Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
994 FXUS62 KJAX 111752 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 152 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Earlier Showers and T`storms have lifted north of the Brunswick area towards Savannah along the upper GA coast with diurnal heating now creating a solid cumulus field over most of the area while some higher overcast remains along and west of the Suwanee river valley from Gulf convection along a remnant trough that extends northeastward north of our waters. Highest moisture fields today where PWATS are greater than 2.3 inches will keep lifting away to the north and west through this afternoon, but still hover around 2.00 inches. High pressure at the surface to the northeast will sink a little closer to the region over the western Atlantic waters and keep flow low level flow southerly between the trough and the high. This pattern will allow for the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes to move inland with scattered to numerous showers spreading from I-75 towards highway 301 through mid afternoon before merging with the Atlantic seabreeze. The interaction of the seabreezes and outflows could produce locally gusty winds of 40-50 mph. Less risk of localized flooding today, however, heavier rainfall rates in more intense T`storms could produce minor flooding concerns in low-lying and flood prone locations, especially where heavy rainfall has occurred over the past few days. T`storms will end sooner along the coast with partial clearing by mid to late afternoon and continue inland through sunset. Temperatures are rising into the 80s to near 90 and should climb into the lower 90s for most areas this afternoon to around 90 at the coast. This temperatures combined with dewpoints commonly in the mid 70s will create heat index values of 100-106 degrees, below heat advisory. Nonetheless, its important to take frequent breaks in the shade and to hydrate regularly if working outside or engaging in outdoor activities. Tonight, high clouds will linger after showers and T`storms have ended a little after sunset over inland areas with winds light southeasterly winds turning southerly. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s inland and the upper 70s near the coast and the banks of the St Johns river. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Diurnal convection will become less widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure ridging extends over the region from out of the Atlantic bringing drier air and less widespread showers and thunderstorms with developments forming primarily along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s through midweek. Heat Advisory conditions are a potential risk for this period as heat index values rise to be well over 100 degrees with during peak heating. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure will move through the forecast area and off to the west by Saturday with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the northeast by the end of the weekend. Developments will follow a more standard summer convective pattern through this period with showers and storms forming primarily with with the diurnal sea breeze. High temperatures through the end of the week and into the weekend will be above the seasonal average with max temps in the mid 90s. Heat Advisory conditions are possible during the extended period for much of the forecast area as heat index values potentially may rise to 110 and higher with daytime heating. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions with few to scattered ceilings at SSI 2.0-2.5 kft while ceilings scattered above 3.5 kft inland and at SGJ. SHowers will increase in coverage due to strong daytime heating and inward progression of the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes and additional lift along a weak trough extending from SSI west southwest to VLD and TLH. Have MVFR restrictions in place 19-23Z for T`storms with gusty erratic winds and heavy downpours at all terminals except SGJ as bulk of acitvity will be just inland from the site. South to southeast winds will be breezy 10-15 knots through 23Z, then settle to below 10 knots with showers ending by around 00Z. Lingering shower potential continues overnight at SSI, so keeping VCSH there. Light winds inland after 06Z with low MVFR stratus and patchy fog after 08Z at GNV and VQQ. Lighter winds 5-8 knots by late Tuesday morning at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 A weakening frontal boundary will lift north of the Georgia waters this afternoon and dissipate to the north this evening as a high pressure ridge builds north of the local waters through tonight and Tuesday with southeast flow continuing. This high pressure ridge will move over the local waters by Wednesday, then build south of the waters by the end of the week, with southwest flow developing. Winds and seas are expected to remain below headline levels this week. Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Rip Current Risk Today and Tuesday with surf/breakers 2-3 ft and onshore/SE flow continuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 73 93 / 30 40 10 40 SSI 80 91 78 92 / 30 40 20 40 JAX 76 94 75 95 / 20 50 10 60 SGJ 77 91 76 93 / 20 60 10 50 GNV 75 94 75 94 / 30 60 10 70 OCF 75 93 75 93 / 30 70 10 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$