913
FXUS64 KJAN 200118 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
818 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Gulf Coast region remains on the eastern periphery of ridging over
the International Border, locking in dry northwest flow, per
1.2-1.6 inch precipitable water (PWs) observed in regional 00Z
soundings & GOES East total PWs. Sfc ridge parked over the area
will favor light to calm conditions overnight & another night of
favorable radiational cooling environment. Lows will be
seasonably warm (64-69F) overnight. Low-level boundary layer
continues to dry, so fog potential remains too low confidence to
add any mention. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Overall forecast will remain quiet. The
forecast and conditions will be basically persistence. The roughly
5 degree above normal Max/MinT will persist through this period.
PWs will be on the lower side and lower level moisture looks to a
bit lower moving into the weekend resulting is less fair wx cu
each afternoon.

Monday into Thursday...starting the work week we will see the
controlling ridge break down and become more flat as we see energy
(troughing) move through the Rockies and into the mid MS River
Valley. This will play a role in getting return flow and increasing
moisture to make its way back into the area as deeper S/SE flow
gets going. There will also be a weak front that tries to
approach the region from the north, but there are indications that
it won`t make it into the area. Any rain chance will be on the low
side (20-30%) starting as early as Tue and lingering into Thu.
Conditions will continue to be roughly 5 degrees warmer for Max/Min
T with some trend toward near seasonal by the end of the forecast.

Some focus is on the latter week and into next weekend and around
any potential tropical development. Overall, looking at the western
Carribean and southern Gulf in the Day 6 to 9 periods (Wed-Sat) for
potential development. Nearly all the global models and their
ensembles show something developing. However, variability exists in
timing of development along with location/track variations. Ensemble
consensus favors more of a central conus trough (strength varies)
and would help keep any tropical entity more on the E side of the
Gulf. Another scenario for a pattern shows more ridging in the
central conus due to a faster trough and this would favor a more
SW/W Gulf. As always, run to run trends in the governing pattern
will be the key and will need to watch how any favored regime
develops or evolves as we get closer.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Quiet & dry TAF period expected the next 24 hours. Some fair
weather cumulus across the region around the 6-8kft range will
dissipate in the next hour, with clear skies/VFR flight categories
expected. Winds will be near calm tonight & light northerly wind
Friday, generally less than 10mph sustained. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     67  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    66  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/CME/DC