383
FXUS64 KJAN 120229
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
929 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail
   through this weekend. No hazardous weather impacts are
   anticipated over the next week.

 - Limited fire danger conditions are expected to continue in
   portions of East Mississippi and Southeast Mississippi through
   this weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The forecast is on track and no significant adjustments are needed
this evening. Previously made a little minor adjustment to lower
low temperatures given clear skies and light wind in the dry air.
/EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Tonight through Sunday...

Stagnant but seasonable conditions will continue this weekend. The
Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to
the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east. This will keep
northeasterly low level flow and dry advection of low humidity
aloft/precipitable water below 0.75 inches through the weekend.
Dewpoints should mix out in the 47F to 53F range east of I55 and 54F
to 60F to the west. Combined with seasonably warm highs, afternoon
minimum relative humidity could fall into the 30 to 40 percent
range. As the gradient relaxes, lows could fall near seasonable
levels, as low as 48 to 50F in the Hwy 45 corridor, outside of areas
northwest of the Natchez Trace. Both low relative humidity and
drying fuels support continued advertisement of Limited fire danger
in GHWO, mainly east of I55 through Sunday. However, this is a low
end risk. This may persist into early next week but light winds may
limit potential.

Next week into next weekend...

Ridge to the west will propagates eastward across the ArkLaTex into
the Gulf Coast region through midweek. As it moves near or over the
northern Gulf, mean ridging will fall from around 593 to 595DM to
around 586DM into mid to late week. Low level trajectories will
become more southerly into late week, helping mean moisture profiles
to increase. Dry period is expected through the work week, with
continued curing of dry fuels and afternoon warmth and low humidity
(85F to 90F highs and 28 to 40 percent minimum RHs). An increase in
southerly return flow will help highs and lows moderate seasonably
warm (highs some 8F to 12F above by mid to late week and lows some
10F to 15F by late week). There are some indications of frontal
convergence into next weekend and combined with an increase in mean
moisture, some scattered rain probabilities next weekend (up to 30
percent). /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      50  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     54  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   52  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       54  85  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    56  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     53  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/