577
FXUS64 KJAN 051835
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1235 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Cool temperatures with rain across the southeast half of the
    area will continue through Saturday.

  - The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into
    Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow:
A few lingering showers will remain possible across southern
portions of the area, nearer a surface boundary that is stalled near
the coast. This precipitation and cloudiness will help moderate
temperatures nearer the coast where areas further inland will be
increasingly seeing dry, continental air filtering in from the
north. For this reason, most areas will remain cool and dry through
Saturday as overnight lows tonight drop into the 30s F for most and
lower 40s F along the highway 84 corridor. Areas along and north of
highway 82 will see some risk for a brief freeze just prior to dawn.

Through next week:

The overall pattern will continue to feature a general ridge pattern
over the western US and a trough in the east. Locally, this will
mean mostly northwesterly flow and reinforcing cool intrusions.
Along with this, the troughy nature of the pattern suggests some
opportunity for periods of precipitation. The first of which could
arrive in the later part of Sunday, featuring a cool or cold rain
with limited hazards likely. Following the first wave and front
Sunday into Monday, the next round of showers and reinforcing cold
front looks likely towards the end of next week when a more robust
shortwave moves through the longwave trough. Uncertainty at the 7
day range with an active jet stream suggests there could be shifts
in timing or intensity of this activity, but there does appear to be
an increased chance for thunder compared to recent activity that has
occurred with very limited thermodynamic instability. Some longer
term guidance suggest dewpoints could rise into the 60s F ahead of
that front which would be probable to support some convective
activity were that to be the case.

Otherwise, temperatures this week will generally be near to slightly
below normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s F and lows in
the middle 30s to 40s F most days with a few opportunities for a
freeze on a few of the chiller nights. For now, the coldest night
appears likely to be Monday night when most areas see temperatures
near freezing with northernmost areas dipping into the middle 20s F.
/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Widespread low stratus deck is causing IFR conditions at most TAF
sites to start the period. Some lifting to MVFR is possible, but
chances increase for return to IFR conditions after 00Z Saturday.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       38  58  45  65 /  10  10  10  30
Meridian      38  56  41  63 /  10  20  10  20
Vicksburg     38  58  44  63 /  10  10  10  40
Hattiesburg   43  60  46  69 /  50  40  10  20
Natchez       39  60  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
Greenville    35  53  42  57 /  10   0  10  20
Greenwood     34  55  41  59 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/NF