248
FXUS64 KJAN 040153 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
853 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A pleasant weather day is now translating into a pleasant weather
evening, as mostly clear conditions persist within a relatively
dry airmass. The main question this evening is how much low cloud
development will be seen overnight. Highest probabilities are
across east MS, mainly east of I-55, with areas farther west more
likely to remain clear. The near term forecast was updated to
tweak sky cover to reflect this thinking, with no other changes
planned at this time. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Today through Monday:

Post-frontal passage continues to provide relief from the previous
days of oppressive heat as drier air filters into the region,
dropping dewpoints into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Clear skies with
seasonal temperatures (highs: upper 80s/lower 90s, lows: upper
60s/lower 70s) are expected for the rest of the afternoon. An
isolated shower in the southeast can`t be ruled out this afternoon
as the stationary front settles along the Gulf coastline. Patchy fog
may be possible near sunrise in the southwest.

Tuesday through Saturday:

As the ridge moves into the area, temps and dewpoints will begin to
increase over the next several days. With the increase in moisture
rain chances return as diurnal showers/storms will be possible in
the afternoon to early evening timeframe. In addition to increasing
moisture, afternoon temps in the lower/mid 90s with heat indices
ranging between upper 90s to lower 100s are expected. MS Delta could
see the heat indices near 105 degrees. Will continue to monition if
heat graphics/products will be needed towards the end of the
period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the area early this evening.
Overnight into Monday morning, a low stratus deck is expected to
develop across east MS, potentially expanding as far west as GWO/
JAN/HKS around daybreak. Ceilings may become as low as IFR for a
few hours around daybreak, and MVFR conditions may persist through
late morning or early afternoon across east MS. Isolated to
scattered SHRA and TS are possible, mainly across southeast MS,
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period with mainly light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  92  72  92 /   0  10  10  40
Meridian      71  87  70  88 /   0  30  20  50
Vicksburg     67  93  72  93 /   0  10  10  30
Hattiesburg   73  92  73  92 /  10  40  30  70
Natchez       68  92  72  93 /   0  10  10  30
Greenville    66  90  69  91 /   0   0  10  20
Greenwood     68  91  70  91 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SW