909
FXUS64 KJAN 071125 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
625 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Through Monday: As mid level ridging begins to retreat southward,
a more active weather pattern will shift into the area this
weekend with a series of shortwaves set to bring multiple rounds
of convection over the next few days. In this regime, because each
round of showers and storms is contingent on mesoscale details
influenced by the previous round, timing is difficult to pin down
more than about 18-24 hours ahead of time. The first system of
interest is currently advancing eastward across OK toward western
AR and is expected to reach our north MS areas around midday or
early afternoon. While the bulk of available guidance keeps the
core of this complex just north of our area, there is still a
medium chance of it clipping as far south as the Hwy 82 corridor
mainly in north central and northeast MS. This is where an
enhanced risk of severe storms has been highlighted with damaging
wind gusts being the primary concern.

Further south, conditions will be mainly dry through much of the
day as this first round of storms is expected to remain north of
most of the area. Isolated, mainly diurnally-driven convection is
possible during the afternoon. However, the potential for
additional widespread development will increase after sunset.
These storms may initially fester in a west-to-east corridor this
evening before eventually making more southeastward progress into
Sunday morning. Given sufficient deep shear and instability, some
of these storms could be severe with a threat for damaging wind
gusts and hail. Additionally, it is possible a localized flooding
threat may need to be highlighted if it becomes more apparent that
tonight`s storms will train over a longer period of time.

From the daytime Sunday through Monday, an additional one or two
convective complexes are expected to traverse the area, including
a potential upstream MCS reaching our area sometime Monday
morning. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with these
storms, though exact timing will play a role in their intensity as
they reach our area. While momentum of a strong cold pool could
sustain a severe threat in the morning hours, given the time of
day, the storms could be in a weakening state as they arrive and
stabilize the airmass, disrupting severe weather potential later
in the day. We`ll have a better idea of how things will play out
as this gets closer. In the mean time, we will continue to
highlight a slight risk for severe potential during this time
frame in the HWO graphics.

Heat stress: With much of the area remaining fairly dry still
today, above average temps and humidity are anticipated, with heat
indices having the potential to again breach the triple digits,
especially along and south of I-20. We will continue to highlight
a limited heat stress threat over roughly the southern half of the
area. /DL/

Tuesday through the weekend...

The forecast for the extended period remains the same with no
major changes made to the overall forecast. Global guidance
continues to show a cold front shifting southward and stalling
across the southeast CONUS heading into Tuesday. This front will
provide some relief from the heat/temp over much of our forecast
area, however it will also keep higher chances of showers and
t-storms around for the rest of the long term period. Most of our
CWA will have higher coverage of shower/t-storm development during
the afternoon period with rain chances decreasing later into the
evening each day. Rain chances will continue across our forecast
area heading into the weekend as future guidance is starting to
show southerly moisture flow across CWA thanks to a warm front
across the southeast CONUS lifting northward towards the Tennessee
Valley.

In addition to the rain chances, heat indices will have the
potential to reach reach triple digits both Friday and Saturday.
Forecast confidence in the potential heat risk for Friday is low
at this time given that this several days out. Heat trends will be
monitored as we get closer to the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Patchy MVFR fog cannot be ruled out over the next hour or two. A
line of SHRA and TS is expected to move across north MS this
afternoon and may impact GTR, with lesser probability of
impacting GLH and GWO. Otherwise, isolated SHRA and TS are
possible across the remainder of the area during the afternoon and
evening. Additional SHRA and TS development is expected tonight
which has a greater potential to impact sites from TVR - JAN -
MEI northward overnight. Some of these storms, both this afternoon
and later tonight, could be severe with wind gusts to 50 kt and
hail up to 1 inch. Outside of this activity, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period with mainly SW wind that could gust
to around 20 kt at times during the day today. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  74  89  72 /  20  20  60  60
Meridian      93  73  89  69 /  30  40  70  60
Vicksburg     94  74  90  72 /  10  20  50  50
Hattiesburg   96  76  94  74 /  20  10  50  50
Natchez       93  75  90  73 /  20  10  30  40
Greenville    91  73  88  72 /  40  60  50  40
Greenwood     92  72  88  70 /  50  70  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/CR