160
FXUS64 KJAN 061017
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
517 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Through next week (Saturday)...

Increasing heat stress remains the focus through next week. Be
sure to stay cool and hydrated, and use sunscreen if enjoying time
outdoors.

1022mb sfc high is centered over the Appalachians, with 592DM
500mb ridge across the ArkLaTex, Mid South to Mid MS Valley and
eastward. Upper level low is retrograding westward across the
northern Gulf, while Tropical Storm Chantal is approaching the
Carolinas. Northeasterly mid level flow will shift southerly into
early next week. Moisture remains confined across the I-55
corridor. GOES East total precipitable water indicate up to 1.6
to 1.8 precipitable water (PW) resides in the I-55 corridor, while
to the west and east PWs drop to around a little over 1.3 inches.
The best ascent/convergence will shift slightly further west and
north, with a little better isolated to scattered coverage today
(15-45%), with highest coverage in the Hwy 84 corridor. Subtle
northeasterly bulk shear could organize a few stronger storms at
times. There will be some increasing heat stress today, with some
approaching heat headlines in the west. With some drier air around
to the east and west, some lower relative humidity (RH) in the
850-500mb layer may enhance aftn mixing (sfc dewpoints falling as
low as the 68-71F range today), helping keep peak aftn heat
indices below heat headline potential in the northeast (101-104F
today). However, confidence in exceeding is low in the west, so
holding off an any heat advisories for now.

As Chantal makes landfall and the retrograding cutoff low moves
along the northern Gulf Coast, the synoptic pattern will consist
of flattening ridge into the workweek. Combined with increased
moisture building in (close to 2 inches into early to middle
portion of next week), rain chances will become more scattered in
coverage. Seasonably warm highs, some 3-6F above (93-96F), are
expected. Warm advection will keep high boundary level dewpoints
peaking in the 73-78F range this week. Increased heat stress will
continue, so keep the "Elevated" along and west of the Interstate
55 corridor, generally along and west of a line from Grenada to
Jackson to Laurel MS. Potential threat area adjustments and heat
headlines will likely be needed into the week. Diurnal rain and
storm coverage will be in the 30-55% range Monday, 40-60% early
to midweek (Tuesday to Wednesday) and up to 45-65% into late week
to next weekend (Thursday into next weekend). This could keep
highs in check. However, dewpoints will still remain high (mid to
upper 70s). The worst time for muggy conditions still could
reside in the mid morning to midday hours prior to convective
initiation. Longwave trough/shear axis continues to be progged to
swing south into the Mid to Lower MS Valley by late week, keeping
daily diurnal rain and storm activity. Combined with favorable
lapse rates and up to 20kt 0-6km northwest to northerly shear,
some strong to isolated severe storms can`t be ruled out into late
next week and next weekend. This is supported with low machine
learning probs. Confidence remains too low to introduce at this
time. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. However, areas of patchy fog may briefly lower
visibilities and categories through 15Z, particularly at sites
HBG & PIB./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       96  73  93  72 /  20  20  50  10
Meridian      96  71  94  71 /  20  10  40  10
Vicksburg     96  73  94  74 /  20  20  40  10
Hattiesburg   97  73  96  73 /  30  20  50  10
Natchez       93  72  92  72 /  30  20  60  10
Greenville    95  73  94  74 /  10  10  30  10
Greenwood     96  73  95  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP