349
FXUS62 KJAX 031524
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1024 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue through Wednesday. High
  Rip Current Risk and High Surf (Northeast FL Beaches). Small
  Craft Advisories for Our Local Atlantic Waters through this
  evening

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues within the St. Johns River
  Basin through at least Wednesday Night.

- Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm Potential through Friday. Main
  Impact Location Today: Inland Locations Along and West of
  Interstate 75.

- Dense Morning Fog Potential Possible Early on Thursday and
  Friday Mornings.

&&

.UPDATE...

Late morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1031
millibars) centered to the east of Cape Cod, with this feature
extending its axis southwestward across the southeastern
states. Meanwhile, coastal troughing remains situated over our
near shore Atlantic waters. Otherwise, a lengthy cold front
stretches from Lake Superior southward through the Upper
Midwest, the Ozarks, and eastern Texas. Aloft...troughing that
was in place over our area during the past few days has split
into two cutoff troughs, with one of these features near Bermuda
and the other over the far southeast Gulf. Ridging aloft now
prevails over the southeastern states, with this feature poised
to deflect a potent shortwave trough progressing across the
southern Plains states northeastward. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that an unseasonably
moist air mass continues to overspread our region from southeast
to northwest, with PWATs now in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range
across most of our area. Coastal troughing and deepening
southeasterly flow continue to drive a few bands of showers
inland from the Atlantic waters towards the I-10 corridor and
the Okefenokee Swamp, with low stratus cloud cover remaining in
place across most locations in interior southeast GA.
Temperatures and dewpoints at 15Z were in the 70s across
northeast and north central FL, while dewpoints were in the mid
to upper 60s across portions of inland southeast GA.

Deepening southeasterly flow should push showers further inland
this afternoon, with strengthening subsidence provided from
the building ridge aloft allowing for skies to clear out along
the I-95 corridor this afternoon behind the inland moving
Atlantic sea breeze boundary. The southeast flow will pin the
Gulf coast sea breeze near or just west of Interstate 75, where
a potential sea breeze collision late this afternoon could
develop an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly over southern
portions of the St. Johns River basin. Both sea breezes should
continue to develop at least widely scattered showers this
afternoon, mainly near and west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor. Otherwise, stratus ceilings over southeast GA should
lift to a cumulus deck, and rising heights aloft should allow
for highs to climb to the low and mid 80s this afternoon at most
inland locations, while breezy onshore winds keep highs mostly
in the upper 70s.

Any showers or isolated thunderstorms that develop along or west
of I-75 later this afternoon should dissipate or push west of
the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers around or shortly after sunset.
Mid and high altitude cloud cover may increase after midnight
from west to east, while deep southeasterly flow potentially
advects isolated showers onshore along the I-95 corridor after
midnight. Low stratus cloud cover is also expected to increase
at inland locations towards sunrise, with lows only falling to
the upper 60s inland and the lower 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at Area Beaches through
  Midweek.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible at Inland Locations, Mostly on
Wednesday Afternoon and Evening.

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Early on Thursday and Friday
  Mornings.

Onshore flow will begin to shift southeasterly as an upper
trough approaches through Wednesday. Warm and humid conditions
with an axis of deeper moisture strung along the I-75 corridor
will foster enough instability for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon Wednesday. The cold
front associated with the upper wave will encounter resistance
by the stubborn ridging to the northeast resulting in the front
to slow to a stall to the west. With the front hung up to the
west, light southwesterly flow will develop across the area
leading to another diurnal afternoon of sea breeze convection
with the best chances shifting eastward between the I-75 and
US-301 corridors. The stalled front may begin to shift eastward
into the inland SE GA zones Thursday night as phasing shortwaves
dig across the lower Mississippi valley which may result in a
few showers through the overnight hours.

Each day will feature inland high temperatures into the mid 80s
and nearing daily record territory. Onshore winds will keep
the beaches cooler by about 5 degrees or so each day. Due the
boundary layer moisture and light winds, there will be an
increasing potential for widespread low stratus and fog
potential each night, which may result areas of dense fog during
Thursday and Friday morning commutes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warm and Unseasonably Humid Weather Continues through at Least
  Thursday Night.

- Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Friday.

- Slightly Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend.

- Strong Cold Front Possibly Approaches Our Area on Sunday
  Night.

A reinforcing upper trough is expected to sweep across the area
Friday night. Before the trough axis sweeps across the area,
there may end up being enough moisture pooled along the front to
support scattered afternoon thunderstorms along the prefrontal
trough as it pushes across the area. There remains uncertainty
regarding the amount of moisture, but, as confidence increases,
rain changes are likely going to rise on Friday. Though some
model discrepancies exist, it does appear that the weekend
should be mostly rain free but cloudy under the influence of
broad longwave troughing. Behind a second passing cold front and
on the backside of the longwave trough, deep northwesterly will
advect a much drier and colder airmass into the area next week
with below normal temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Showers will continue to move northwestward off the Atlantic
waters, periodically impacting the northeast FL terminals
through around 17Z with MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail at SSI, with VFR conditions then expected at
the northeast FL terminals after 18Z as showers progress further
inland, generally shifting west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along
the Gulf coast sea breeze near or west of I-75 corridor after
20Z, with confidence in coverage and timing too low to indicate
anything other than vicinity shower coverage at GNV through
around 00Z at this time. MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are
expected to develop at VQQ after 06Z, with confidence currently
too low to indicate IFR conditions during the predawn and early
morning hours at this time. Easterly surface winds will remain
sustained at 10-15 knots and gusty after 16Z at the regional
terminals, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots towards 23Z
this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast will
shift further eastward today as a coastal trough remains
situated over near shore waters. Breezy onshore winds will
maintain elevated seas through tonight, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions prevailing offshore and continuing through
around sunset for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast
Florida. Scattered showers will diminish in coverage this
afternoon, with another round of overnight showers potentially
developing overnight tonight. Seas will diminish to Caution
levels tonight for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast
Florida, while Small Craft Advisory conditions prevail offshore
through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will move into the
southeastern states on Wednesday night before slowing its
forward progress late this week. Southeasterly winds on Thursday
will shift to southerly overnight and then southwesterly on
Friday ahead of this front, followed by prevailing northwest to
northerly winds this weekend in the wake of the frontal passage.
A reinforcing cold front will then cross our local waters on
Sunday night and Monday morning, with high pressure building
over the lower Mississippi Valley providing a surge of breezy
northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current
risk at all area beaches today and elevated to high surf for
the entire coast. The highest breakers, around 5-7 feet will be
from Ponte Vedra south. Conditions gradually improve through the
week as onshore winds and surf decrease.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Easterly winds will prevail through Wednesday before becoming
light Thursday as a front stalls to the west. This will
translate to fair dispersions, except at the coastal/barrier
islands, today and Wednesday. Poor to low dispersion is more
likely on Thursday as transport winds diminish. Continued shower
chances each day with isolated thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. The stalled front will weakly
push across the area Friday followed by a stronger and drier
cold front this weekend setting up a cooler and drier couple of
days early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog
formation are possible for inland locations along and north of
the I- 10 corridor. Areas to widespread fog will be possible
during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday and
Friday across our area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Due to the persistent onshore wind, tidal levels within the St.
Johns River basin and it`s tributaries have remained steady,
reaching minor flood levels at high tide over the last 24 hours.
Recent peak water levels in this area have been roughly 1.55 to
1.9 feet MHHW. Minor flooding will likely continue into
Wednesday as onshore flow decreases into Thursday allowing water
to drain into the Atlantic. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for the entire middle and lower St Johns River zones.
One caveat is that the recent heavy rainfall over central FL may
allow elevated water levels to linger in the St Johns river
basin late this week as it drains northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  84  66 /  30  20  30  20
SSI  79  71  78  66 /  40  20  10   0
JAX  83  68  82  66 /  40  20  10   0
SGJ  80  72  80  68 /  40  20  20  10
GNV  84  69  85  67 /  40  20  40  10
OCF  85  69  86  68 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$