263
FXUS64 KJAN 150248
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
848 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

One of the cooler nights in some time is underway with
temperatures having fallen well into the 50s even upper 40s under
clear skies and light wind. Based on the recent obs trends, have
cut overnight low temperatures by a few degrees, but all is
generally on track for the near term forecast. A few areas of fog
could develop with guidance mostly pointing to locations
along/west of the MS River, and have added this for the late night
to early morning forecast. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Through next week...

A dry post frontal airmass will keep temperatures seasonable today
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s overnight tonight. This
will be short lived however, as ridging builds in from the west this
weekend. This will bring about drying reinforcing air and promote
above normal temperatures once again this weekend with highs in the
70s. Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to steadily increase
early next week with some 80s possible as ridging shifts east,
reestablishing southerly flow.

This southerly flow, in conjunction with a shortwave trough over
the southern plains making its way into the area, will support
increased rain and storm chances Monday and Tuesday. At this time,
any chance for severe or damaging convective activity looks to be
limited given the lack of instability and most forcing being
deflected to the north with SE ridging holding strong. Some
thunderstorms will be possible along the attendant surface cold
front as it passes through the area, most likely Tuesday evening.
This cold front looks to mark a much greater pattern shift
characterized by far cooler/colder temperatures. Blocking
downstream (-NAO) along with a building ridge over the Pacific
northwest (+PNA), should force a Canadian high south towards our
area. First freeze of the season is becoming increasingly likely
possibly by late next week. There is still some uncertainty at
this time with the evolution of the synoptic pattern. Should the
lead shortwave eject quicker with less phasing, there could be a
second wave that could delay the freeze to beyond the forecast
period and potentially promote a secondary chance for severe
weather. Given this is still at the end or just after the forecast
period, expect updates and adjustments as details come into
focus./SAS/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions and light north to northeast surface wind will
prevail for the most part. Areas of fog may develop mainly over
western portions of the forecast area late tonight into early
Friday morning under clear skies and light wind. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       43  70  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      41  68  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     41  70  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  73  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       43  71  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    43  66  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     42  68  42  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SAS/OAJ/EC