Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
043 FXUS64 KJAN 272319 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 619 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Tonight through Friday: A brief shower will be possible over western parts of the CWA overnight. Otherwise, a quiet evening with increasing cloud cover is expected through the overnight hours. Lows are expected to be in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Look for increasing rain chances late Friday, mainly over western portions of the area, as a shortwave trough approaches and increases the low level jet and moisture transport. /SW/ Friday night through Saturday night: The shortwave trough mentioned above will continue to approach and move across the area. The combination of moist ascent, relatively strong southerly low level flow, and modest instability should yield considerable shower activity that will peak late Fri night into Sat. The risk for storms is low, but will say the lapse rates/instability could increase some later Saturday, and any discrete low top cells that develop could have access to sufficient low level flow/shear for a brief weak tornado if updraft intensity is strong enough. Rain chances will diminish Sat evening with a mostly quiet overnight. Sunday through Wednesday: The next trough will be larger and much more significant in terms of the potential severe weather that it will produce. Steepening mid level lapse rates and strengthening westerlies above a moist boundary layer will generate more than enough instability and deep layer shear for organized severe storms, with damaging wind/hail being the primary concerns. Timing-wise, Sunday night continues to be the primary window for the the most intense and organized storms, and these may continue into early Monday morning, although it appears more doubtful that we will see a severe risk extend much beyond daybreak in the southeast portion of our area. Will add that based on new guidance probabilities, an enhanced risk area could eventually be added for mainly northwest portions of the forecast area. Overall, the probs generally show a nw-se gradient for the severe risk. After a break in the weather for Monday/Tuesday, global models are refocusing on mid week for the next severe weather threat. Timing remains inconsistent in the guidance so will continue to hold off on any formal messaging, but this should be the next time frame to focus on. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR flight categories, with mid-high level cloudiness & southerly sfc wind, will be the norm the next 24 hours. Winds will become gustier into Friday aftn, sustained up to 15mph & gusts around 25mph. There will be an onset of low probs of light rain at HEZ after 28/22Z Friday. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 81 63 77 / 10 20 30 80 Meridian 58 82 60 76 / 10 10 10 70 Vicksburg 62 80 63 77 / 10 30 50 80 Hattiesburg 59 84 63 79 / 10 10 20 70 Natchez 63 79 63 76 / 10 50 60 90 Greenville 62 78 63 73 / 10 20 60 80 Greenwood 63 81 63 75 / 10 20 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/EC/DC