419
FXUS62 KJAX 191055
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
555 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A cold front approaching the area from the northwest has bought
rainy conditions to the area overnight and into this morning.
Moderate to light rain with Waves of heavier rain at times with a
few strong thunderstorms possible. Precipitation will begin to
clear the area as cold dry air fills in behind the front, starting
in southeast Georgia in the late morning/early afternoon and
northeast Florida by the mid afternoon. High temperatures will
likely be felt in the morning ahead of the frontal passage with
temperatures generally in the 60s with some areas south of
Gainesville seeing temperatures in the low 70s. Temperatures will
begin to cool rapidly behind the passing cold front dropping into
the mid to upper 40s over SE GA by the early evening hours and in
the 50s over NE FL. Overnight, temperatures continue to decrease
bottoming out in the mid 20s over SE GA and upper 20s to mid 30s
over NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 19
2025

Monday & Monday Night...A low chance of patchy black ice inland
secondary roads early Monday morning mainly across the Suwannee
River Valley where heavier rainfall occurred today as morning
temperatures fall below freezing. With the surface high WNW of
the region, elevated winds combined with the cold will create wind
chills in the teens Monday morning across SE GA and parts of the
Suwannee River Valley to the low 20s across most of NE FL and a
Cold Weather Advisory will be issued later today to message this
wind chill risk. Despite mostly sunny skies, temperatures
struggle to break 40 degrees by early afternoon across SE GA and
barely reach 50 for highs across north-central FL. Winds weaken
through the day, but wind chills will be in the 30s for much of SE
GA through the day. Clouds increase late Monday into Monday night
as as onshore flow develops and a coastal trough forms as the surface
high builds NNE of the region. A cold NNE flow will bring another
freeze to SE GA and portions of inland NE FL, with the slight NNE
wind direction increasing cloud cover across portions of coastal
NE FL and the St. Johns River basin where low temperatures will
generally range in the mid to upper 30s. A freeze watch has been
issued for SE GA and portions of inland NE FL Monday night. Monday
night into early Tuesday morning, isentropic lift increases over
the area between the low level coastal trough axis offshore and a
deepening long wave trough across the central CONUS with a cold
rain showers expected from the SE GA coast toward Gainesville.
Recent model trends have back- off on the chance of any frozen
precipitation potential through day break Tuesday morning.

Tuesday & Wednesday...Cold temperatures dominate with winter
precipitation chances increasing across SE GA impacts through the
day Tuesday with the peak of potential winter precipitation
impacts still expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as
cold air remains in place and a Gulf surface low moves across
south FL into Wed morning.

Recent NBM trends have increased probabilities of snow > 1 inch
Tue evening through Wed morning to 40-60% from Pearson to Waycross
to Jesup northward to the Altamaha River basin, with > 2 inch
snowfall potential 20-40% across this area. The probabilities for
freezing rain south of this line toward the FL Interstate 10
corridor have continued to hold in the 30-40% range for most
locations with an increase to 40-50% chances of freezing rain >
0.10" accumulations from Waycross to Hilliard southward toward
Macclenny and westward along the I-10 corridor. Have also seen a
slight southern shift of freezing rain potential > 0.25" to 20-30%
probabilities between Waycross toward the I-10 corridor.

With these increasing probabilities, anticipate winter weather
watches will be needed for SE GA and likely portions of the FL
I-10 corridor later today, which will put us about 48 hrs out from
the beginning of potential impacts Tuesday afternoon with some
freezing rain potential across SE GA before snow potential
increases into Tue evening as the freezing rain axis shifts
southward through Tue night into Wed toward our FL-GA State-line
and the I-10 corridor.

Farther south across NE FL, expect a cold rain to increase in
coverage Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with precipitation
clearing from NW to SE into Wed afternoon as the surface low
tracks ENE offshore of the SE Atlantic coast with a cold high
pressure wedge extending down across GA. Cold, near daily record
low maximum temperatures in the 30s are likely across much of SE
GA with only the 40s for highs across much of NE FL. Inland
freezes and hard freezes are likely both Tue and Wed nights. Wind
chills are expected to fall into the upper teens and 20s across SE
GA and the Suwannee River Valley both nights to the mid to upper
20s for much of NE FL and cold weather advisories will likely be
needed. Gusty northerly winds Wednesday will make for wind chills
in the 20s and 30s through early afternoon.

