136
FXUS64 KJAN 061502 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1002 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Rest of Today...Weak ridging aloft and high pressure over the area
will maintain quiet weather across the region today.  Highs this
afternoon will remain above normal for this time of year as they
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Winds throughout the day will be from the east northeast between 5-
10 mph, gusting at times to between 15-20 mph, particularly over
areas along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape.  Other than some
minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast, no major
changes will be made on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Today and tonight: Currently, satellite and water vapor imagery
depict dry conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley region
as we remain on the western side of a low level ridge. This low
level ridging will increase N/NW flow into our area and continue
to promote dry conditions. Cloud cover will remain minimal, with
the greatest chance of isolated to scattered cloud cover being in
the Pine Belt region, where the greatest moisture exists NW of the
ridge. Temperatures will continue to be a bit above normal, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Tonight, dry
conditions are expected to prevail with lows in the lower 60s.
Patchy fog will be possible in the east as weak moisture advection
may occur along the ridge axis. /AJ/

Monday through Saturday: Dry weather with seasonably warm days
and cool nights will be the general rule through the upcoming week
and into next weekend. Deep layer anticyclonic flow will be the
primary weather influence over the forecast area, and this will
support a persistently dry and subsident atmospheric regime.

A dry cold front pushing through the area Monday will stall near the
Gulf Coast and then remain in that general area for the next
several days. The front is forecast to keep the developing
Tropical Storm Milton well to our south, but the pressure gradient
will tighten up some and increase our surface wind. Given the
continued dry conditions and low afternoon RH values expected, we
could see an uptick in fire danger as we go through the week and a
fire danger graphic may eventually be needed. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Brief periods of patchy fog will continue through 14Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the period. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  65  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      88  63  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     91  65  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  66  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       89  65  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    91  65  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     92  65  85  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19