178
FXUS62 KJAX 091859
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
259 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO
TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Slight Risk for excessive rainfall along with a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms remains in effect for areas north and south
of the FL/GA border through today as widespread heavy rainfall and
embedded thunderstorms build across the region, progressing
eastward, as low pressure south of the stalled frontal boundary to
the north treks through the southeastern US. Pattern of
convection will continue overnight and into Monday morning as low
pressure associated with a low level jet moves eastward ahead of
an approaching frontal boundary from out of the northwest. Threats
associated with strong storms will be heavy rainfall, wind gusts
of 40 to 60 mph, and small hail with the potential for isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out. High temperatures for southeast
Georgia and areas of northeast Florida experiencing heavier
convection will be range between the 50s and 60s due to rainfall,
with max temps reaching into the 70s and lower 80s for drier areas
in north central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop
down into the upper 40s and lower to mid 50s for southeast Georgia
and in the upper 50s and into the 60s for northeast Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The potential mid/upper level trough will be shifting eastward across
the area Monday with associated sfc low located near the GA coast
Monday morning. An associated cold front will march across the
rest of the area through the morning and aftn as the low treks
east-northeast. Scattered to numerous showers and potential a few
t-storms will move eastward with local heavy downpours. Bulk of
any precip will move east by late morning, but under the 500 mb
low pressure system scattered showers are expected over southeast
GA and portions of northeast FL in the aftn with a post-frontal
trough swinging eastward. Cold temps aloft of about -18 to -20C
and sufficient wrap-around moisture will result in some weak
instability that could lead to some isolated t-storms for parts
of southeast GA. This should end by the evening. Cool max temps
are shown over inland southeast GA around 60, and lower 70s toward
northeast FL before the cold advection sets in earnest Monday
night. Gustier winds expected over northeast FL due to better
mixing with gusts of about 25-35 mph expected.

For Monday night, considerable cloudiness but most of the precip
is east of the area in the evening. Low clouds likely remain but
gradually clear out by Tuesday morning with cooler air filtering
in on northwest winds. Gusty winds near 20-30 mph may remain for a
time given the pres gradient.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, any remaining clouds push to the southeast
as high pressure builds at the sfc from the west with much lighter
winds. Mainly drier air over the area as max temps are able to
reach to the lower to mid 70s. Lows Tuesday night cool to the
lower to mid 40s under clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Sfc high pressure and mid level ridge over the area Wed will
bring warm and dry conditions. The high is expected to move
offshore Wed night into Thu resulting shifting low level winds to
the south-southwest. A vigorous shortwave trough on Thu over the
srn MS Valley moves eastward, but moisture is limited and looks
like just some increased clouds with little surface reflection of
the shortwave. Mid level ridge builds back in Thu night as the
shortwave moves off the coast. Another robust mid/upper level
trough moves into the Plains on Friday. An upper level low
associated with this system moves northeast while an associated
sfc cold front moves eastward to the central Gulf coast by
Saturday. Locally, for Fri and Sat, our prevailing surface flow
is southerly with continued dry conditions. Max Temps on Wed and
Thu in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Then warming further to lower
and mid 80s Fri and Sat, but coastal areas will be cooler given
some onshore flow component. Some timing differences in guidance,
but the frontal system over the Gulf may be moving into the
forecast area Sat night and more certainly by Sun. Strong wind
fields, but some limited moisture and therefore instability
associated with this system is apparent in the guidance. We will
continue to monitor trends but there is t-storm potential Sat
night into Sunday, some of which could be strong.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Widespread showers and storms with IFR ceilings and visibility
levels will develop of and on through the forecast period, with
potential for strong to severe storms capable of destructive
winds, heavy rainfall, and potential for hail. Winds will shift to
become more out of the SW-W by 13-15z Monday, with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of about 20-30 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The cold front will continue pushing southward becoming
stationary over the northeast Florida waters by late this
afternoon. Northeasterly winds will overspread our local waters
from north to south today, with speeds just below Small Craft
Advisory levels expected across the Georgia waters. Meanwhile, low
pressure moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast will
slowly strengthen as it approaches the Florida panhandle and Big
Bend coasts tonight, with the stalled frontal boundary lifting
back northward across the Georgia waters late tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread over our region this morning, with
strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible across our local
waters after midnight tonight. Strengthening low pressure will
cross our area on Monday morning, with gusty south-southwesterly
winds during the morning, shifting to westerly during the
afternoon and then northwesterly towards sunset. Gale conditions
will be in place over offshore waters Monday night along with
Small Craft Advisory conditions for nearshore waters, with winds
and seas diminishing Tuesday afternoon and evening as low pressure
accelerates towards Bermuda and weak high pressure builds along
the northern Gulf coast. High pressure will then migrate across
the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, moving offshore by Wednesday
night, with prevailing southerly winds developing locally through
Thursday.

Rip Currents: Northeasterly winds and surf conditions at the
southeast GA beaches continues a high risk of rip currents today.
This northeasterly wind surge reached the northeast FL beaches
resulting in a higher end moderate risk. Rough surf conditions
will result in a lower end moderate risk at area beaches on Monday
as gusty offshore winds develop. Diminishing winds and surf
conditions should result in a low risk at area beaches, with a
longer period northeasterly swell arriving towards midweek, which
will increase the risk back to moderate.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A Flood Watch remains in effect tonight along the Interstate 10
corridor in northeast FL and for portions of southeast GA,
generally for locations from Waycross southward. Additional
rainfall amounts near 1-3 inches are expected in the Flood Watch
area through Monday morning. Localized amounts in excess of 4
inches will be possible for locations where heavier downpours
persist and train repeatedly over the same locations, creating a
potential threat for urban flooding. Highest rainfall amounts so
far have been upwards of 1-2 inches from Hamilton/Echols eastward
to Charlton and Camden counties. Water level rises are likely on
area rivers such as the Satilla, St. Marys, Black Creek, Alapaha,
Santa Fe, and Altamaha Rivers are likely during the upcoming week.
A river flood warning is already in effect for St Marys at
Macclenny. Additional river flood warning looking more likely for
Worthington Springs and Oleno State Park on the Santa Fe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Daily rainfall records for March 9th are in jeopardy at Alma, GA
(1.74 inches) and Craig Airport in eastern Duval County (1.98
inches). Daily rainfall records for March 10th are possible at
Jacksonville (1.69 inches) and Craig Airport (1.01 inches). A top
ten 24 hour rainfall total for the month of March is possible at
Jacksonville during this event (would have to be in excess of 3.3
inches). Based on latest forecasts, the records may be just out of
reach but depends on how much training bands occur through the
evening and tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  50  62  42 /  90 100  70  10
SSI  60  55  69  47 /  90 100  80  20
JAX  62  57  74  46 /  90  90  70  10
SGJ  67  60  75  49 /  60  70  80  10
GNV  73  63  71  46 /  60  80  70   0
OCF  78  64  70  46 /  30  70  70   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
     033-120-124-125-132-133-220-225-232-322-325-422-425-522.

GA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for GAZ149-162-163-165-166-
     250-264-350-364.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$