Ice accumulations can cause significant impacts to power lines,
utilities, trees and cause very dangerous transportation
conditions. It would be prudent for local interests, especially
across SE GA, the Suwannee River Valley, and near the NE FL
Interstate 10 corridor to consider early winter weather
preparations this weekend including stocking supply kits and
consider loss of power and plan for safe heating alternatives.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Thu...Well below normal temperatures with a chance of showers as
models show a coastal trough lingering but diverge with the
moisture field and it`s proximity to the local coast which will
influence rain potential. Blustery NNE winds Thu are expected with
a chance of rain showers due to increasing isentropic lift
between the low level NNE winds and an approaching long wave
trough from the west. Rainfall potential tappers off Thu night as
high pressure builds in from the west. Expect another freeze
inland for SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley with elevated WNW
winds making wind chills in the 20s Friday morning.

Fri & Sat...Dry with continued inland freezes and below normal
high temperatures as high pressure builds directly over the local
area from the west through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

MVFR and IFR conditions continue at all sites due to rounds of
showers with tempo groups for LIFR at VQQ, GNV and SSI around
13-15z. Weather will begin to improve between 18-21z at all sites
as the front pushes past and dry air begins to fill in behind it.
Precipitation will clear most TAF sites by 22z but will hang
around SGJ until after 00z. Winds will be gusty as the front
pushes through with winds out of the west to northwest of 10-15
kts gusting up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have overspread our local
waters overnight into this morning, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible and producing heavy downpours and gusty
winds. Southwest winds have strengthened overnight ahead of the
approaching Arctic cold front, causing Small Craft Advisory
conditions for the offshore waters. Winds will shift to west-
northwest in the afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses
our area.

High pressure will then build over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
in the wake of this cold front on Monday, with this feature
wedging down the southeastern seaboard by Monday evening as a weak
wave of low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Northeast winds will gradually strengthen on Monday night and will
then shift to northerly on Tuesday night as low pressure
organizes off the northeast Florida coast, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely throughout our local waters on Tuesday
night and Wednesday, along with building seas and potential Gale
conditions.

Rip Currents: Strengthening offshore winds today will keep a low
risk in place at area beaches. A lower-end moderate risk may
develop by Monday afternoon at the northeast FL beaches as winds
become northerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Below are the record lowest maximum temperatures and minimum
temperatures juxtaposed with the current forecasted temperature
ranges next week.

Climate sites are Jacksonville, FL (JAX), Craig Airfield, FL (CRG),
Alma, GA (AMG), and Gainesville, FL (GNV).

 DATE | SITE | Record Low Max | Record Low | Fcst High / Low
 ------------------------------------------------------------
 1/20 | JAX  | 44 (1940)      | 19 (1985)  | 46 / 29
        CRG  | 45 (1994)      | 21 (1985)  | 46 / 31
        AMG  | 37 (1940)      | 16 (1940)  | 42 / 25
        GNV  | 45 (1966)      | 22 (1985)  | 48 / 30
 ------------------------------------------------------------
 1/21 | JAX  | 30 (1985)      |  7 (1985)  | 53 / 33
        CRG  | 30 (1985)      |  9 (1985)  | 53 / 37
        AMG  | 42 (2016)      | 20 (2011)  | 44 / 26
        GNV  | 29 (1985)      | 10 (1985)  | 53 / 34
 ------------------------------------------------------------
 1/22 | JAX  | 41 (2022)      | 16 (1985)  | 43 / 30
        CRG  | 47 (1985)      | 18 (1985)  | 43 / 33
        AMG  | 40 (2022)      | 16 (1985)  | 36 / 25
        GNV  | 46 (2022)      | 17 (1985)  | 44 / 30
 -------------------------------------------------------------
 1/23 | JAX  | 45 (1960)      | 25 (2011)  | 49 / 31
        CRG  | 48 (2003)      | 28 (2011)  | 50 / 36
        AMG  | 42 (2016)      | 20 (2011)  | 40 / 20
        GNV  | 48 (1987)      | 26 (2011)  | 50 / 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  25  42  26 /  30   0   0   0
SSI  65  29  44  34 /  80   0   0  20
JAX  68  29  46  33 /  90   0   0  20
SGJ  69  32  48  38 / 100   0   0  30
GNV  68  30  48  34 /  90   0   0  20
OCF  70  34  50  37 / 100   0   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236-322-325-422-
     425-522.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522.

GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$