064
FXUS64 KJAN 161902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
202 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Tonight and Thursday:

Any lingering fire weather concerns this evening will end overnight
as diurnal RH increases occur with falling temperatures. Tonight,
temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night,
falling into the 50s F as winds turn southerly around the western
flank of the high pressure center responsible for the fair weather.
/86/

Friday into next week...

(Previous discussion below remains valid...)

We could knock on the door of 90 some spots Friday with the peak of
an 850mb thermal ridge. a tight pressure gradient 7 to 8mb will set
up over the area Friday and will lead to gustier winds, especially
in the afternoon with deep boundary layer mixing. A wind graphic may
eventually be needed for Friday.

Moisture will begin to recover later this week with southerly
trajectories becoming established. Our area will remain under the
western periphery of the surface high/upper ridge into the weekend
in advance of a stalled frontal boundary to our northwest. A stout
shortwave will eject across the southern plains and will force this
front across our area Sunday into Monday, forcing the high pressure
to break down. In response, chances for showers and storms will
steadily increase across the area, some of which could be strong.
There is a slight risk in the HWO to capture this possibility, but
the threat looks conditional with some limiting factors working
against a greater severe threat. High heights result in weak lapse
rates and height falls are delayed and/or weak. By the time the
front arrives and the high actually breaks down, upper forcing is
ejecting out of the area.

Next weeks looks to host a whole range of scenarios. While the GFS
pushes the front all the way to the coast, the Euro stalls it just
north of our area. These differences are responsible for the very
different depictions of our weather for next week. GFS pushes the
front through, introducing an airmass change with building ridging
in its wake, while the Euro keeps rain chances with the stalled
boundary. Ensemble data is also variable, but generally keeps the
ridge weak enough to keep some rain chances for next week. I will
say, it does seem probable that the frontal boundary stalls as the
upper forcing is lifting out. What plays out may very well be
something in between. All this said, low pops are maintained into
next week. I`m sure refinements will be made to future forecasts as
data comes into clearer focus./SAS/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the period,
with light and variable winds through at least 12Z Thursday. Winds
will increase out of the south and southeast to around 10kts gusting
to 20kts after that time frame. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  54  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      78  50  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     78  55  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   79  51  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       78  56  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    75  55  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     76  55  84  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/LP/NF