872
FXUS62 KJAX 300528
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
128 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A moisture boundary over northeast Florida will bring chances for
showers beginning in the morning hours mainly south of I-10. As
temperatures increase through the day, showers look to increase in
coverage and make their way north. Southeast Georgia remains
north of the boundary, with PWAT values below 1.8 inches in the
interior with any chances for precipitation developing along the
coast in the afternoon. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper
80s to low 90s, dipping down into the 70s for northeast Florida
and upper 60s to low 70s for southeast Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Tuesday...Above normal temps continue in West to Southwest flow as
leftover boundary/moisture belt remains across NE FL with
scattered showers and isolated storms expected along with highs
in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices peaking close to
100F. Inland SE GA remains mainly dry through the afternoon hours.

Tuesday Night...Next frontal passage approaches from the NW and
surface flow backs to the Northwest through the night and continue
a slight chance of showers/storm across NE FL with fair skies and
lows in the upper 60s across inland SE GA and 70s elsewhere.

Wednesday...Weak frontal passage takes place as high pressure
builds north of the region late in the day and shift low
level/surface winds to the Northeast and expect a lingering
slight chance of showers or a storm across NE FL with this
boundary as moisture belt gets shifted to the south of the region
through the day. Max temps still above normal in the mid/upper
80s, but not as warm as previous days.

Wednesday Night...High pressure settles north of the region and
low level/surface flow becomes East/Northeast at light wind speeds
and enough drier air builds in aloft to keep conditions mainly dry
during the overnight hours with lows in the mid/upper 60s over
inland SE GA and lower/middle 70s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Thursday...Stalled frontal boundary across Central FL with a
breezy East to Northeast flow developing off the Atlantic as high
pressure builds into the Carolinas and this will lead to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorm potential lingering across NE
FL, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours with above normal
temps continuing in the mid/upper 80s during the day and
lower/middle 70s at night.

Friday...Breezy East to Northeast flow continues off the Atlantic
and moisture levels increase as tropical low pressure starts to
develop in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. This will bring scattered
to numerous showers to much of the region with isolated storms
embedded at times which will bring locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds at times. Max temps will be closer to normal values in
the lower to middle 80s with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

Saturday/Sunday...Long range models coming into better agreement
that any tropical low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will
likely track across the Florida Peninsula just south of the local
NE FL/SE GA region, but this scenario will still bring the
potential for windy to very windy East to Northeast flow across
the local area along with local heavy rainfall bands at times,
mainly across NE FL, but still too early for any detailed amounts.
Max temps will likely fall to slightly below normal levels with
highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows falling into the 60s
over inland areas but remaining in the 70s along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Predominately VFR conditions for TAF sites for the forecast period
except for some reduced visibility and lower ceilings for JAX and
VQQ in the early morning hours around 8-12z. Showers look to
develop beginning at GNV around 11z moving east toward SGJ around
15z and increase in coverage with diurnal heating in the
afternoon. Some VCTS may develop in the afternoon but have left as
VCSH at this time due to lack in confidence in any strong
instability. Winds will be out of the southwest shifting to south
southeast with the afternoon sea-breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

South to southwest flow around 10 kt or 10-15 kt today with flow
starting to shift more westerly Tuesday as low pressure over NC
moves eastward with a trailing cold front through southeast GA.
This front will slowly push eastward into Tuesday night and Wed as
the sfc low moves offshore of the NC Outer Banks.High pressure
will build northwest of the area with flow becoming north Wed and
then northeasterly. Thursday, should see onshore flow with
gradually increasing wind speeds and building seas as high
pressure is due north of the area while broad low pressure tries
to develop over the Gulf of Mexico. An onshore flow continues
Friday with marine headlines and increased shower and possible
t-storm activity possible as pressure gradient tightens in
response to possible tropical low develop per NHC in the Gulf of
Mexico. Much uncertainty surrounding the Sat-Mon time frame and
given model disagreement.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
looks to continue today with moderate rip current risk for NE FL
Tuesday. with surf near 2 ft/2-3 ft due to dominant easterly
swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  69  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  88  74  87  73 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  91  73  90  72 /  30  10  20  10
SGJ  90  74  88  75 /  40  20  30  20
GNV  89  71  88  71 /  40  10  30  10
OCF  90  73  90  73 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$