874
FXUS64 KJAN 011733
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Currently, we are seeing isolated showers along the western
periphery of the CWA. We will continue to maintain low-end pops
(15%) areawide through mid-afternoon. A slot of ample low-level
moisture remains stagnant across the area. While not much, some
patchy fog has been observed across the northeastern portions of
the CWA. This ample amount of moisture will aid in keeping mid and
high level clouds around throughout the day. We anticipate an
approaching cold front overnight to finally clear out the remnant
tropical moisture from hurricane Helene as northwesterly flow will
become dominant./KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper low is evident on satellite and resulting in isolated
showers this morning. Patchy fog is also possible, but should be
limited in the presence of the low. This feature should continue to
promote isolated showery activity today and thus have opted to add
low end (16%) PoPs to account for this. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies should prevail, and most areas will likely remain dry today
with quiet conditions persisting into tonight.

Wednesday through early next week...

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will result in temperatures
warming slightly above normal mid to late week and clearing skies,
with pleasant conditions persisting through mid week. By late
Thursday into Friday, rain chances will steadily increase, mainly
south of the I-20 corridor, as the southern stream becomes more
active. This pattern will also help to deflect a potential tropical
system away from our area. We will continue to monitor upper
steering patterns and environmental conditions regarding this
potential system and provide any updates as needed.

Ridging aloft will keep persistent above average temperatures
through late week into the weekend with a return to quiet conditions
as moisture is suppressed south. By early next week, an upper trough
over the Great Lakes and associated cold front will usher in cooler
and drier air. These conditions will result in temperatures dropping
into the 50s Monday and Tuesday night, perhaps the coolest
temperatures our area has seen in quite some time./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through the period.
Sites MEI, HBG, and PIB will have a brief lowering in category
due to BR/lowering ceilings around 10Z. Winds will be northerly
and light generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      63  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     62  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   66  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       64  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    58  81  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     58  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/SAS20/