439
FXUS64 KJAN 161958
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Tonight and Saturday: Ridging surface and aloft will hang tough to
our south while a nearly stacked low tracks east across the Great
Lakes region and pushes an associated cold front into our CWA.
Convection developing along and ahead of the cold front this
afternoon and evening is progged to move into our northwest zones
later this evening. Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts,
hail to golf ball size and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be
possible generally along and north of a line from Bastrop, Louisiana
to Eupora, Mississippi. Just southeast of this line isolated severe
storms will be possible. Although the severe storm potential should
end by 5am, additional shower and thunderstorm development will
continue Saturday morning as the stalling frontal boundary sags into
central Mississippi. During the heat of the day the frontal boundary
is expected to drift back to the north. More vigorous convection is
expected including the potential for a strong and/or isolated severe
storm to develop in close proximity of the boundary but the main
severe threat looks to hold off until the evening. Temperatures
tonight and Saturday will continue above normal. /22/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

As the frontal boundary continues to progress southward, additional
shortwave disturbances is expected to keep rain/storm chances
throughout the evening. Northwest area of the CWA remains under a
`Slight` risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Damaging wind gust up
to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size and a brief spin up
tornado will be the main concerns within the "Slight" risk.

Another chance for severe weather will be possible on Sunday as a
frontal boundary stall to the north of the CWA. Depending on how
much instability remains in the atmosphere from Saturday`s storms,
isolated severe storms will be possible on Sunday Sunday afternoon
and evening. `Marginal` risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather
continues with the hazards of concerns being damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter-size. Decreasing rain chances are expected to
begin Sunday evening as a mid/sfc ridging pattern will begin to
builds over the southeast CONUS. High (lower 90s)/ low (lower 70s)
temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages. Rain/storm
chances return on Tuesday as the next system approaches.

Upper-lvl trough with a low centered near the Upper Rockies/Mid West
is expected to push a cold front towards the region. As the boundary
approaches, an unstable airmass will be in place and a mid-lvl jet
moving into the area, will help to increase bulk shear. With
possible organized convection, SPC highlighted severe weather
potential for Tuesday. At this time, uncertainty in hazards and
timing and is subject to change over the next few days.

Post frontal passage Wednesday, northwest flow will bring in below
seasonal temperatures and quiet conditions through the end of the
week. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions along with a gusty 20-25kt sw-s wind WL prevail
areawide this aftn. The gusty wind will gradually subside after
23Z and VFR conditions wl continue to prevail until after 08Z Sat
when MVFR cigs wl redevelop. There is a low chance of VCTS across
the north 10z-14Z and IFR cigs are psbl in the south by 10Z.
Conditions wl begin to improve after 15Z and VFR conditions are
expected areawide by 17Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  71  90 /  30  40  20  10
Meridian      72  90  70  91 /  20  40  20  20
Vicksburg     73  90  72  91 /  30  30  20   0
Hattiesburg   74  93  72  93 /   0  20  10   0
Natchez       74  90  71  90 /  10  20  10   0
Greenville    71  89  72  89 /  70  20  40  20
Greenwood     71  90  71  90 /  70  20  40  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/22