738
FXUS64 KJAN 070824
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
224 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Today through Early this Weekend...

The stalled boundary lying through western portions of Mississippi
in conjunction with moist, Gulf return flow around the western flank
of the subtropical ridge centered off the coast of the Carolinas
will be our primary meteorological drivers for the near to mid term
forecast. Weak, largely disparate surface confluence patterns along
and near the surface front, enhanced by daytime heating will provide
enough lift during the afternoon to produce some showers and
isolated thunderstorms across most forecast zones into the weekend.
As the front washes out over the next few days, remnant weaker low
level convergence is expected to persist amid continued increases in
mid to upper level moisture channeled into the area by the flow
around the aforementioned ridge. That being said, coverage and
strength of showers/thunderstorms will increase throughout the week.
While confidence in increasing rain chances is high, there remains
considerable model variance in prospective rainfall totals. As short-
range/convective allowing models begin to cover this time period
over the next day or so, increased confidence in specifics of the
forecast detail is likely.

The Weekend through Mid Next Week...

There looks to be a relatively weak cold front making its way into
the area late this weekend, which will prompt reinforcement of
thunderstorm/shower probabilities for the area. We will get some
short lived reprieve to our unseasonably warm temperatures for
Sunday and Monday, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid
50s, but with the dominate entrenched subtropical ridge steering our
weather pattern our general conditions will be moderated.

One notable tweak made to the NBM blend was to bump temperatures
down a few degrees mostly along and north of I-20 on Tuesday
morning. Guidance spread is large, but there is increasing
confidence that a likely weak cold front will make at least some
progress south Monday night as mentioned above. 00Z forecast
guidance (GEM/GFS/EURO) has shifted somewhat cooler and should the
more aggressive solutions pan out, lows Tuesday morning could even
fall into the 40s F. For now, advertising lower 50s F north of I-20,
a revision down from the middle 50s F suggested by model blends.

As a further note, it looks like we will finally start to see more
autumnal weather late next week, bringing an end to our long string
of record breaking highs for the rest of the year.

Finally, discussing the tropics: Rafael is not expected to have any
impacts for the forecast area and will likely remain well south of
the ArkLaMiss through the forecast period./OAJ/86/


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Mixture of IFR to LIFR stratus & fog are expected overnight. There
is some ongoing lower IFR stratus near the sfc frontal zone at
GLH, with some more advecting in from the southeast near MEI, HBG
& PIB currently. Flight restrictions will plummet to as low as
LIFR areawide after 07/08-14Z. Some areas of fog could be dense at
times, especially near GLH, GWO & west of JAN & HKS, with patchy
dense fog possible at other TAF sites. Expect conditions to
improve to MVFR around 15-16Z & lift to VFR by midday to early
afternoon. Winds will be light from the east-northeast. /DC/|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  68  82  68 /  20  20  30  40
Meridian      82  65  81  66 /  10  10  20  20
Vicksburg     83  65  81  68 /  10  20  30  50
Hattiesburg   85  69  85  69 /  10  10  20  10
Natchez       84  68  81  68 /  10  10  30  40
Greenville    73  61  76  64 /  10  10  20  50
Greenwood     81  63  80  66 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/LP/OAJ