264
FXUS64 KJAN 060306 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1006 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Evening satellite imagery showed a stream of high clouds across
our southeast with clear skies elsewhere. These clouds were
associated with a passing upper level disturbance and should shift
east of our CWA by morning. This will allow for the development of
patchy light fog. The forecast remains on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Rest of the weekend through next week (Friday)...

Rest of the weekend (Tonight-Sunday): Ridge of high pressure &
northeasterly low-level flow is a drying wind, as precipitable water
will generally be hanging around an inch. Fog can`t be ruled out in
localized river valleys, but lows shouldn`t cross over below aftn
dewpoints for morning humidity levels to condense out more
significant fog potential. HREF probs are at a minimum, which
favors a medium to high confidence of no fog concerns. Lows will
be seasonably warm (64-68F), some 8-10F above normal. Sunday will
be another aftn of efficient mixing & warmth as dry front
approaches from the northwest. Seasonably warm highs (87-93F) will
be the norm, with a light northeasterly wind. Aftn humidity
should mix out, as dewpoints fall into the low-mid 60s (61-64F)
northwest of the Trace to mid-upper 60s (65-68F) to the southeast.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist of
longwave trough digging into the Great Lakes, with the cold core
across the Hudson Bay. This will drive a dry front across the area
early next week. At the sfc, aftn dewpoints are expected to fall as
low as the upper 40s-low 50s through mid week. This in part will
also be modulated by the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. At
the sfc, a >1020mb sfc high is expected to build in across the OH
Valley into the Great Lakes in the wake of the front, while
tightening pressure gradient will build across the Gulf Coast
region through midweek. Tropical Storm Milton is expected to
develop into a hurricane by early next week & move across the
south-central into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through midweek
before impacting the FL Peninsula. This will aid in a 4-5mb
pressure gradient developing across the region. Winds could gusts
up to 20mph & even potentially >25mph. This could heighten some
fire danger potential through the midweek portion. Will hold off
any mention in the HWO as this will be highly modulated by the
eventual intensification & track of Milton. Seasonably warm highs
(81-89F) will be the norm Monday, some 5-7F above normal, before
more seasonable (77-84F) in the wake of the front early through
late week. Drier & cooler air will bring a taste of fall, with
seasonable lows (51-58F) through the end of the week. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

With the exception of a brief period 11-13Z in the se where MVFR
vsbys wl be psbl, VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  89  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      66  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     66  91  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   68  89  66  90 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       66  89  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    66  91  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     66  91  65  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/DC/22