673
FXUS64 KJAN 161812
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
112 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
   morning for parts of the area.

 - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air.
   Rain chances return Monday evening into Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Tonight through Saturday Night:

Ridging pattern over the MS River Valley keep persistent clear and
dry conditions through Friday. As the ridge migrates eastward, winds
gradually shift from N/NE to S/SW, increasing moisture across the
area ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

As the ridge shifts, a mid-lvl trough will push a cold front towards
the ArkLaMiss region Saturday; bringing shower/storm chances (along
with severe weather potential) to parts of the region. Best area of
instability and thermodynamic parameters will be confined northwest
of the CWA; however, near the MS Delta could see a "Slight" risk (2
out of 5 ) with damaging winds up to 60s and quarter to golfball
size hail possible. From NE LA to parts of southern MS, a "Marginal"
(1 out of 5) risk with damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter
size. At this time, the estimate for storm timing is looking to be
Saturday night/overnight into Sunday morning. As the system
evolves,continue to check back for refinement on severe weather
potential and timing.

Sunday afternoon/evening through next Wednesday:

Cold front is expected to push through the area on Sunday, bringing
drier air and keeping average to slightly above-average (5-10
degrees above climatology) temperatures in the forecast.  Showers
are expected to return Monday night (15-20% rain chances) into
Tuesday (20-30% chances) as a shortwave disturbance passes over the
region. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower/mid 70s,
reaching near 80 degrees, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s by the
end of the extended period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through
the TAF period at all sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  89  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      60  89  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     62  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   62  90  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       63  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    62  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  20
Greenwood     63  91  65  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/NF