709
FXUS64 KJAN 300805 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
305 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Evening satellite imagery still showed circulation around a closed
low spinning between the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys that was
helping maintain cloud cover over the northern half of our CWA.
These clouds have broken up considerably since this afternoon and
that trend is expected to lend to fog development toward morning.
Some of the fog may become dense but should remain patchy. Our
northern zones will continue to be monitored overnight for the
possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Tonight through tomorrow: The remnant low is rotating across the
Mid-MS River Valley and beginning to slowly lift east across the
TN Valley into the Appalachians. This will allow for quiet weather
conditions to occur across central MS heading into the evening.
Expect overnight lows to dip into the low-mid 60s. As we begin to
transition into the overnight period, HREF guidance is starting to
pick up on some fog potential across our northern/eastern zones.
We went ahead and introduced a risk for dense fog given the
stagnant conditions and due to the HREF showing decent
probabilities (between 40-50%) of low visibility. Areas across
the north central were upgraded to an "Elevated" due to the HREF
highlighting slightly higher probabilities in excess of 50-60%.
The fog potential will hang around for a couple of hours well into
the overnight period before clear out of the area during the mid
morning. By Monday afternoon, cloud conditions will begin to
decrease slightly with quiet weather conditions expected. Expect
afternoon highs will peak into the mid 80s across our forecast
area. /CR/

Tomorrow night through Saturday night: Overall, the weather for
the forecast area will generally be quiet, but we`ll continue to
monitor for tropical cyclone development well to our south as we
go later into the week.

Weak mid level ridging and surface high pressure will have the
greatest influence on our weather through mid week, resulting in
dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures. Later in the
week, upper level westerlies associated with an increasingly
active subtropical jet stream over southern states, could help to
increase moisture transport and rain chances over southern
portions of the area, especially by Thu/Fri.

Otherwise, there continues to be potential for a tropical
depression to develop in the northwest Caribbean Sea and move into
the Gulf of Mexico per NHC. In our area, it appears the active
westerlies will help to deflect any potential system away from us,
but all are encouraged to continue monitoring for any forecast
changes. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

MVFR vsby & some low stratus/ceilings is psbl across the northern
TAF sites before IFR/LIFR ceilings & dense fog/low vsby develops.
Some areas of VLIFR vsby & localized stratus/ceilings are psbl.
Dense fog/stratus & low flight restrictions will begin to lift by
30/15Z Monday & improve quickly thereafter. VFR conditions are
expected areawide again by 30/17-18Z. Light northwesterly winds,
generally less than 10mph, are expected today. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  66  86  65 /  10   0  10   0
Meridian      84  64  86  64 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     87  67  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       87  67  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    84  65  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     84  64  86  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ025>033-
     035>039-042>046.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/EC/DC