776
FXUS64 KJAN 061438 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
938 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The cold front has pushed southeast of our CWA and the threat for
any severe or additional heavy rain has ended. However, the
positively tilted upper level trough axis will remain west of our
CWA today and the resulting southwest flow aloft will continue to
help maintain low chances of light rain across our CWA.
Temperatures will be significantly cooler today beneath overcast
skies. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today through Saturday...A line of storms, some of which are severe
at times and capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and
potentially a few tornadoes, will continue moving east across
eastern portions of the forecast area now through mid-morning. In
addition to the severe storm threat, due to the very moist airmass
across the area, torrential downpours in a short amount of time
could result in some localized flash flooding. Again, this severe
threat will continue to exist across mainly East Central and
Southeast Mississippi through around 9 AM, before finally exiting
east of the CWA.

While the severe threat comes to an end heading into late morning,
the chance for isolated to scattered showers will linger across a
good portion of the area into the afternoon hours, particularly
across Southeast Mississippi where rain chances will linger into
tonight.  As the cold front continues moving east through the area
and eventually exiting the region later this morning, cooler, drier,
and quieter conditions will begin to prevail across the CWA.
Northwest flow aloft and at the surface will begin ushering in this
noticeably cooler drier airmass.  Luckily these quieter drier
conditions will linger in place across the CWA through the majority
of the work week and into the first part of next weekend.

With the ensuing cooler conditions to begin the work week, expect
lows Monday morning from the middle 40s to around 50 and only
warming into the upper 50s to middle 60s Monday afternoon. Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings will be colder of the mornings in this
airmass, with low to middle 40s expected Tuesday and upper 30s to
middle 40s expected Wednesday morning.  Both high and low
temperatures will steadily begin moderating up from there through
late week.  Currently, the next best chance for rain looks to enter
the forecast Thursday night into early Friday morning, mainly over
the Golden Triangle area, as a weak cold front swings through the
forecast area.  Then pleasant and quiet conditions to start the
weekend. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A line of strong to severe TSRA continues to move east across the
forecast area. Winds will quickly shift out of the northwest and
north in the wake of the squall line. Cold front associated with
this squall line will also bring widespread IFR ceilings and
possible -DZ or -RA through the period, with gradually improving
visibility from west to east. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  46  60  42 /  60  20  10   0
Meridian      75  48  61  41 /  90  30  20   0
Vicksburg     63  46  59  42 /  50  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   78  51  64  42 /  90  50  30   0
Natchez       63  47  59  42 /  50  10  10   0
Greenville    57  44  59  43 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     63  45  61  42 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/NF