512
FXUS64 KJAN 072359 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
559 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Tonight through Saturday night: An anomalously strong mid level
ridge will continue to support a persistent southerly flow
pattern as we go into the weekend. Additional record high
temperatures are expected Saturday with mid 80s potentially on the
table. The primary impact concern once again in the near term
will be dense advection fog potential, especially over southern
and eastern portions of the area as we go from late tonight into
early Saturday morning. HREF/HRRR guidance show probs for this,
but will continue to monitor for now given we will be on the
northern fringe of the most favorable area, and it appears low
level flow could be strong enough to keep stratus just above the
ground. It is possible that we will need to issue a dense fog
advisory at some point this evening, but for now will message a
limited dense fog threat for the entire area given the
uncertainty.

Sunday through next Thursday night: A very wet weather pattern is
expected to develop as a polar frontal boundary pushes southward
and stalls over our region with deep southwest flow aloft.
Anomalously moist air will be drawn poleward as a series of
perturbations move along the front and initiate periods of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will vary along
the boundary, but they shouldn`t be extreme, so expect them to be
mild on average with the potential for colder temperatures limited
to upper portions of the Delta region into north central MS. Given
the increased confidence (50-60%+ probs for 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall total) we have gone ahead and messaged a limited flooding
threat and emphasized the river flooding potential. In terms of
severe weather potential, we`ll monitor this as we go through the
next few days, when details become clearer, and then we can gauge
better how significant the warm sector will be for any individual
frontal waves and potential surface-based instability. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR flight categories, with ceilings between 3.5-5kft prevail
across the area. Southerly return flow will bring another round of
IFR to LIFR ceilings/vsby from stratus & BR/fog. Some could be
dense near daybreak 08/09-14Z Saturday, especially near HBG &
PIB. Conditions will improve by mid-morning to MVFR stratus,
before lifting to VFR by early aftn around 08/20-22Z Saturday.
Winds will persist overnight before becoming gusty/southwesterly
into the aftn hours, sustained of 15-25mph & gusts up to
25-30mph. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  81  61  74 /   0   0  20  20
Meridian      61  80  60  76 /   0  10  20  20
Vicksburg     62  81  58  70 /   0   0  20  20
Hattiesburg   62  83  62  81 /   0  10   0  10
Natchez       63  81  62  76 /   0   0  10  20
Greenville    61  78  48  53 /   0  10  30  10
Greenwood     62  79  51  59 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/DC