139
FXUS64 KJAN 301830 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
130 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure aloft will steadily slide
further east and deeper into the forecast area throughout the work
week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.  By mid-week, a trough
to the north will send a cold front further south and into the CWA
through the end of the work week.  As the front`s mid/upper level
support shifts east and along the east coast, the front will
essentially hang up and stall just south of north central gulf coast
into the weekend.

Ahead of the front, hot and very humid conditions will continue to
prevail across the forecast area.  This afternoon, a good coverage
of showers and storms can be expected, especially across eastern
portions of the area on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
high aloft.  Some of the more intense storms during this time will
be capable of producing gusty winds, but frequent lightning and
heavy downpours will be possible will all storms that develop.  Then
on Tuesday, with the addition of some better forcing as the front
drops closer to the CWA, along with the already moist and unstable
airmass, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms will exist
across the majority of the area.  Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary concern with any severe storms.  This activity will begin to
weaken and wane in coverage after sunset each evening.

As the front pushes south through the forecast area Wednesday, and
remains south of the CWA into the weekend, some slightly drier air
will seep into the region.  Chances for afternoon and evening
showers and storms will also be shunted further south and ahead of
the front.  Despite this drier air advecting into the region, the
lesser coverage of both convection and clouds each day through the
weekend, will result in hotter afternoon temperatures as highs will
eventually peak into the mid and upper 90s areawide.  Once again,
this could result in another round of potential "heat advisories"
portions of, if not all of, the forecast area Saturday into Sunday.
Speaking of Sunday, some subtle amounts of moisture will begin
increasing across the region, resulting in a few more showers and
storms developing across the area in the heat of the afternoon. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions to begin the TAF period at all sites, however
isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through around 01Z Tuesday
could bring variable visibility and ceilings. Increasing chances
for low stratus with MVFR or IFR ceilings at eastern MS sites
after 09Z, lifting and mixing back into VFR range by 15Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  73  91 /  20  70  30  20
Meridian      72  90  71  90 /  20  70  30  20
Vicksburg     75  93  73  92 /  20  60  20  20
Hattiesburg   74  93  73  94 /  30  80  30  40
Natchez       74  91  73  90 /  20  60  20  30
Greenville    74  90  73  91 /  30  40  10  20
Greenwood     74  90  72  92 /  20  60  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009-016-025.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

06/19