552
FXUS64 KJAN 131723 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather, warm afternoons, and cool mornings prevail
   through the work week.

 - Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast area on
   Saturday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Rest of Today...High pressure at the surface remains wedged into the
forecast area from the northeast, while ridging aloft continues to
increase its presence across the region today.  This will result in
continued warm temperatures this afternoon, with less humid
conditions as dew points mix into the 50s.  Under sunny skies, highs
this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s with north winds
between 5-8 mph.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current
trends, no major changes will be made on this morning`s forecast
update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

High pressure will remain in control this week as an omega block
pattern takes shape across the CONUS.  As such, dry conditions will
promote greater diurnal ranges, with above normal high temperatures
persisting through the week, and cooler than normal lows. Fire risk
is non zero, though marginal, with RH generally in the 28-35 range.
Winds are light, but will continue to monitor conditions and will
post a graphic if necessary.

Later in the week, as southern trajectories become established,
moisture will begin to increase ahead of a low pressure system and
attendant surface cold front. At this time, guidance is in good
agreement that the ridge holds strong for the lead wave, deflecting
to the north. It is the second wave that looks to be a weather maker
for us, reflected by an increase in rain/storm chances (30-50%).
There is, however, some uncertainty in the evolution exists at this
time. In the wake of this system, dry weather returns with weak
ridging taking hold again. A wavier pattern appears evident going
forward and should supply intermittent rain chances. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be from the north around 5 knots this
afternoon. These will subside this evening to calm to light from
the north around 3 knots. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      86  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     87  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  56  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       87  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    87  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     87  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19