146
FXUS62 KJAX 120826 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
425 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS TODAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A deep south to southwest flow will continue today as a nearly
vertically stacked low pressure system over the south MS Valley
moves very slowly to the northeast. Numerous showers and some storms
are expected in the morning and early afternoon before a dry slot
begins to result in a drier pattern by the late aftn and evening.
Overall, lower rain chances expected in the afternoon due to the
affects of dry air aloft. The threat of some strong to briefly
severe storms remains today with a hail and wind threat. Have seen
some brief rotation with storms early this morning but likely tied
to the lifting warm front. With time, this threat of a brief tornado
will diminish through the day. May see a brief line of showers and
storms, oriented north to south, along the advancing cold front later
in the aftn but guidance differs on how well this system remains
intact. Rain chances should also decrease tonight as main dynamics
and deep moisture lifts out to he northeast. High temperatures will
be in the lower 80s, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
Can`t rule out some light patchy fog late tonight given lighter
winds and moist grounds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Showers and storms start easing up as the surface front continues
to move east out into the Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday. An
upper level trough will move from west to east across the area,
providing some instability along with the afternoon sea-breeze, to
support some scattered showers over the area. Rain chances will
continue to diminish into Wednesday as high pressure and dry air
fill in behind the passing front.

Daytime highs will steadily increase from near normal temperatures
(low to mid 80s) Tuesday to above normal (mid to upper 80s) by
Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows continue to hold steady in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Dry high pressure settles over the area Thursday as the upper level
trough continues its trek east away from the area. Daytime highs
will continue to increase above the seasonal average and into the
90s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will will be in the mid
to upper 60s with some areas seeing temperatures in the low 70s
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Rounds of showers and some embedded thunderstorms are expected
this period with occasional IFR and MVFR conditions. May be a
brief lull in the morning but one or two additional good chances
of showers and storms are expected in the afternoon and evening.
Prevailing rain and TEMPO groups were indicated for lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Winds have picked up over area waters and guidance shows marginal to
low-end small craft advisory conditions for winds. Given the decent
support from the current guidance, opted to include all waters in
the small craft advisory today. Winds will turn more offshore by
Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the area later tonight.
Largely offshore flow from the south and southwest will dominate
rest of the week with sea breezes also likely from about Wednesday
onward.

Rip currents: Rough surf and gusty winds will create a high risk of
rip currents at area beaches today. Elevated rip current risk on
Tuesday due to the prior event and occasional rough surf. Prevailing
offshore winds and lowering surf conditions should result in a low
risk or low-end moderate from Wednesday through at least Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  62  82  63 /  70  30  40  10
SSI  78  68  82  67 /  90  50  40  20
JAX  81  65  86  64 /  80  40  40   0
SGJ  79  66  85  66 / 100  40  20  10
GNV  81  65  85  64 /  70  20  20   0
OCF  81  66  85  66 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$