238
FXUS62 KJAX 041412
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1012 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Broad low pressure system in the low to mid levels is located
offshore of the southeast U.S. coast, and there is a trough
located to the west and southwest across north central FL. Low
level flow over the area is northerly, with plenty of moisture per
PWAT satellite imagery and the JAX sounding. PWAT from the
sounding is 2.11 inches, or about 20 percent above normal.

Stratus and any fog are dissipating as of 10 AM, but plenty of low
level moisture to produce scattered to broken cumulus this morning.
This should allow for formation of a few showers between now and
noon time, and can`t rule out a thunderstorm too. During the
afternoon, expect sea breeze, convergence lines, and daytime
heating to lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms, with
general heading of cells to the south-southwest about 10-15 mph.
First occurrence of weak convection expected along the coastal
areas where convergence lines already have formed. Have adjusted
the POPs a bit for the update. Main threats from showers and
storms this afternoon will be heavy rainfall, localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Given the moist airmass,
there is a potential for strong downburst potential, but there are
no significant dry mid levels for a high chances. Otherwise,
little change in the max temps today. Should see convective
activity wind down this evening while moving southward into
central FL area. Some isolated showers and storms will remain in
the evening however.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Moist low pressure air mass is anticipated to be over and near the
forecast area, situated ahead of the stalled frontal boundary for
the start of this weekend, leading to widespread showers and
storms forming during daytime hours through the period with
intensity and dispersion depending on the positioning of the air
mass and upper level shortwaves passing through the region. High
temperatures this weekend will rise into the upper 80s and lower
90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower
70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Pattern for diurnal showers on storms is expected to carry over
into next week with convection developing in association with sea
breeze boundaries and areas of convergence, however the timing and
placement of the potential low pressure cyclonic system forming
ahead of the decaying frontal boundary still carries some
uncertainty with the NHC forecast currently showing a 60% chance
for formation by the end of the week, with a 40% of formation by
the beginning of the week. Daytime high temperatures will be
slightly above average with temperatures expected to be in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Areas of IFR and LIFR for inland areas with fog and stratus across
parts of northeast FL and southeast GA. Closer to the coast, mainly
MVFR conditions from early morning stratus and fog. These conditions
will lift over the next couple of hours and then expect scattered
to broken MVFR cumulus, with the MVFR cigs occurring at times until
at least 16Z. Scattered showers and storms expected by early to
mid afternoon, with storms generally heading southward about 10-15
kt. We have PROB30 TSRA groups for now for most of the TAFs with
MVFR conditions indicated. Showers and storms will be fading and
then dissipating after 22z/23z. Another potential period of low
stratus and some fog after midnight and was conservative showing
that chance given the uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

A front will stall and linger over the local coastal waters today
through the weekend. An area of weak low pressure will develop
along the frontal boundary late tonight or Saturday, and the low
is expected to meander over the coastal waters through Sunday.
Elevated winds and seas could reach Small Craft Advisory
conditions mainly across Georgia waters this weekend. The low is
expected to lift northward away from the local waters late Sunday
or Monday. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system
to see if the low will become a tropical or subtropical
depression. As the low departs Monday into Tuesday, a weak trough
will linger across Georgia as high pressure builds northward
across the Florida peninsula.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is expected through the
holiday weekend with a low high risk possible for SE GA beaches
Saturday if the coastal low approaches the local coast. Elevated
surf will generally be 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft breakers possible along
the SE GA Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  88  71 /  40  10  70  20
SSI  87  76  85  75 /  50  30  80  30
JAX  90  74  88  73 /  60  30  90  30
SGJ  87  74  86  73 /  60  30  90  30
GNV  91  72  89  71 /  80  20  90  20
OCF  91  74  88  73 /  90  30  90  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$