779
FXUS62 KJAX 222005
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA TONIGHT...
...NIGHTLY FREEZES AND LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

The historic winter storm that has left an extensive footprint of
snow across the southeast is quickly lifting off to the northeast
this afternoon. The visible snow field extends into portions of
southeast GA, with the most substantial accumulations, greater
than an inch, along and north of US-82. Generally in that area
amounts have been reported around 2-4" with locally higher amounts
up to 5". This snowfield and the reinforcing cold arctic airmass
will lead to a very cold night with dangerous wind chills tonight.
Additionally, there is a concern tonight of refreezing snow melt,
especially where temps warmed into the mid/upper 30s under the
sun this afternoon in SE GA. This refreezing could lead to black
ice or slick roads which could be dangerous to travlers in the
area.

As depicted in the climate section below, the forecast lows tonight
are likely to fall well below daily record low temperatures tonight
from the Suwannee Valley northward. Given the snow field and
initially clear skies across SE GA, temperatures will quickly
fall below freezing with lows expected in the middle and upper
teens. Cold airmass will filter further into northeast FL with
lows anticipated to fall to the low and mid 20s across the
Suwannee Valley and inland portions on northeast FL. Further
south, lingering cloud cover will help keep lows from falling to
much with lows generally in the mid 30s.

The cold combined with the northwesterly winds will lead to
another night featuring low wind chills, potentially as low as
10-15 degrees in the snowy areas of southeast GA. Further south
into northeast FL wind chills will fall to the upper teens and low
20s again tonight. To highlight these dangerous wind chills, a
Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect tonight along side a
(Hard) Freeze Warning for areas north of a line from Gainesville
to Ponte Vedra.

As we round out the early morning hours, a coastal trough will
begin to take shape off the coast. Convergence along this feature
will amplify the low stratus in place and may develop a few cold
coastal showers toward daybreak into the day Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)

Cold temperatures continue through the end of the week, with high
temperatures only reaching the upper 30s to 50 degrees across SE
GA and NE FL Thursday, with a slight warming in temps Friday as
the sun comes out, however many locations will stay in the 40s.
Hard freezes and dangerously cold wind chills are forecast
Thursday and Friday nights, with lows potentially dropping just
below 20 degrees for parts of inland SE GA, with even areas near
the NE FL beaches dropping near freezing, Freeze Warnings and Cold
Weather Advisories will be necessary for most, if not all, of the
region. Isolated showers will be possible along the NE FL coast
south of St. Augustine on Thursday, however the rain chances pair
up with above freezing temperatures at this time.

There is concern for a re-freeze of standing water on and near
the roads, walkways, and tree branches, which can cause hazardous
travel conditions and power outages Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Temperatures will gradually warm up each day this weekend through
early next week, with most of NE FL hitting 60 degrees on Sunday.
Saturday night will be the last bitterly cold night, with lows
dropping into the 20s and lower 30s for SE GA and inland NE FL,
but wind chills will remain above Cold Weather Advisory conditions
at this time. A light freeze will be possible Sunday night for
portions of SE GA, but there are no freeze concerns Monday or
Tuesday nights. Only chances for precipitation during this period
will be north of I-10 on Monday as a front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

THe back edge of IFR cloud cover beginning to scoot southeastward
into NE FL. Cig improvements are likely, at least briefly, to
MVFR at NE FL terminals (except at KSGJ) between roughly 22z and
02z. MVFR cigs are more likely to stick around through the evening
but remains a medium chance (30-50%) of IFR at Jax Metro airfields
overnight. Northerly winds will continue to diminish to around 3-8
knots. A coastal trough taking shape tonight will reinforce IFR
conditions along the coast, specifically at SGJ tonight, where
there is potential for LIFR conditions after 08z. Elsewhere, any
low stratus (LIFR/IFR) ceilings should lift toward MVFR after
daybreak Thursday. Additionally with the trough development, there
will also be a potential for showers, mainly after 14z at KSGJ.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty northerly winds on the edge of an incoming arctic surface
high will gradually diminish tonight with elevated seas lingering
into Thursday. High pressure will shift east as another
reinforcing cold front pushes into the waters Friday night. As it
pushes through, northwesterly winds will increase, potential to
Small Craft Advisory levels Friday. Following the frontal passage,
another strong high pressure will build from the west and over
the waters through the weekend.

Rip Currents: High surf will continue a high risk of rip currents
today. As surf begins to lower, rip current risk will decrease
but is likely to stay high along at NE FL beaches Thursday.
Breakers will diminish from 6-8 feet today to 4-6 feet through
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and
minimum temperatures.

Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG),
Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV).

 DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low
 ------------------------------------------
 1/22 | JAX  | 41 (2022)      | 16 (1985)
        CRG  | 47 (1985)      | 18 (1985)
        AMG  | 40 (2022)      | 16 (1985)
        GNV  | 46 (2022)      | 17 (1985)
 ------------------------------------------
 1/23 | JAX  | 45 (1960)      | 25 (2011)
        CRG  | 48 (2003)      | 28 (2011)
        AMG  | 42 (2016)      | 20 (2011)
        GNV  | 48 (1987)      | 23 (1960)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  35  13  37  21 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  37  25  40  26 /  40   0   0   0
JAX  38  25  43  24 /  30   0  10  10
SGJ  45  36  47  31 /  60  20  20  20
GNV  41  28  46  25 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  47  32  49  28 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-136-220-
     225-232-236-322-325-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-
     422-425-522.

     Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for FLZ133-138.

GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-
     350-364.

     Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$