018
FXUS62 KJAX 081158
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
758 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today Most Local Beaches. High Risk Wednesday
All Local Beaches. Elevated Rip Current Risk through Thursday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday to Sunday. Main
Hazards: Locally Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds to 40 mph

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Breezy onshore/easterly winds today

- Passing gusty showers & inland mainly afternoon storms

- High Risk for Rip Currents Southeast GA Beaches & Elevated Tides

Taste of fall continues for southeast GA and northeast Florida today
with waves of coastal showers and increasingly breezy northeast to
east winds as a weak coastal trough develops over the adjacent
coastal waters. Low chance (< 10%) of a morning coastal thunderstorm
focused south of St. Augustine where deeper moisture resides near
the departing surface front across north-central FL. Through the
day, shower activity will expand inland with diurnal heating, but
convective depth will be limited across much of southeast GA and and
near and north of the FL Interstate 10 corridor as drier mid and
upper level air from the north filters across the area. Thus,
expected mostly diurnally driven showers into the afternoon for
locations north of I-10 while the better coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms focuses across north-central FL, generally
from St. Augustine toward Gainesville southward.

This evening, inland showers fade while coastal showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue as the coastal trough lingers offshore. After
midnight, the coastal trough begins to break down and weaken as
surface high pressure offshore of the mid-Atlantic region settles
southward. Could see an influx of shower activity toward daybreak,
shifting farther inland as the trough axis also shifts westward.

High temperatures trend a little warmer into today nearing 90 toward
the Interstate 75 corridor while breezy onshore winds keeps coastal
areas cooler with highs in the mid 80s. Tonight, lows will continue
to range in the 70s to near 80 toward the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

A cold front will sit over the FL peninsula through midweek,
weakening and dissipating by Thursday evening. The overall flow will
shift from easterly to southeasterly and eventually southwesterly by
Thursday afternoon as mid level ridging sits off the Atlantic coast.
With easterly-southeasterly onshore flow continuing on Wednesday,
shower and storm activity will push towards inland locations by the
afternoon hours. Wednesday highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s, with the coolest temperatures along the coast with the onshore
flow. As ridging develops over the western Atlantic, deep
southwesterly flow makes a return, bringing elevated moisture once
again with PWATs rising to the 2.2" to 2.4" range. The overall flow
will allow for the gulf breeze to push inland, which in turn will
direct showers and storms from west to east. By the afternoon,
mergers between the breezes will likely be along the eastern portion
of the area near the I-95 corridor. Thursday highs will be a bit
warmer as most locations will have temperatures in the lower 90s,
with mid 80s to lower 90s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

Southwesterly flow ahead of a frontal boundary as it begins to slow
and stall over central GA this weekend. Chances of precipitation
look to remain in the 60% range Friday/Saturday with the Weather
Prediction Center having the entire area under a `Marginal` risk of
excessive rainfall both days. Chances begin to trend down to the 30%
to 50% for a majority of the area with north central FL remaining in
the 60% range on Sunday/Monday. Temperatures will predominantly be in
the lower 90s through the upcoming weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR ceilings and occasional MVFR ceilings expected through 14-16Z
as moist flow between a coastal trough to the east and high pressure
to the north brings in periodic showers onshore and inland.

Northeast winds around 10 knots at the coast will increase to 12-15
knots with gusts to 25 knots while lighter inland winds 4-6 knots
increase by 16Z to 10-12 knots with gusts near 20 knots. Have VCSH
for all sites this afternoon with some MVFR ceilings as times as the
coastal showers move onshore as the trough remains east of the
terminals, but am including PROB30 groups for TSRA at VQQ, GNV, SGJ
while PROB30 groups in place for JAX and CRG for MVFR VSBY and CIGs,
while SSI will remain north of the better batch of showers this
afternoon with no PROB30 groups as dry air limits coverage there.

VFR conditions prevail after 00Z-02Z and shower chances inland will
diminish after 00Z while persisting at SSI through 06Z as the
coastal trough weakens and moves onshore the Georgia coast as high
pressure to the north shifts more to the northeast. Then, MVFR
ceilings will redevelop in the early morning hours at GNV, JAX, and
VQQ after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...


A coastal trough develops today and persists through Wednesday
morning with waves of gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
trough begins to weaken Wednesday night into Thursday as high
pressure builds northeast of the region. The high will then extend
across the Florida peninsula Friday into the weekend with a return
of southwest winds and the afternoon east coast sea breeze.

Onshore ENE winds strengthen today with building surf. With elevated
ENE wind surge over the waters, extended the high rip current risk
southward from southeast GA to included northeast FL beaches down
the St. Johns county coast. Flagler county remains under a Moderate
rip current risk today. Surf heights increase to 2-4 ft through the
evening. High rip current risk likely for all local beaches
Wednesday due to persistent onshore flow and elevated surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will be sit across central Florida through midweek
before weakening and dissipating by Thursday evening. Increased rain
and storm chances are forecast each day as onshore winds brings
morning coastal showers which will spread towards inland locations
throughout the day and increase in coverage. There remains potential
for locally heavy downpours through mid-week. Overall, dispersion
will be fair to good Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift to
southerly/southwesterly Thursday through the weekend as ridging
develops off the east coast.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Coastal water levels begin to increase this week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, guidance and observations
show that water levels will be near and just above the action stage
through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the
St. Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  73  90  72 /  20  10  60  10
SSI  87  77  87  78 /  50  60  60  20
JAX  89  75  89  75 /  40  30  50  10
SGJ  86  77  88  76 /  50  30  40  10
GNV  89  74  90  73 /  50  20  60  10
OCF  90  74  91  74 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-233-
     333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$