258
FXUS62 KJAX 281739
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1239 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Temperatures and
dewpoints were adjusted a few degrees to reflect current conditions.
other than that, forecast is on track with mostly clear to sunny
skies today with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s with
temperatures staying slightly cooler along the coast

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A dry cold front currently draped across inland SE GA will
continue shifting southeastward early this morning. A very dry
airmass advects into the region in the wake of this front as high
pressure builds across the northern Gulf. Dewpoints are
anticipated to mix down into the 30s area- wide. Otherwise, a
sunny and seasonable day is in store with highs in the low to mid
70s. Clear skies and lighter winds will lead to good radiational
cooling tonight with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

West to west/southwesterly flow dominates on Saturday as another dry
cold front approaches from the north, returning temperatures to
above normal once again ahead of the front. Partly to mostly sunny
skies should allow temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to be
common, and would not be surprised if guidance started to trend
upward with these temps over the next 12 to 24 hours given this
regime. The dry front moves through overnight Saturday Night, with
high pressure building in more from the due north which should
allow a wind shift more towards the north to northeast pretty
quickly as compared to a more potent northwesterly flow as seen
more commonly post FROPA during the winter months. Temperatures
will drop into the 40s inland to the low 50s by the coast and St.
Johns River where the flow will be slightly more onshore.

High pressure will be located to the north/northeast Sunday and
Sunday Night, which will feature mainly a north to northeasterly
flow (especially near the coast), high temperatures generally
below average, and dew points mostly in the 20s and 30s. Highs in
the 60s to low 70s will be common, and mostly sunny skies with the
early March sun angle will certainly make it feel warmer than a
similar type of air mass moving into the region during the winter
months. The dry and subsident airmass will allow temps to drop in
the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior Sunday Night, with 40s
to near 50 by the coast and St. Johns. Patchy frost will be
possible early Monday Morning, especially over far interior
southeast GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday, which
will set the stage for veering flow towards the east to southeast
Monday and Tuesday, and eventually southwest by Wednesday. A
couple of dry days will start the week before a cold front
approaches the area Wednesday and moves across the region through
Wednesday Night. Timing is certainly a major factor, with it being
far too early to nail down at this time. However, this front
certainly has the potential to be a potent one, as favorable upper
dynamics could dip southward all the way towards the Gulf Coast.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already placed southeast GA
in a 15% probability of severe thunderstorms, which could shift
into northeast FL over the next few days. A cooler and drier
airmass once again looks to build into the region behind the front
to end the long term period. Regarding temperatures, it will be a
roller coaster ride of sorts during the long term: Near normal
temps are likely Monday which quickly trend above normal
Tuesday/Wednesday before falling to near or below normal Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions area wide and through the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the west to northwest around 5-7 kt at inland
sites with sites along the coast getting the easterly sea breeze.
SGJ is staying pretty breezy around 10-12kt but will become light
and variable after sunset. Winds are expected to pick up towards
the end of the TAF period ahead of another frontal passage that
will make its way through the area.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A dry cold front will cross the coastal waters this morning
briefly increasing northwesterly winds to small craft criteria for
the offshore waters. High pressure across the Gulf coast states
will extend across the area tonight, then another dry front will
move across the waters Saturday night. High pressure builds north
to northeast of the region early next week. Small craft conditions
and rain return Tuesday night into Wednesday with a frontal
passage.

Rip Currents: Today, low end Moderate risk of rip currents for NE
FL beaches with NNE winds this morning. Low risk prevails on Saturday.

&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A dry cold front will move across the region early this morning,
ushering in a dry and cool airmass. Min RH values will drop to
critical levels for almost the entirety of the area post cold
front. Luckily, both surface and transport winds are not expected
to be strong enough to result in any elevated fire danger
headlines. Though rather potent mixing heights in the 4 thousand +
foot range away from the coast will tap into some modest winds
aloft, especially over interior southeast GA where high
dispersions are expected in some areas. Flow will increase on
Saturday, which combined with some min RH values in the mid to
upper 20s will once again see a day borderline for elevated fire
danger. Conditions look to remain dry into early next week, with
the next chances for rain not expected until around the Wednesday
time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

A dry cold front will move across the region early this morning,
ushering in a dry and cool airmass. Min RH values will drop to
critical levels for almost the entirety of the area post cold
front. Luckily, both surface and transport winds are not expected
to be strong enough to result in any elevated fire danger
headlines. Though rather potent mixing heights in the 4 thousand +
foot range away from the coast will tap into some modest winds
aloft, especially over interior southeast GA where high
dispersions are expected in some areas. Flow will increase on
Saturday, which combined with some min RH values in the mid to
upper 20s will once again see a day borderline for elevated fire
danger. Conditions look to remain dry into early next week, with
the next chances for rain not expected until around the Wednesday
time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  75  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  50  74  48  59 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  46  78  48  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  47  77  52  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  44  77  48  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$