949
FXUS62 KJAX 191311
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
911 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track as high pressure ridge axis lies just
north of the area with a SE flow in place, which will become
breezy at 15G25 mph for the Atlantic Coastal Counties and hold Max
temps in the lower 80s there, while Max temps will reach well into
the 80s over inland areas under mostly sunny skies, with a few
near 90F readings possible along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Persistent pattern in place with an upper ridge extended across
the region and an axis of high pressure situated laying directly
across the area. This will continue a moist southeasterly
(onshore) flow today and increase near-ground moisture. This may
lead to shallow, patchy fog this morning but an extensive or
dense fog is unlikely. Skies will be mostly clear, aside from a
scattered afternoon cumulus, offering abundant sunshine and
warming temperatures. Highs this afternoon will push into the
mid/upper 80s inland and hover the low/mid 80s near the Atlantic
coast with the cooling onshore flow.

Tonight, no considerable pattern changes except increasing
moisture aloft as cirrus begins to slide overhead and across the
top of the upper ridge. It appears that the thicker shield of
cirrus will remain west through tonight and fill in from west to
east after daybreak Sunday. Due to the multiple days of onshore
flow, there will be increasing chances for fog and low stratus
particularly along the I-95, some of which could be dense. Lows
will cool close to near 60 degrees inland while staying more mild
at the coast, with readings in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)

Sunday, deep ridging will be directly over the region as a potent,
compact shortwave rides to the north of the ridge aloft eastward
from southeast Ontario into Newfoundland by afternoon while
another, negatively tilted shortwave trough emerges from the
southern Rockies and lifts into the central plains. The deep
ridging will keep Atlantic high pressure in control as a ridge
axis extends WSW from Bermuda into NE FL and SE GA. The clockwise
flow around the high will allow the Atlantic seabreeze to move
well inland, but dry conditions under the strong subsidence aloft
will preclude any showers, with only high cirrus clouds spilling
over the ridge. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
inland, west of US-17 with upper 70s to around 80 at the beaches.

Monday, the deep ridge will slowly shift southward into the northern
Bahamas to the southeast as the negatively tilted shortwave travels
NE across the upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes.
Atlantic high pressure axis will remain over the area as the
center of the high nudges closer to the area from Bermuda. Onshore
southeasterly winds will rise to 10-15 mph along the coast into
the St Johns river while staying more southerly 5-10 mph inland.

The moist low level airmass under high level clouds will allow for
mild, above normal overnight lows Sunday and Monday night into the
low 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s along the coast. &&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

Tuesday, mid level ridging sinks over the central Bahamas as a
result of the shortwave traveling over the ridge across the upper
Midwest, through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. A
frontal boundary will cross the the Appalachian mountains and
stall north of the area while the Atlantic high pressure weakens.

Wednesday into Friday, the mid to to upper level pattern will
become more flattened over the region with weak embedded
shortwaves traveling from the WSW across the deep south. This will
also deprive the frontal boundary of its ability to press further
south and should remain north of the area through the start of
next weekend. These impulses will help spur some isolated T`storm
development over SE GA areas as Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes merge
inland near highway 301 in a weak southerly low level flow regime
with just enough moisture as PWAT values of 1.25-1.50 inches pool
north of the FL/GA state line, but remain around 1.00 over NE FL,
likely preventing any convection or shower development there.

High temperatures will warm through the week inland from the upper
80s to the lower 90s by midweek with some mid 90s potentially,
helping reach near daily record high values (see climate) into
Friday while the coast warms into the low 80s at the beachfront
to the mid to upper 80s along I-95 and low 90s just west of US-17.
Lows will rise slowly from the low 60s inland into the mid 60s
and to the upper 60s at the coast and along the St Johns river.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

Tuesday, mid level ridging sinks over the central Bahamas as a
result of the shortwave traveling over the ridge across the upper
Midwest, through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. A
frontal boundary will cross the the Appalachian mountains and
stall north of the area while the Atlantic high pressure weakens.

Wednesday into Friday, the mid to to upper level pattern will
become more flattened over the region with weak embedded
shortwaves traveling from the WSW across the deep south. This will
also deprive the frontal boundary of its ability to press further
south and should remain north of the area through the start of
next weekend. These impulses will help spur some isolated T`storm
development over SE GA areas as Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes merge
inland near highway 301 in a weak southerly low level flow regime
with just enough moisture as PWAT values of 1.25-1.50 inches pool
north of the FL/GA state line, but remain around 1.00 over NE FL,
likely preventing any convection or shower development there.

High temperatures will warm through the week inland from the upper
80s to the lower 90s by midweek with some mid 90s potentially,
helping reach near daily record high values (see climate) into
Friday while the coast warms into the low 80s at the beachfront
to the mid to upper 80s along I-95 and low 90s just west of US-17.
Lows will rise slowly from the low 60s inland into the mid 60s
and to the upper 60s at the coast and along the St Johns river.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Patchy fog will impact terminals across inland SE GA and KVQQ
resulting in periodic flight restrictions through 13z. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions continue through this evening. Southeasterly winds
will increase again mid morning around 10 knots with gusts up to
20 knots near the coast (KSSI/KSGJ/KCRG). Moisture increases will
increase potential for areas of low stratus and patchy fog late
tonight and during the predawn hours Sunday. Given uncertainty and
generally low probability at this time, elected to leave out any
ceiling restrictions with this package.

&&

.MARINE...

A stagnant ridge of high pressure will remain stretched across
the region this weekend, continuing southeasterly flow. Small
craft exercise caution level winds will develop offshore during
the afternoons behind the sea breeze. Next week, a front will
stall to the north and local winds will be driven by the sea
breeze each afternoon. Headlines are not expected through the next
week.

Rip Currents: Given the increased crowds this holiday weekend
coupled with the surf uptick with the enhanced sea breeze, have
issued a High Risk for the NE FL beaches. This may be needed on
Sunday as well but held at a Moderate Risk. For SE GA beaches,
a Moderate Risk continues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

High pressure will extend west southwest from Bermuda across our
area today into Sunday with southeasterly winds 10-15 mph near
the coast and winds decreasing to 5-10 mph inland and mostly
sunny skies. Min RH values over inland locations west of highway
301 will lower to the 30-35 percent range while higher along the
coast. With high mixing heights west of US-17 and elevated
transport winds, patchy dispersions are expected today and Sunday
across inland Northeast Florida.

&&

.CLIMATE...

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

TUES WED THURFRI

JAX 93 (1995) 92 (1970) 93 (1999) 92 (1958)

GNV94 (1968)92 (1970)94 (1999)93 (1896)

AMG92 (1970)94 (1968)93 (1999)91 (1958)

CRG89 (2002)89 (2020)92 (1999)91 (2006)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  78  66  78  68 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  84  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  64  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  89  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  90  58  91  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$