759
FXUS62 KJAX 010121
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
921 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Daytime convection is still holding on over inland areas, but
should begin to wean rather quickly in the next hour or two. Some
outflow from convection that occurred today north of inland
southeast GA counties may spawn a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as it enters this area around the 10 PM to midnight
time frame. However, not expecting this activity to hold together
very long with the lack of low level instability. Otherwise, some
lingering debris clouds will mostly dissipate during the overnight
hours with seasonably mild low temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers are slowly developing from the west along the I-10
corridor and over SE GA. With a moist atmosphere in place,
current PWAT values hovering around 2", scattered showers and
storms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon into
early evening, mainly for locations across SE GA and eastward
towards US-301 in NE FL. Potential hazards for any storms that do
develop include downburst winds of 40-50mph, frequent lightning,
as well as heavy downpours that may result in localized flooding,
particularly at urban and normally flood prone locations.

The Heat Advisory will remain in place through late afternoon for
portions of SE GA, as Heat Index values currently are reading from
103F to 108F and will look to continue to rise before showers and
storms begin to develop during the mid afternoon. By the evening,
temperatures will begin to lower into the low to mid 70s across
the inland areas, with coastal areas residing from the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A cold front over central GA gradually sags southward on Monday
before stalling and diffusing over SE GA on Tuesday. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms develop each day along the sea breezes
and the frontal boundary. This boundary and mesoscale collisions
will provide the focus for stronger convection with the potential
for isolated strong/severe storms being possible Monday
afternoon/evening mainly over SE GA. Deep tropical moisture (PWATs
2.2 - 2.7 in.) ahead of the front will result in storms capable
of producing heavy rainfall with a potential for flooding
especially in SE GA. Localized areas could see rain amounts in the
2-4 in. range especially where storms train. High temperatures
for the beginning of the week will be in the 90s for most inland
areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for areas behind
the frontal boundary. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the
coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure aloft and drier air shift over the region in the
wake of the weakening front lowering storm coverage and allowing a
warming trend through the weekend. Lingering tropical moisture on
Wednesday will result in numerous showers and storms developing
along the sea breezes. Convection becomes more scattered Thursday
into the weekend with drier north-northeasterly flow. The greatest
chances for storms will be over north-central FL where PWATs
remain 2+ inches. Highs in the low-mid 90s mid-week quickly rise
into the mid-upper 90s by Friday. Potential for heat advisory
conditions will continue and become more likely by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Diurnal convection is ongoing away from the coast, mainly
affecting VQQ and GNV as of 00Z. It is possible for some SHRA to
briefly affect JAX through about 01-02Z, though any activity is
expected to quickly start winding down soon. MVFR cannot be ruled
out briefly if any RA does occur. Otherwise, VFR is expected
overnight for all terminals with the exception of VQQ, which is
expected to reach MVFR at times towards the morning hours.

Typical summer daytime convection is expected once again Monday
afternoon and evening, with more specific timing TBD. Winds of 10+
knots will be expected prior to diurnal convection at most sites
by Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Atlantic high pressure will sink southward tonight as a frontal
boundary approaches our local waters from the north. Offshore
winds will prevail ahead of this approaching frontal boundary,
except near shore, where the Atlantic sea breeze will push inland
this afternoon. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible into the evening hours today, mainly over the near
shore waters. The frontal boundary will stall over the Georgia
waters on Tuesday, with increasing chances for mainly afternoon
and nighttime showers and thunderstorms across our local waters.
Prevailing winds will shift to east and southeasterly beginning on
Tuesday as high pressure builds down the southeastern seaboard.
High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southward towards our
local waters later this week.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate rip current risk at area beaches
through Monday, as onshore flow and a dominant easterly swell of
continues.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Deep tropical moisture over the region will lead to heavy
downpours from convection especially along and ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary from the north. WPC has placed
portions of SE GA in a slight risk of excessive rainfall for
Monday. Localized areas could see rain amounts in the 2-4 in.
range especially where storms train. Depending on rainfall amounts
today, a Flood Watch may be needed for portions of SE GA for
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  93  74  88 /  50  80  60  60
SSI  78  90  78  88 /  30  70  70  70
JAX  75  94  75  92 /  50  50  50  70
SGJ  76  93  77  92 /  30  40  40  60
GNV  73  92  74  92 /  70  50  30  70
OCF  74  92  75  93 /  60  50  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$