200
FXUS64 KJAN 161135
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
635 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - There is an increasing threat for thunderstorms this weekend,
   and we are monitoring for the potential for severe weather.

 - Before then, dry weather with above normal temperatures will
   continue to be the general rule.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today through Friday...

Dry and quiet conditions will continue across our forecast area
today and Friday as near term guidance continues to show an
unusually strong subtropical ridge over the Southern Plains to Lower
MS Valley region. It would not surprise me if a few locations across
our area see afternoon highs climb into the low 90s today and
Friday. Overnight lows moderate through the late week in response to
low-level moisture increases preceding the weekend front. Expect
overnight lows to drop into the low/mid 60s through the remainder of
the week.

Saturday and Sunday...

Global models continue to indicate a window of opportunity from late
Saturday afternoon into at least the first half of Saturday night,
where some potential for severe storms will exist across mainly the
Delta region. This specific area is currently where the better
conglomeration of wind shear, instability, and forcing is forecast
to reside as a cold front moves into the forecast area. Damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph will be the primary concern with such storms.
There is still some uncertainty in the exact evolution of this
system and timing, in addition to the track of some key features,
and whether or not there will be enough adequate level of
instability in place ahead of the front. Therefore, please continue
to monitor the latest forecast for the most up-to-date information
concerning this severe potential this weekend.

In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the slight
risk has been trimmed back to cover mainly the NW Delta region
including portions of southeast AR and a few of our northeast LA
parishes. The marginal risk has expanded further southward to cover
a good portion of south MS.

Rainfall totals across the forecast area during this time still look
to generally hover between 0.50-1.50 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. The higher QPF amounts continue to exist across
the northern half of the CWA. This would be some much welcomed and
needed rainfall for the area, but it won`t put much of a dent in the
ongoing dry conditions.

Sunday Night into the new work week...

Quiet conditions will return to our forecast area Sunday evening/
Sunday night as the cold front continues to push east away from our
forecast area. Weather conditions will remain quiet looking ahead
into the new work week as guidance shows drier air and high pressure
building into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Heading into
Tuesday, future guidance shows a cold front from the central CONUS
pushing southward towards the southeast CONUS. This could bring a
slight chance of scattered showers across our CWA Tuesday
afternoon/Tuesday evening. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

All TAF sites are VFR this morning and this will continue through
the period. The winds will be light, mainly out of the east./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      89  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     89  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  61  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    88  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     89  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15