214
FXUS64 KJAN 101148 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Short Term: The short term continues to be quiet and clear. The
surface high centered over Missouri continues to build in to the
area, allowing for benign weather for the next couple of days.
Overnight temperatures seemed to hold a bit higher than previously
expected but we`re now trending more in line, so we will maintain
our mid 50s F early morning temperature forecast for the area.

Looking towards the daytime, again; there`s not much in the way of
excitement. Highs are looking to be in the mid 80s across all zones,
with a continuation of clear skies providing some phenomenal weather
for a brisk outdoor hike this afternoon, especially considering our
mild humidity.

Expect this evening and tonight to be more or less the same as
last night and evening. Nothing of note beyond lower, more
seasonable temperatures./OAJ/

Friday through Wednesday night: Dry weather is expected through the
period. We will see a warming trend with above normal temperatures
through Sunday night but cooler than normal temperatures are
expected by Tuesday and will continue through Wednesday night. Normal
highs run in the upper 70s to near 80F southeast. Normal lows run in
the lower 50s.

Come Friday morning our region will still be under a split flow
regime with the southern branch of the jet streaming overhead while
a >1024mb high centered over the Ohio valley ridges back to the
southwest across our CWA. This will initially keep our dry airmass
in place with a PWAT below one inch. The surface high will shift
east and return flow will begin to increase moisture back across our
region with PWATs back above one inch by Sunday. This will occur as
a northern stream shortwave drops out of the northern Plains and
over the Great Lakes region. This shortwave will support a surface
low that will send another dry cold front south toward our CWA. This
cold front is expected to move across our CWA Monday and be south of
our CWA by Monday evening. The shortwave is progged to close off a
low over Ontario and further deepen the mean trough as it moves over
Quebec. Another shortwave dropping down the backside of the closed
low Tuesday will further deepen the upper level trough over our
region and draw down some of the coolest air of the season for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A >1026mb high is expected to drop
over the mid Mississippi river valley Tuesday night and spread over
our CWA and setting up decent radiational cooling that will
result in morning lows in the 40s Wednesday morning. The surface
high will shift east to the Ohio valley by Thursday morning. This
will help hold much of our CWA in the 60s Wednesday with morning
lows back in the 40s Thursday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  57  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      81  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   83  56  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       84  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    85  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     84  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/22/OAJ