331
FXUS62 KJAX 100922
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
522 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...HURRICANE MILTON EXITING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL...
...DANGEROUS IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton remains a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale,
moving east northeast at 18 mph near Cape Canaveral after making
landfall last night near Siesta Key on the west coast of Florida.
Milton will exit off the east central Florida coast near the Cape this
morning maintaining hurricane strength as it moves east or east
northeastward into the Atlantic waters through the remainder of the
day with a tight pressure gradient between the tropical cyclone and
high pressure to the north keeping dangerous conditions across
northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast through this
evening.

Sustained Tropical storm force winds are ongoing across north central
Florida, the St Johns river, and along the northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia coast with gusts to hurricane force along portions
of the northeast Florida coast and St Johns river basin.

Storm surge inundation of up to 3 to 5 feet is expected along the
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia Atlantic coasts and around
2 to 4 feet in the St Johns River basin through the rest of today.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected with locally higher amounts
of 4 inches possible in Flagler county. With already saturated grounds,
flash flooding will continue to be possible through early afternoon
before the heavy rain bands exit off the coast today.

Stay in your shelter or safe location with your safety plan in place.
Be sure you have a way to get weather alerts and forecast updates.
Keep in mind that impacts can be felt far from the coast. Listen to
local officials and avoid travel unless ordered to evac.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Only change this morning in regards to hazards is the removal of
Tropical Storm Warnings across the Suwannee Valley and inland
northeast florida areas west of highway 301 in northeast florida
with a wind advisory in their place through this evening.
Similarly, the flood watch has been removed for the Suwannee
Valley and areas of inland northeast florida west of highway 301
as heavy rain bands have shifted to along the St Johns river to
the coast.

Hurricane Milton will track ENE away from the east central FL
coast into the Atlantic coastal waters later this morning with
hurricane force wind gusts at times along portions of the
Northeast Florida coast including Flagler Beach, Palm Coast,
and St Augustine into the southern St Johns river basin before
noon. Heavy rainbands will continue through late morning.

As Milton tracks away to the east this afternoon and evening we
expect Tropical storm conditions to continue along the coast and
the St Johns river through early evening due to the tight pressure
gradient over the area even as the system moves away with winds
more from the north. Inland areas will have breezy conditions
overnight with windy conditions near the coast trending breezy
in the 15-25 mph range close to sunrise. Heavy rain bands will
have ended this afternoon and exited into the western Atlantic
waters. Flooding rainfall impacts expected through at least early
afternoon with totals around 5-10 inches within the Flood watch
mainly in Marion, Flagler, Putnam, and St Johns counties with
locally higher totals possible.

Highs will be below normal today in the mid/upper 70s with lows
tonight in the wake of Hurricane Milton mostly below normal with
50s north and west of Jacksonville into SE GA, 60s along the St
Johns river, and low 70s along the NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton will track away to the east southeast Friday, as high
pressure builds from the north northwest. Troughing will linger on
the back side of Milton, leading to gusty winds at the coast, and
few showers possible along the Flagler coast. The high pressure
ridge will settle south toward the region Saturday into Saturday
night leading to dry weather.

Temperatures will trend below normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The high pressure ridge will stretch across the region Sunday. A
cold front will move southeast into area Sunday night. The front
will move through Monday into Monday night.

The front will move south of the area Tuesday, as another area of
high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build closer to
the region on Wednesday. This front is expected to pass through dry.

Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday, then a little above on
Monday due to a warm southwest flow. Below normal temperatures will
follow the frontal passage for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Hurricane Milton will move into the western Atlantic early this
morning, just south of area waters. Milton will then track to the
east southeast of the area through the day Today. High pressure will
build from the northwest Friday. The gradient between the high and
Milton, will keep elevated conditions in the forecast through
Friday. The high pressure ridge will settle overhead of the region
over the weekend. A cold front will move southeast across the area
Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High risk through Saturday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 514 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

SE GA: Major river flooding is ongoing along the Alapaha River
in Statenville and will continue through late tonight. Sites along
The Altamaha river at Charlotteville, Baxley, and Doctortown was
falling from crests in Minor flood stage and should lower to below
flood stage by late this week into this weekend. The Satilla will
crest within Minor stage by Friday.

NE FL: There is an increasing risk of river flooding at NE FL
rivers due to Milton`s heavy rainfall footprint through tonight,
including Black Creek and the upper Santa Fe. As flood waters
travel down the Suwannee River, backwater flooding up the lower
Santa Fe including at Three Rivers Estates will rise from Minor
flood stage toward Moderate flood stage late this week through
this weekend. Local river interests, please continue to routinely
monitor river forecasts over the coming days, especially for our
quickly responding rivers including the Black Creek basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  75  49 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  77  61  72  61 /  50  10   0   0
JAX  78  61  75  60 /  60  10  10  10
SGJ  80  68  76  67 /  80  30  10  10
GNV  76  60  78  59 /  50  10  10   0
OCF  77  63  79  62 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ024-124-125-132-225-232-325-425.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ033-038-133-137-138-140-237.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031-
     035-120-136-220-236-240-322-340-422-522.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for FLZ033-038-124-125-132-
     133-137-138-140-225-232-237-325-425.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ033-124-125-132-133-137-138-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ153-154-165-166.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-
     152-162-163-250-264-350-364.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for GAZ154-166.

     Storm Surge Warning for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-470.

     Hurricane Warning for AMZ452-454-472-474.

&&

$$