111
FXUS62 KJAX 200034
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
834 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The forecast is on track with very isolated weak convection now
over inland northeast FL with MLCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and
activity mainly developing from boundary interactions. Any
convection expected to dissipate over the next hour or so. Have
kept the mention of patchy fog for late tonight, with possibility
of areas of fog from about Douglas to Jesup GA northward. Could be
some locally dense fog in that area by 5-7 AM Friday. Otherwise,
just some slight adjustments to the min temps tonight and trimming
the POPs back a bit for the update.

On the marine forecast, will have a slight bump up in the northeast
winds for Friday but overall little change expected. A few showers
will be possible well offshore tonight as a trough/weak front
moves southward.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure
building from the north. A few afternoon/evening showers and storms
possible, mainly north central FL and I75 corridor through this
evening, then a mainly dry night is forecast. Patchy fog will be
possible again Tonight. Lows ranging from the upper 60s for
interior SE GA to the mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure will build from the north northeast this period. A
weak inverted trough will develop over the coastal waters. This
pattern will yield an onshore flow. A few showers and storms will be
possible each day due to diurnal instability and convergence
associated with inverted trough. This activity will dissipate during
the evening hours each day, with dry nights forecast. Near normal
temperatures are expected during the day time hours. A wide range
in temperatures is forecast during the nights due to the onshore
flow. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to the mid 70s coast
each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure will be centered to the north northeast through
Wednesday, continuing the onshore flow pattern. This ridge is
expected to lift away to the north northeast Thursday, as a trough
of low pressure digs along the east coast of the US. Much of this
period will be dry, but precipitation chances will increase mid
week due to the trough. Daytime temperatures will be around seasonal
averages. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will vary across
area at night. Lows inland this period will generally be in the mid
to upper 60s, with lower to mid 70s at the coast.

The tropics are expected to become more active next week, with a
tropical system possibly forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico
and drifting northward. Use this weekend to restock supply kits,
review family evacuation plans and considering some shelter
maintenance like trimming trees. Monitor official tropical
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and
local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR is prevailing at this hour, as most daytime convection
continues to be very isolated. Cannot rule out brief SHRA impacts
for most sites through about 02Z, especially SSI, VQQ and GNV.
Patchy to areas of fog/low stratus are expected to develop
overnight and towards morning, with the highest impacts expected
at VQQ and GNV where IFR is forecast. Have included both SSI and
CRG at borderline MVFR/IFR conditions in this forecast package, as
restrictions will be possible at these areas as well overnight,
though confidence is not very high. Convection is expected to be
very isolated once again Friday, and therefore not included at any
terminal at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Cold front will move south of the area through Tonight. High
pressure will build to the north northeast Friday, and remain
through the early part of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Coastal flood advisory ongoing for St Johns due to high levels from
recent rains, along with tides and onshore flow. With the onshore
flow strengthening on Friday, this potential will increase and
extend down the NE FL coast as well. The Coastal Flood Advisory
includes both the NE FL coast, and St Johns river basin for Friday
into Friday night. The flooding potential will be greatest around
times of high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  87  67  87 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  72  83  73  83 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  70  86  71  86 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  72  86  74  86 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  70  88  70  88 /  20  20  10  10
OCF  71  90  71  90 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ033-038-
     125-132-137-225-325.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     FLZ124-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$