the current guidance. High
pressure will then slide offshore of the U.S. eastern seaboard on
Sunday evening, allowing winds and seas to gradually diminish. A
weak frontal boundary will then push southeast across our local
waters on Tuesday, followed by strengthening north to northeast
winds and building seas through mid week.

Rip Currents: Surf is about 2-3 ft but will be picking up today as
the northeast winds increase. Opted to hoist high rip current risk
by this afternoon and then carried it through Sunday when very
rough surf and dangerous rip currents are anticipated. An elevated
risk also expected Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 9:
KJAX: 72/2020
KGNV: 72/2020

November 10:
KJAX: 73/2020
KGNV: 72/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  66  78  65 /  30  30  50  10
SSI  78  70  79  69 /  40  50  40  10
JAX  82  70  81  67 /  40  40  50  10
SGJ  82  72  81  69 /  30  30  40  10
GNV  84  67  83  66 /  20  10  20   0
OCF  86  68  85  67 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday
     night for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday
     night for GAZ154-166.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ135-136-
     153-154.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Sunday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$