090
FXUS62 KJAX 080214
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
914 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast mainly on track. Winds were tweaked for wind direction
and sky conditions were adjusted to fit current conditions. A
dense fog advisory may be needed overnight as models show
visibilities of 1/4 mile having a 30-40% beginning to make its way
into inland areas of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida
late this evening and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge axis will remain south of the region across
the FL Peninsula and will continue a West to Southwest steering
flow across the local NE FL/SE GA area. Slow clearing of skies
will continue this afternoon with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies this evening and mild temps. Next round of dense fog to
develop along the NE Gulf Coast this evening and will track into
the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL around midnight, then track to
the East-Northeast across the rest of NE FL and into SE GA through
the overnight hours with widespread dense fog likely across all
areas by sunrise Saturday morning and expect Dense Fog Advisories
to be posted at some time this evening for most areas. Low temps
will remain mild, only falling into the mid/upper 50s for most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Dry pattern with west to southwesterly flow and above normal temps
is expected to continue throughout the weekend as we remain under
the influence of weak high pressure off to our east. A weakening
front tries to drop southward towards our area Sunday and Sunday
Night, though loses momentum in the zonal flow that continues
aloft and stalls just north of the region Sunday Night. The main
headline will continue to be potential for areas to widespread fog
for both Saturday and Sunday Nights as enough low level moisture
will be in place with a continuously weak surface flow. Chances
for patchy to areas of dense fog will continue, especially towards
HWY 301 and I-75. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will be
common for the interior on Saturday, with a bit of a sea breeze
along the immediate coast resulting in highs only in the low to
mid 70s. After another mild morning Sunday, 80s are expected to
become more widespread and almost all the way to the coast as a
west/southwest flow will be slightly stronger.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Aforementioned stalled front north of the region on Monday will
lift northward on Monday Night and into Tuesday as another front
moves towards the area from the northwest, which will return
chances for rain to areas generally north and west of Waycross
during this time frame. The flow aloft starts to transition from
almost purely zonal to more southwest to northeast oriented around
Tuesday/Wednesday, which will allow this front to start making
gradual progress southeastward through mid week, and slowly
increasing chances for rain further southeastward each day. Though
still plenty of uncertainty on details, most guidance is in
agreement that the front will finally get enough of a push to move
across northeast FL and likely clear the whole CWA around the
Thursday time frame, which would result in more widespread rain
chances area wide and possibly thunderstorms as well. Daily fog
and low stratus chances are likely to continue into the long range
along and south of the front as mild low temps and plenty of low
level moisture remain.

Temperature outlook for most of the long term remains above
average, though likely to fall closer to normal by Thursday
pending FROPA timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Mainly VFR conditions through this evening before another
round of fog develops along the NE Gulf coast tonight and tracks
NE and impacts all of the TAF sites with LIFR conditions by 06Z at
GNV and the rest of the TAF sites in the 08-10Z time frame and
lasting through 14-15Z time frame. VFR conditions are expected
after 17z at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

No headlines expected as high pressure will extend across the
Florida peninsula through the weekend. The high will shift across
south Florida early next week as frontal systems move into the
southeast region with increasing rain chances and increasing winds
from the south and southwest in the Wed/Thu time frame with SCEC
level winds not out of the question. Dense sea fog will impact
the waters at times through the weekend and will be the main
hazard to mariners.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents in the light wind flow
regime with surf/breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites through
Tuesday:

               Feb 7    Feb 8    Feb 9   Feb 10   Feb 11
               -------------------------------------------
Jacksonville   82/2019  85/2019  88/1937  84/1994  85/2020
Gainesville    86/1957  86/2019  86/1939  86/1957  87/1932
Alma, GA       82/2019  84/1957  83/1957  82/1994  80/2021
Craig Airport  81/2018  82/1999  83/1982  81/2018  84/2020

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  56  72  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  55  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  56  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  82  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$