575
FXUS64 KJAN 101115 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain under the influence of a
>591dam ridge to our west although early morning water vapor
imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low
spinning over Manitoba/Ontario provinces that will help deepen upper
level troughing over the northern and central Plains and try to push
into our region. Surface ridging will continue to nose back to the
southwest across our CWA as well. The ridging surface and aloft will
continue to limit rain chances and allow temperatures to top out a
little warmer. Our normal highs run in the lower 90s while our
normal lows run in the lower 70s. High temperatures today will top
out in the lower 90s across the eastern half of the CWA while the
western half tops out in the mid 90s. The 00Z Sunday JAN sounding
had a PWAT of 1.66in. Deep moisture will slowly increase going into
next week with PWATs surging back above two inches. The increasing
moisture will lead to higher humidity that will combine with the mid
90F temperatures resulting in peak heat index values around 105F
today in our west. A graphic advertising a "Limited" risk for heat
stress will be carried through today. /22/

Monday through the end of the week...

The current easterly wave moving across the Gulf Coast will yield to
a building ridge from the east over the next few days. Northern
stream ridge should phase by the end of the week, yielding above
normal heights across most of the CONUS by week`s end. Heat will
become an increasing concern with near-105 max heat indices for
parts of the area today and Monday. Then broader coverage of 105-115
type heat indices by the middle of the week. Will continue to expand
heat messaging with possible products needed as we move into the new
week. Mainly afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances return to the
area as well. /NF/

Tropics:

Tropical expectations remain similar to as discussed yesterday and
since that time a robust tropical wave has emerged off of Africa, as
is often the case in August. The NHC designates this feature with a
40% chance of developments over the next seven days. Guidance spread
remains large and thus the wave will just bear watching over the
next week or so as could be expected this time of year. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Isolated TSRA may come in vcty of PIB and HBG 21Z-00Z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail until 09Z Mon when
MVFR cigs wl be psbl in the se. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  74  93  74 /  20  20  40  20
Meridian      91  72  91  72 /  20  10  40  20
Vicksburg     93  74  95  75 /  20  20  50  20
Hattiesburg   93  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  30
Natchez       93  74  93  74 /  20  20  50  20
Greenville    93  74  94  75 /  10  10  30  20
Greenwood     95  74  95  75 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/NF/22