472
FXUS64 KJAN 191903
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
203 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Overall forecast will remain quiet. The
forecast and conditions will be basically persistence. The roughly
5 degree above normal Max/MinT will persist through this period.
PWs will be on the lower side and lower level moisture looks to a
bit lower moving into the weekend resulting is less fair wx cu
each afternoon.

Monday into Thursday...starting the work week we will see the
controlling ridge break down and become more flat as we see energy
(troughing) move through the Rockies and into the mid MS River
Valley. This will play a role in getting return flow and increasing
moisture to make its way back into the area as deeper S/SE flow
gets going. There will also be a weak front that tries to
approach the region from the north, but there are indications that
it won`t make it into the area. Any rain chance will be on the low
side (20-30%) starting as early as Tue and lingering into Thu.
Conditions will continue to be roughly 5 degrees warmer for Max/Min
T with some trend toward near seasonal by the end of the forecast.

Some focus is on the latter week and into next weekend and around
any potential tropical development. Overall, looking at the western
Carribean and southern Gulf in the Day 6 to 9 periods (Wed-Sat) for
potential development. Nearly all the global models and their
ensembles show something developing. However, variability exists in
timing of development along with location/track variations. Ensemble
consensus favors more of a central conus trough (strength varies)
and would help keep any tropical entity more on the E side of the
Gulf. Another scenario for a pattern shows more ridging in the
central conus due to a faster trough and this would favor a more
SW/W Gulf. As always, run to run trends in the governing pattern
will be the key and will need to watch how any favored regime
develops or evolves as we get closer.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Quiet TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing. Slight focus this
afternoon is the Few/Sct fair weather cu based at 4-6 kft. Look
for this to dissipate by 22-00z and a clear night to prevail.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      67  92  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     67  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    66  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  92  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/