154
FXUS64 KJAN 041733 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A stationary front, the same one that has been focusing convection
to our northwest over the past couple of days, extends from the
ArkLaTex through southeast AR and into the Midsouth this morning.
Today, this front shows signs of retrograding northwestward as a
warm front, placing it farther away from our area than it has
been. The 12z KJAN RAOB reveals that capping remains in place over
the area around 700 mb, with a fairly deep mixed layer which will
result in another warm breezy day. With midlevel moisture now
increasing, we should see more scattered showers around today,
with perhaps an isolated storm. However, the cap will temper most
of this activity, keeping convection shallow and not very
widespread. Across our northwestern areas, there is limited
potential for a few cells to break through the cap and become more
robust this afternoon through early this evening, but quite
limited forcing should keep this threat isolated. If a severe
storm does develop, damaging wind and large hail will be the
potential hazards. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Today and Tonight...Strong ridging aloft will remain entrenched
across much of the forecast area from the east over the next 24
hours.  This ridge will overall continue to result in mainly quiet
weather across the region as a strong capping inversion accompanies
it across much of the CWA.  Still, a few showers & possible a
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during the heat of the day.  This
will again particularly be the case across far northwestern portions
of the CWA, which resides on the outer periphery of the
aforementioned ridge.

Once again across this portion of the area, i.e. essentially the
Delta region, a stalled frontal boundary sits over to just to the
northwest. This, accompanied by ascent embedded in southwest flow
aloft lifting along the boundary this afternoon, ample instability,
steep mid-level lapse rates near the area, and sufficient wind
shear, will yield another afternoon and evening of isolated severe
thunderstorms potentially affecting this area.  This is why a
"Marginal Risk" of isolated severe storms exists there this
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail
will be the primary concerns with these storms. While again some
showers and storms will be possible further east along the Highway
82 corridor toward the Golden Triangle area and further southeast
along the Interstate 20 corridor, increased presence of the ridge
aloft currently looks to hinder severe storm development in these
areas.

A tight pressure gradient also continues to lingering across the
forecast area today.  This will again result in breezy south winds
through the afternoon hours.  Expect sustained winds today to be
sustained at times between 20-25 mph, gusting to between 30-40 mph
at times. As a result, another "Limited Threat" for strong winds
exists across the CWA for this afternoon.

Hot muggy conditions will remain across the area as well.  Once
again, look for some record high temperatures to be in jeopardy of
either being tied or broken this afternoon.  Highs will range from
the upper 80s to lows 90s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Then for tonight, another mild night is expected as lows only fall
into the low and middle 70s.

Saturday into late Saturday night...A change in the weather pattern
across the region will begin on Sunday.  Unfortunately to get there,
we`ll have to deal with a bout of severe weather Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning.  Ridging across the region will break down
Saturday through Saturday night. This will allow a closed low
pressure system to dig southeast into the southern plains Saturday,
and eject northeast across the Ozarks, and into the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley late Sunday.  This will result in a surface low
developing, which will lift northeast near/through the region while
likewise dragging a cold front into the through the forecast area in
its wake late Saturday night through Sunday morning.

Ahead of this front, ample moisture/instability will be pooled
across the forecast area, in addition to sufficient forcing and both
deep-layer and low-level wind shear as jet energy increases across
the region. This will set the stage for severe storms affecting the
forecast area from Saturday afternoon, into Saturday night, and into
Sunday morning.  Currently the better potential for severe storms
exists across western portions of the CWA, essentially along and
west of a Eupora to Jackson to Bude Mississippi line, where an
"Enhanced Risk" of severe storms.  Here, the better potential for
bowing segments and supercells capable of producing damaging wind
gusts to 70 mph, large hail to golf ball size (given here is were
the best mid-level lapse rates resides), and tornadoes looks to
exist. Across the remainder of the forecast area, a "Slight Risk" of
severe storms exists overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
Convection across this area currently looks to have congealed more
into a line of storms that will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph, quarter to golf ball size hail, as well as the
potential for tornadoes.  In addition, heavy downpours and some
potential for training convection could yield some localized flash
flooding across the area.  Please continue to monitor the latest
forecast and outlook, as both timing and threat areas associated
with this storm system continue to be fine-tuned.

Sunday through Thursday...As both the severe threat and cold front
exit east Sunday morning, cooler quieter conditions will begin to
prevail across the CWA.  Northwest flow aloft and at the surface
will begin ushering this noticeably cooler drier airmass.  Luckily
these quieter, cooler, drier conditions will linger in place across
the CWA through the majority of the long term portion of the
forecast.  Currently, the next best chance for rain looks to enter
the forecast Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly over the
Golden Triangle area, as a weak cold front swings through the
forecast area. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the region early
this afternoon, though the cloud deck remains at MVFR across parts
of southeast MS. VFR conditions are expected to continue in most
areas through early evening, though scattered SHRA and isolated TS
are possible through early evening. MVFR ceilings will return
during the evening and will continue well into Saturday morning. A
few sites may fall to IFR ceilings generally around daybreak on
Saturday. More widespread SHRA and TS activity is anticipated from
midday Saturday through Sat night. Southerly winds will remain
gusty at times through Saturday, with some gusts of 30-35 kt
possible at times. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  88  63  72 /  10  70  90  50
Meridian      70  88  66  76 /   0  50  80  80
Vicksburg     75  88  59  65 /  10  80 100  20
Hattiesburg   72  88  69  78 /  10  60  80  80
Natchez       75  88  60  67 /   0  70 100  20
Greenville    73  85  55  59 /  30  90 100  20
Greenwood     73  88  58  64 /  20  80 100  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/