Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
776 FXUS62 KJAX 201437 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1037 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered to Numerous Mainly Afternoon & Evening TStorms through Wed. Isolated Strong Storms Possible for Locations West of I-95 this Afternoon through. Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail Possible. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches through Midweek - Strengthening Onshore Winds Will Increase Marine Hazards from Late Wednesday through Next Weekend. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week && .UPDATE... Anticipating a more active convective day today as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon. Due to morning cloud cover from convective debris over the coastal waters, delayed surface heating along the I-10 corridor may reduced initial coverage and destabilization for an hour or two. Anticipate inland shower and isolated storms to develop ahead of the sea breeze along the differential heating boundaries that have developed on the edges of the morning cloud cover. The primary focus for strong afternoon convection will be generally along and west of US 301 with frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. Expect stronger storms to develop amid colliding outflow boundaries, which may begin as early as 2-3 PM. Once the sunshine breaks through the clouds, temperatures will heat up quickly into the upper 80s near the coast and low 90s inland this afternoon. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... More active convective day this afternoon. Though there is potential for isolated coastal showers through 16z, most shower and thunderstorm development will focus along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze. Highest confidence for downpours and thunderstorm influences will be at inland airfields 40-70% this afternoon and early evening (18-23z). Downpours will restrict visibility at times at KJAX/KVQQ/KGNV with visibility briefly falling to IFR or lower with +TSRA. Light northwest to northerly surface winds will shift to northeasterly at 5-10 knots by 16Z and then easterly around 10 knots by 20Z. Surface winds will then shift to southeasterly with diminishing speeds after 01Z this evening. As winds trend calm, there will be potential for patchy low stratus and light fog at inland airfields after 08z. && .MARINE... Surface troughing and a disturbance aloft located just west of Tampa Bay will remain nearly stationary through tonight before lifting slowly north-northeastward across our local waters by Monday night and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight, with coverage then increasing from Monday through at least Thursday. East-northeasterly winds will prevail through Tuesday, with speeds and seas remaining below Caution levels outside of thunderstorm activity. Strong high pressure building over southeastern Canada and New England on Tuesday will begin to wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday afternoon and evening, creating a surge of northeasterly winds that will likely create Small Craft Advisory conditions across our local waters by Thursday and Friday. Rip Currents: Persistent east-northeasterly winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through midweek at all area beaches. A surge of strengthening northeasterly winds and building breaker heights will arrive on Wednesday evening, and a high risk is likely at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday, possibly continuing into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day through Thursday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity will generally progress from east to west, with showers and thunderstorms concentrating along the Interstate 10 corridor, the Suwannee Valley, and the Okefenokee Swamp this afternoon through early this evening. Otherwise, east-northeasterly surface and transport winds will prevail through Tuesday, followed by gradually strengthening northeasterly surface and transport winds on Wednesday, with stronger speeds then forecast on Thursday and Friday. Lighter speeds today will yield marginally low daytime dispersion values for coastal southeast Georgia and portions of coastal northeast Florida, with generally poor values forecast elsewhere, except fair values for north central Florida. Poor to fair daytime dispersion values will continue through midweek, except for good values across inland southeast Georgia on Wednesday. Fog Potential...Patchy fog formation is possible across inland portions of southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of north central Florida during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 0 SSI 87 75 88 74 / 30 30 40 20 JAX 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 50 10 SGJ 87 75 88 74 / 30 10 40 20 GNV 89 71 91 71 / 60 30 70 10 OCF 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$