823
FXUS64 KJAN 120728
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
228 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Saturday through Saturday night...

Although an upper level trough will try to drop into our region
from the northwest this weekend, high pressure surface and aloft
to our southeast with not only hang tough but actually strengthen
over our CWA. This will lead to lower, mainly afternoon rain
chances and a gradual warming trend. The 00Z SAT JAN sounding
showed a PWAT of 2.02in. Thus, wl maintain a moist airmass across
our CWA this weekend. With the lower rain chances and warmer
temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress
concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river
especially. Peak heat index values will be around 105F Saturday
and around 106F Sunday. Will continue to highlight this area with
a "Limited" for heat stress in our graphics for now. /22/

Monday through next Thursday...

High pressure aloft will gradually retrograde into the region
throughout the forecast period. Overall, this will continue to
promote humid conditions with increasing heat throughout the
forecast period. By the middle of next week, highs will be topping
out in the upper 90s. Along with the increasing heat, will be the
humid conditions that`ll continue to persist across the CWA.
While afternoon heat index values through the weekend will
approach 105F across the CWA, where a "Limited" threat for heat
stress exists, they`re currently forecast to be more in the
105-110F range next Monday through Thursday. This will likely
result in heat advisories being hoisted for portions of, if not
all of, the forecast area during that timeframe. The only relief
from the heat will be in the form of afternoon and early evening
showers and storms that`ll develop during the heat of the day.
Convection will dissipate through the evening hours as daytime
heating wanes, with mild and muggy nights expected as lows only
fall into the low and middle 70s each night. /19/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

There is concern for LIFR category stratus early this morning
mainly over eastern portions of the area along with patchy areas
of BR/FG that could at least briefly impact TAF sites. Stratus
should lift and dissipate by mid/late morning and then focus
would shift to potential impacts from isolated diurnally driven
TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light south-southwest surface
wind should prevail through the forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  74  95  75 /  30  10  30  10
Meridian      94  72  95  73 /  30  20  40  10
Vicksburg     94  74  95  75 /  20  10  30  10
Hattiesburg   96  74  97  75 /  40  10  40  10
Natchez       93  73  94  73 /  30  10  30  10
Greenville    93  74  93  74 /  30  20  30  10
Greenwood     94  74  95  75 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/22/19/