387
FXUS62 KJAX 041219
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 819 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Dense sea fog will impact the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals
through around 15Z, where LIFR ceilings are likely to continue
through around 14Z before gradually lifting to IFR before 16Z.
Gradually strengthening southerly south to southeasterly surface
winds should scour out any lingering low ceilings by 17Z, with VFR
conditions expected throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR visibilities at CRG will quickly dissipate early this morning,
with a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible through around VFR
conditions expected to prevail by 15Z. MVFR visibilities at VQQ
will dissipate by 13Z, followed by a brief period of MVFR ceilings
at JAX and VQQ later this morning that will lift to VFR by 16Z.
IFR to LIFR conditions will develop overnight after 07Z at VQQ,
with MVFR to IFR visibilities possible elsewhere towards 10Z
Saturday. South to southeasterly surface winds will increase to
5-10 knots at the regional terminals by 14Z, followed by surface
winds shifting to east-southeasterly as the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary pushes inland this afternoon. Sustained surface winds
will increase to around 15 knots at gusty at the coastal terminals
and 10-15 knots by the mid to late afternoon hours today at the
inland terminals. Speeds will gradually diminish this evening and
overnight as surface winds shift to southerly.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A deep layer high pressure system located off the Atlantic east coast
will continue to provide unseasonably warm and humid conditions across
the forecast area today. Deep layer flow is south about 10-20 kt through
1000-500 mb with PWATs starting out near 1.25 inches, but we should
see slightly drier air moving in from the south through tonight.

After any stratus and fog dissipate this morning, sfc winds will once
again pick up from the south-southeast at 10-15 mph inland, and about
up to 15-20 mph for the coastal counties. Wind gusts around 25-30
mph are possible for the afternoon, mainly for coastal counties.
Little chance for a shower today or tonight given the relatively
dry air, weak low level convergence, and subsidence inversion
aloft located about 6-7 kft. However, a small area of low chances
for showers was inserted into interior southeast GA late aftn
given some support from the HRRR and HREF. Thunder chances even
lower given the subsidence inversion.

Max temps once again close to record territory with highs in the
lower 90s inland and lower to mid 80s coast. Lows tonight will be above
normal as well with mainly 60s area-wide, and can`t rule out some
patchy fog inland but not expecting anything dense at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

High pressure will keep clear skies and southerly winds this
weekend ahead of an advancing cold front, expected to bring
showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday night. Above normal
temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday with highs reaching
the mid 80s to lower 90s. On Saturday, southeast winds will bring
a cooling sea breeze for the Atlantic coastal areas, but with a
wind shift to the southwest on Sunday, the coast will reach the
mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures will be mild, in the mid to
upper 60s.

Sunday night, precipitation is forecast to reach inland southeast
Georgia around sunset, slowly pushing southeastward through the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Unsettled weather will continue all day Monday as the cold front makes
its way through southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Thunderstorms,
potentially some strong will be present for most of the day, with
SE GA seeing more activity in the morning and afternoon, and NE
FL more so in the evening into the overnight hours.

Behind this frontal passage, temperatures will rebound quickly
back to near-average, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s for the
rest of the week. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s to
near 60 each night, with a subtle warming trend each night of the
week after Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, all of NE FL and SE GA
should be dry, with only some showers over the local waters
possible through the week as high pressure settles in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A moderate southeast wind of about 15 kt and seas about 3-5 ft
will make for rather uncomfortable conditions for small boaters
today and into tonight. A slight increase in the wind speeds and
more southerly direction is poised for Saturday (mainly beginning
during the afternoon). Thus, probably see wind increase again to
SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines, and which may stay
in place for Sunday. Flow then becomes more south to southwest
ahead of the next cold front Sunday night into Monday and wind
speeds are expected to at or exceed 20 knots and SCA flags are
expected to be raised by late Sunday and will continue into Monday
with the strong cold frontal passage. Winds shift to the west and
then northwest Monday night with the frontal passage. A northerly
flow close to SCA headlines (probably more so SCEC headlines)
anticipated for Tuesday. By Tue night and into Wed, flow becomes
northeasterly and still likely requiring headlines.

Rip Currents: A mix of northeast swell and a dominate southeast
wind wave (periods 6-7 seconds) continues to produce moderate to
high risk today. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range
expected. Similar surf and risk currently seen for Saturday but
may be slightly lower at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Daily Records for Climate Sites

Record High Temperatures:

Today, April 4th:
KJAX: 90/2011
KCRG: 88/2012
KAMG: 90/1963
KGNV: 91/1974

Saturday, April 5th:
KJAX: 91/2017
KCRG: 91/2017
KAMG: 90/2023
KGNV: 90/2023

Sunday, April 6th:
KJAX: 90/1947
KCRG: 87/2022
KAMG: 90/1967
KGNV: 90/2023

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Today, April 4th:
KJAX: 71/1974
KGNV: 69/1974

Saturday, April 5th:
KJAX: 70/1873
KGNV: 69/1957

Sunday, April 6th:
KJAX: 70/2023
KGNV: 73/2022

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  64  86  65 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  79  67  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  88  64  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  83  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  91  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  91  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$