Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
094 FGUS73 KIWX 241219 CCB ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 719 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations in the Maumee River basin in northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio and for the Upper Wabash River basin in northern Indiana. In the table below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Maumee River at Fort Wayne, Indiana has a flood stage of 17 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 21.0 feet. Bluffton, Indiana on the Wabash River has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 10.9 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid February 24, 2025 - May 24, 2025 ... Maumee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Ohio Montpelier OH 12.0 8.9 9.9 10.8 11.9 13.0 14.7 15.4 Newville IN 12.0 9.7 10.9 11.9 12.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 St. Joe Ft W. IN 12.0 5.2 5.3 8.2 9.9 14.2 16.4 20.8 Saint Marys River Decatur IN 17.0 13.0 13.9 15.4 17.6 19.5 21.5 22.5 Muldoon Bridge IN 14.0 7.7 8.6 9.4 11.8 14.0 17.4 18.8 Maumee River Fort Wayne IN 17.0 9.8 10.9 13.9 16.7 19.3 21.0 23.1 Defiance OH 10.0 4.3 4.7 5.3 6.7 8.9 10.1 10.9 Napoleon OH 12.0 6.1 7.1 8.5 10.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 Tiffin River Stryker OH 11.0 9.6 11.0 12.2 13.4 14.6 16.5 17.1 Blanchard River Ottawa OH 23.0 17.6 18.4 20.2 21.8 23.2 25.6 26.8 Auglaize River Fort Jennings OH 13.0 7.5 8.2 10.2 12.7 14.6 15.8 17.7 Defiance OH 21.0 12.1 12.9 14.0 16.3 19.2 21.5 22.0 Upper Wabash River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Wabash River Linn Grove IN 11.0 8.9 9.3 10.2 11.2 13.0 14.7 15.4 Bluffton IN 10.0 6.1 6.5 7.4 8.9 10.9 13.0 14.4 Wabash IN 14.0 8.2 8.6 9.3 11.0 12.5 15.5 17.2 Logansport IN 15.0 6.6 6.8 7.5 8.3 9.6 10.6 11.2 Tippecanoe River Ora IN 12.0 8.6 9.2 9.7 10.9 11.9 13.5 14.3 Winamac IN 10.0 6.1 6.7 7.1 8.2 9.3 11.1 12.5 Mississinewa River Marion IN 12.0 4.8 5.1 6.0 7.1 8.4 11.1 13.3 Salamonie River Portland IN 11.0 5.7 6.0 7.1 8.0 9.2 14.5 15.8 Warren IN 12.0 8.7 9.1 9.5 10.1 11.4 12.9 14.5 Eel River N. Manchester IN 11.0 6.9 7.4 8.8 10.0 12.2 14.4 15.8 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Snow depths were generally between zero and 3 inches as of Sunday morning February 23rd. Snow water equivalent of the remaining snowpack was less than 0.50 inch. Soil Moisture remained below to much below normal. ...Weather Outlook... ENSO is forecast to transition from a weak La Nina to a Neutral pattern through May. There is not a discernible signal for either above or below normal temperatures. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook is leaning toward above normal precipitation through May. Normal rainfall from March through May range from 9 inches over the Maumee Basin to nearly 12 inches over parts of the Upper Wabash. ...River Conditions... River conditions remain well below flood stage through the middle of February. Some ice could form ice jams as temperatures rise this week (last week of February), but any flooding from ice jams should be brief and local. ...Overall Flood Risk... Given the antecedent dry soil state with below normal recent rainfall, the overall flood risk is expected to remain below normal into May. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on March 14, 2025 for the Upper Wabash and Maumee River Basins. $$