720
FXUS64 KJAN 281710
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1110 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

No major changes have been made to the forecast package. High
pressure will be dominant throughout the day keeping conditions
dry and very pleasant. Skies will be mostly clear with high
temperatures expected to warm into the low 70s, slightly above
climatological averages./KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today and Tonight: It will be dry with warmer than normal
temperatures through the period. Early morning surface analysis had
a 1020mb high centered over the southern Plains and a dry cold front
dropping into the central Plains from a surface low near the
Minnesota/Canadian boarder. The surface high will shift east
southeast and weaken through tonight as it becomes centered over the
northern Gulf coast. The cold front to the north will continue to
approach our CWA today and tonight aided by another northern stream
shortwave that will deepen the mean trough over the northeast CONUS.
This dry reinforcing cold front is expected to enter our northwest
most zones just prior to sunrise Saturday. Under near full
insolation today, temperatures will top out in the lower 70s. Skies
will be mostly clear tonight but there will be a light southwest
wind ahead of the approaching cold front that will hold temperatures
a couple degrees above seasonal norms in the mid to upper 40s. /22/

Saturday through Friday...

Global guidance highlights a weak shortwave embedded in northwest
flow aloft dropping southeast into and through the southeast region.
This will allow for a weak dry cold front to continue to track
southeastward across the forecast area through much of the day on
Saturday with generally quiet weather and mostly clear skies
expected. The dry cold front will continue its southward track
towards southern MS heading into Saturday evening. Looking ahead
into Sunday, a 1028 mb sfc high will build over the Ohio Valley
Region with the aforementioned cold front out of our forecast area
and continuing southward towards the Gulf Coast. This will result
in a continuation of quiet weather conditions along with near
seasonable conditions across our CWA. Conditions will remain quiet
through Sunday night as guidance continues to show a cutoff sfc
low over the Four Corners Region beginning to shift east towards
the Southern Plains.

Looking ahead into Monday, guidance shows the cutoff low hovering
over the Southern Plains tracking northeastward to our north. This
passing disturbance will cause for winds to become more southerly,
allowing for moisture flow to increase across our CWA. As this
disturbance passes to the north by Monday afternoon/evening,
scattered showers will be possible across our forecast area. Areas
along and west of I-55 could see slightly higher rain chances (with
PoPs between 25-30%).

Tuesday through Wednesday morning will be the main focus regarding
severe weather potential. Guidance shows a stronger mid/upper level
low pressure system along with a associated trough, located on the
southern periphery of this low pressure system, racing east across
the Southern Plains by Tuesday afternoon. This low pressure system
will then pivot northeast across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
towards the Great Lakes Region heading into Tuesday evening/night.
This result in a strong sfc low developing, which will follow suit
with its mid/upper level support. The associated cold front will
drag east and through our CWA late Tuesday afternoon into late
Tuesday night. This allow for all modes of severe weather to develop
across our forecast area. The Euro guidance continues to be the more
aggressive model for this system as it continues to show the best
cluster of instability, wind shear, and moisture for these areas
with the GFS slowly catching up to match the intensity of the Euro.

A few adjustments have been made to the severe graphic for Tuesday
and the "Enhanced" Risk has been trimmed slightly to the north
based on the new Day 5 Outlook by SPC. The "Enhanced" Risk (3 out
of 5) will continue to be advertised across areas mainly along and
west of a line from near West Point, MS, to Philadelphia, MS to
Brookhaven, MS. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph along with
tornadoes will be the primary hazards for these areas. Elsewhere,
a "Slight" Risk (2 out of 5) will continue to be advertised areas
across east and southeast Mississippi with the main hazards being
damaging winds up to 60 mph and tornadoes possible. There is still
a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this
severe potential given that this system is still several days out.
Trends will continued to be monitored as we get closer so be sure
to check back for updates as the forecast progresses.

Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times. Currently,
rainfall totals will range anywhere from around a half inch to
around 2 inches. Several locations along and north of I-20 could see
locally higher amounts. Given that this system will moving quiet
fast across our CWA, flash flooding concerns will be low; however,
some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. There is a
possibility that some of this rainfall could cause multiple rivers
to reach flood stage across the area. Precip trends will continued
to be monitored as we get closer to this event.

This system will exit our forecast area looking ahead into Wednesday
as the cold front pushes off to east towards Alabama with a few
lingering showers possible mainly east of I-55. The sfc low over the
Great Lakes will continue to push east towards the Upper East Coast
by Wednesday evening. At the same time, another cold front over the
Central Plains will track southeastward towards our forecast area
looking ahead into Wednesday night. Cooler and quiet conditions will
prevail across our CWA looking ahead into Thursday as guidance shows
a 1020 mb sfc high over the Central Plains building east into the
region. This high pressure will continue to shift east across the
southeast CONUS leading to quiet weather conditions Friday morning.
Future guidance is starting to show the sfc high slowly tracking
east out of our forecast area allowing for rain chances to make a
brief return across our forecast heading into the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be
light and northerly generally less than 10kts./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  71  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      46  74  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     46  70  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   47  78  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       47  72  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    46  64  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     45  66  37  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/CR/22