588
FXUS62 KJAX 020555
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
155 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and thunderstorms will develop through the forecast area
today as a dry frontal boundary presses into the forecast area
from out of the northwest, with a moist air mass ahead of the
front possessing PWAT values ranging between 2 and 2.4 inches
resulting in storms capable of producing heavy rainfall with a
potential for localized flooding. Flow ahead of the frontal
boundary will be out of the southwest and west leading to stronger
convection forming in the vicinity of the sea breeze merger near
the I-95 corridor. Convection will become dispersed during the
overnight hours with the frontal boundary crossing into southeast
Georgia. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the
lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the
coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Independence Day)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

In the upper levels an anticyclonic wave break will pinch the
positive-tilt trough into a closed low somewhere over Florida and
adjacent Gulf/Atlc waters by Friday. Meanwhile at the surface, the
remnants of a weak frontal boundary continues to decay through
the end of the week as it gradually slides into central Florida.
Drier air in its wake will enter into SE GA by Independence day
and significantly limit rain chances. The narrative is different
across NE FL and north-central FL zones where rich deep moisture,
enhance convergence along the boundary, and the cutoff upper low
will fuel numerous afternoon Thunderstorms each afternoon.

A boundary-parallel steering flow will enhance the potential for
training convection both Thursday and Friday. It`s over those
repeated areas of rainfall where flood risk will be elevated with
exceptionally high rain rates possible (5"+ per hr). The risk will
be higher on Friday given the boundary will come to a stall near
our southern zones. Though convection may linger a bit after
sunset, it should fade away each night.

Given the moisture and cloudy skies, temperatures will be cooler
across NE FL each day with highs a few degrees below normal, in
the upper 80s. Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the rise in SE
GA where drier air and sunnier skies prevail especially by
Independence Day with highs in the low/mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A lot more uncertainty enters the forecast this weekend with the
focus becoming the evolution and potential organization of a low
pressure, which may become tropical in nature. There may be a
series of surface lows that develop along the remnant surface
trough which is why such a challenge exists in determining where
that dominant surface low will be. However, there has been more
consistency in developing the low off our coast and lifting it
northward after cyclogenesis occurs. A position near the coast
could send several rounds off "wrap-around" moisture into the
First Coast. After a few days of heavy rainfall before this
unfolds, there could be some soggy areas that may become more at
risk of flooding (just a consideration). Nonetheless, the NHC has
maintained a 40% chance of potential cyclone development in our
region. Next week, the increase in moisture should favor near-
climo rain chances and hotter-than- typical temperatures, in the
mid 90s, as an upper ridge builds over Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions overnight and into the morning with showers and
storms developing in the afternoon by around 18z to 22z.
Southwesterly winds will build in the afternoon with sustained
winds reaching 10 mph and higher with gusts reaching up to 15-20
mph. Conditions will become dispersed near the end of the forecast
period by around 02-04z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Atlantic high pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula
through midweek as a weak surface trough settles over the
southeastern states. This weather pattern will create prevailing
south to southwesterly winds, with evening wind surges bringing
speeds up to Caution levels over the outer waters. A front will
stall near the local waters late this week into the holiday
weekend, with waves of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor the
latest National Hurricane Center outlook for potential tropical
low pressure development along this front late this week and into
the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Low Risk for area beaches today and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A weak front will approach from the northwest today and push
through the region Thursday and stall across central FL on
Independence Day. Juicy, tropical moisture ahead of the front will
fuel thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday. By Friday storms
will be concentrated across north-central FL zones (Ocala NF).
Outside of storms, winds will generally be westerly to
southwesterly today with afternoon gusts 15-20 mph favored across
NE FL. Stronger transport winds will elevate dispersions this
afternoon. Dispersion will be more limited Thursday due to cloud
cover resulting in shallow mixing.


ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS: Patchy fog may develop each morning but
significant fog is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  50  20
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  60  50  70  30
JAX  91  73  91  73 /  80  40  80  30
SGJ  91  74  88  73 /  70  50  80  40
GNV  89  72  88  70 /  80  50  80  30
OCF  88  74  86  73 /  80  50  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$