981
FXUS64 KJAN 120901
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
401 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our
southwest Mississippi zones. Early morning surface analysis had an
1011mb low centered over our north central Mississippi zones. These
two features will lift slowly to the northeast through tonight
becoming centered over the Tennessee valley by Tuesday morning.
Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led
to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as
compared to last night. Satellite imagery shows significant breaks
in the overcast as well. The low pressure system will continue to
help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning.
Daytime heating will lead to greater development including scattered
to numerous coverage by mid afternoon. Similar to yesterday, the
greatest coverage will be over the northeast half of our CWA where
thunderstorms can also be expected mid afternoon into early evening.
The convection will show a diurnal trend this evening but the
surface low and closed low will be to our north resulting in
decreasing rain chances from the southwest as well. Temperatures
will be cooler than normal again today and tonight. /22/

Tuesday through Sunday...The mid/upper level low pressure system
responsible for the rain and storms across the forecast area the
past few days, will lift northeast of the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.  Before it exits, this weakness will again result in
scattered to numerous showers, along with a few thunderstorms,
across mainly the Golden Triangle area Tuesday afternoon.  This
activity will dissipate in the late afternoon, as heating wanes and
the low lifts further northeast and out of the region.  Otherwise,
look for highs Tuesday afternoon from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with
lows Tuesday night from the middle 60s to around 70.

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will setup across the
region Wednesday into Thursday.  This will result in a return to
quieter conditions, but with increasing temperatures.  On Friday,
the ridge will begin flattening, with quasi-zonal flow prevailing
across the CWA through the weekend. It`ll be during this Friday
through Sunday timeframe, that a couple of disturbances aloft are
advertised to affect the region.  These disturbances, combined with
the expected unstable airmass that`ll be present across the region,
in addition to some flow, could yield some potential for a complex
of storms or two, possibly affecting portions of the CWA.  Again,
this will be in the Friday through Sunday timeframe. This is still
several days out.  Please continue to monitor the latest forecast
for the most up-to-date information.

As eluded to above, temperatures will be on the rise areawide under
the influence of the aforementioned ridge and high pressure.  Highs
will steadily warm through mid-week, with low to mid 90s expected
nearly areawide come Thursday, with lows struggling to fall out of
the 70s.  The upper 80s to lower 90s will continue each afternoon
heading into the weekend.  However with the increased rain chances
around each afternoon, convection, and outflow and clouds associated
with it, will likely keep highs slightly less than what they could
potentially reach. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions were observed at 0530Z north and south with MVFR
cigs at the cntrl TAF sites. Conditions are expected to lower to
MVFR/IFR areawide by 10Z. LIFR cigs wl be psbl 11-13Z in the east
and se. Conditions wl improve back to VFR areawide by 19Z.
Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA wl develop across the ne half of
the area during the aftn and early evening before dissipating.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  61  83  66 /  60  10  10   0
Meridian      76  58  81  63 /  70  20  30   0
Vicksburg     76  61  85  67 /  40  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  59  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
Natchez       75  60  85  68 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    74  63  83  68 /  50  20  10   0
Greenwood     77  62  82  67 /  70  30  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/19/22