590
FXUS62 KJAX 050158
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another chilly evening is in store for locations away from the
coast. High pressure still across NE FL and mainly clear skies
will allow low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 30s
west of I-95 over SE GA and west of US 17 in NE FL with upper
30s into north central FL. Lows along the St Johns river should
fall into the low 40s with mid 40s at the coast. Some mid and
high level clouds will arrive towards sunrise. Have only patchy
frost for tonight due to the dry conditions from today.

Thursday, a cold front will arrive from the northwest with
moisture increasing aloft as the high sinks into south FL. Some
light to moderate showers will move into western counties by
late morning and stay mainly west of highway 301 through the
afternoon before nearing the coast and shifting south of I-10
Thursday evening. Winds will increase form the southwest ahead
of the front to 10-15 mph with increasing clouds limiting highs
to near normal over NE FL in the upper 60s to lower 70s and a
little below normal in the low to mid 60s across SE GA. Any
rainfall amounts will be generally under a tenth of an inch.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

With high pressure building over the forecast areas winds will go
calm to light and variable overnight with clear skies. This will
allow for additional radiational cooling, especially over large
open areas near the Okefenokee NWR and Suwannee Valley. I did
undercut the Model Guidance in the areas from Jesup to Trenton and
west of Tail Ridge by about 2-4F but with a bit drier conditions
chose to go with Patchy Frost rather than Areas of frost for the
interior areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Moisture fills in from the Gulf ahead of the cold front that will
be making its way through the area in the afternoon and into the
late evening hours. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a
chance of light to moderate rain ahead of the front, mainly over
southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida. Daytime highs will
be in the 60s over Southeast Georgia to low 70s over northeast
Florida. Thursday night, low temperatures will be in the low to
mid 30s over southeast Georgia and mid 30s to low 50s over
northeast Florida. Friday, high pressure fills in behind the cold
front bringing drier cooler air with it. Daytime highs will be in
the low to mid 50s over Southeast Georgia and in the mid 50s to
mid 60s over Northeast Florida. Friday night lows will will be
drop into the upper 20s to low 30s over inland Southeast Georgia
and in the 30s over Northeast Florida. Areas along and near the
coast will stay slightly warmer with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Central high pressure will slowly make its way east out into the
Atlantic over the weekend while moisture will continue to fill in
into the beginning of next week. This increase in moisture
improves the chances for precipitation at the beginning of next
week with the higher chances starting over Southeast Georgia
spreading into Northeast Florida by mid week. Daytime highs will
slowly increase from the 50s and 60s to the 70s at the beginning
of next week. Overnight lows will gradually increase as well,
getting out of the 30s and 40s and into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period for most TAFs sites
except for SSI which may see MVFR ceilings late Thursday. Surface
high pressure currently over northeast florida will sink southward
overnight into central Florida with calm winds inland to variable
at the coastal sites around 5 knots, increasing at SSI to 5-10
knots after 06Z. A cold front will approach from the west on
Thursday with increasing mid and high level clouds as the high
sinks into south Florida and winds increasing to around 8-10 knots
away from the coast and 10-12 knots at SGJ and SSI. Have left out
VCSH with this forecast as rain chances over the terminals is too
low to include at this time, but may increase just after 00Z
Friday. Broken ceilings around 3.0 kft are expected at SSI after
18Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

North-northwesterly winds will become more mild and variable over the
course of the day, shifting to become more southwesterly overnight
and into Thursday as a strong cold front presses down from out of
the north. Frontal passage will occur Thursday night, followed by
winds shifting to become more northerly through the end of the
week. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish this weekend as
another high pressure center builds directly over our local
waters.

Rip Currents: Florida Moderate
              Georgia Low

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

High pressure has centered itself over the area and brining cool
dry air and light winds with it. These light winds have created
poor dispersions over much of the area today and poor to fair
dispersions for Thursday and Friday. MinRH values are near or at
critical values today over southeast Georgia and parts of inland
northeast Florida. MinRH values will increase Thursday ahead of
another cold front before dropping back down to critical/near
critical values behind the front for Friday and Saturday. Sunday,
the weather pattern will shift leading to warming and moistening
conditions next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  62  32  50 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  44  66  39  54 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  39  70  40  56 /   0  10  20   0
SGJ  43  72  48  61 /   0  10  20   0
GNV  38  71  43  58 /   0  10  20   0
OCF  38  72  48  62 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$