004
FXUS62 KJAX 071115
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
615 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mid-level ridge will build westward from the western Atlantic and
across the SE US in response to a strengthening deep-layer trough
digging into the SW US. This setup will steer Hurricane Rafael,
currently over the SE Gulf of Mexico, westward further into the
Gulf gradually dragging its tropical tail of moisture (PWATs 2+
in.) away from the region. Showers with embedded thunderstorms
will continue to stream across the moisture axis stretched across
Suwannee Valley and SE GA. Coverage increases during the day with
the daytime heating. Localized flooding will be possible across
inland SE GA for areas that recently received heavy rainfall. See
hydro section for more details. Convection wanes tonight with the
loss of daytime heating and the tropical moisture decreasing.
Warm southeasterly flow will push temperatures to approach record
high maximum and record high minimum today and tonight. Highs
will soar to the low to upper 80s. Overnight lows will upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

With Hurricane Rafael churning over the central Gulf of Mexico, much
of the lingering tropical moisture will make way for drier air
(PWATs < 2") to settle over the area. The continuing east-
southeasterly flow will shift to east-northeasterly by Friday
afternoon as a frontal boundary begins to shift south through the
local area. By Saturday afternoon, breezy winds will be felt along
coastal location with the highest winds expected during the
overnight hours into Sunday. Can`t rule out the stray coastal
shower as moisture moves onshore from the Atlantic. The frontal
boundary will clear the area on Sunday. Winds will begin to lessen
and shift to be east-southeasterly as the new week begins.

Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s over SE GA and
NE FL through this weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s for
interior locations Friday night, with slightly cooler temps during
the overnight hours on Saturday/Sunday. Lows in the low 70s along
coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

The start of the upcoming week through midweek is looking to remain
on the dry side. Though some tropical moisture may make its way
towards NE FL Monday/Tuesday. This would bring a chance for some
showers along the southern coastal locations of NE FL. Otherwise,
onshore flow will remain as winds continue from the southeast-
east. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal during this
period. Daytime highs in the lower/middle 80s and overnight lows
in the 60s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

MVFR/IFR cloud deck across the inland TAF sites and SSI will
gradually lift to VFR by 14Z. Best chances for showers with
embedded storms will remain mainly along and north of the I-10
corridor today. Have VCSH in for SSI, VQQ and JAX with a PROB30 at
SSI for potential heavier showers/storms. Southeasterly winds 10
kts or less prevail through the period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

High pressure retreats further into the Atlantic today with winds
and waves subsiding below advisory criteria. Waves of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will spread northward across our local
waters today, with activity continuing through Thursday night.
Hurricane Rafael in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will shift
westward away from Florida into the weekend. Small Craft Advisory
levels are possible again Saturday night for the offshore waters
as a cold front shifts southward into the region.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents for NE FL beaches today,
moderate risk tomorrow. Moderate risk for SE GA beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of inland SE GA for
today. Radar precipitation estimates of about 2 to 5 inches fell
within the watch area. An additional 1-2 inches will be possible
today. The Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of
inland southeast GA within a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall for today, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of
4) for the rest of SE GA and Suwannee Valley.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Daily record high min temps at our climate sites 11/7:

JAX 71/2019...CRG 71/2019...GNV 70/1975...AMG 69/2015

Daily record high max temps at our climate sites 11/7:

JAX 87/2003...CRG 86/2018...GNV 88/1943...AMG 86/1986

Daily record high min temps at our climate sites 11/8:

JAX 71/1946...CRG 71/2020...GNV 70/2015...AMG 68/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  69  82  66 /  60  20  10   0
SSI  80  70  80  69 /  40  20   0   0
JAX  84  70  83  68 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  84  71  82  71 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  85  68  84  66 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  87  69  85  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ132>135-149.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470-
     472-474.

&&

$$