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FXUS64 KJAN 191438 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
938 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rest of Today...Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface
will remain in control of the weather across the region today.
Much like Friday, low stratus that developed across the area during
the early morning hours will eventually erode. This will give way
to a mix of partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies this afternoon,
with some high clouds also visible overhead. Warm humid conditions
will exist, as highs range from the mid to upper 80s with breezy
south winds.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast, no major changes
will be made on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Today and Tonight:

Today will be another breezy summer-ish day with warm
temperatures reaching into the mid-upper 80s with some spots again
having the potential to reach 90 degrees. The upper-level ridge
and ridging at the surface will persist across the southeastern
states shielding our area from rain chances as the system just to
our west slowly pushes eastward. Southwesterly flow will allow for
some moisture recovery with resulting breezy conditions and
mostly cloudy skies today. We can expect to see overnight lows in
the mid 60s to right around 70. /KP/

Easter Sunday: After a recent stretch of drier weather, we`ll
have increasing opportunities for rain heading into next week. The
good news is that Sunday morning is looking mostly dry for Easter
activities, save for low clouds in many areas and perhaps a
sprinkle here or there. By afternoon we may begin to see isolated
to scattered warm advection showers mainly along and west of the
MS River, but a cap appears likely to keep a lid on most rain
activity. On Sunday evening, a fairly potent upper shortwave will
pivot from the Ozarks toward the Great Lakes, dragging a cold
front toward our area overnight. Thunderstorms will likely develop
along the front to our west earlier in the day. While deep layer
shear should be strong enough for organized convection, forcing
over our area is expected to be meager due to boundary-parallel
flow and very modest height falls. This should result in storms
beginning to struggle as they move into our area, with outflow
increasingly outrunning the storms and limiting their intensity.
There remains a marginal threat for stronger upstream storms to
have enough momentum to remain severe as they move into our far
north LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS counties Sunday evening,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. However, even in that
scenario, they should quickly lose steam as they cross the MS
River.

Monday through Friday: With the lack of upper forcing, the
incoming front will stall across our area on Monday into Tuesday,
bringing good chances for rain. Though deep shear will be fairly
weak for a more organized storm threat, instability is forecast to
be high enough for thunderstorms to be in the mix during this
time frame. Our Delta areas will see slightly cooler temps on
Monday, but most of us will remain on the warm, humid side of the
front.

The front will retreat northward Tuesday into Wednesday. A series
of upper disturbances will provide potential for mainly diurnal
rain chances during the middle and end of the week within the
humid and seasonably warm airmass. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A broken deck of MVFR/IFR stratus encompasses the area this
morning. Ceilings will improve to VFR in most areas by mid-morning
though higher clouds will likely persist through the day.
Southerly winds will be gusty at times during daylight hours,
subsiding near sunset. Another round of MVFR or IFR stratus is
anticipated early Sunday morning. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  66  85  69 /   0   0  10  20
Meridian      88  62  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     88  67  85  69 /   0   0  10  30
Hattiesburg   87  65  85  66 /   0   0   0  20
Natchez       86  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  20
Greenville    86  67  84  66 /   0  10  20  60
Greenwood     87  67  85  69 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19