955
FXUS63 KIWX 052330
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
730 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry pattern continues into the upcoming work week.

* Warmer conditions this weekend followed by cooler (near normal)
  temperatures early next week.

* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon due
  to dry, mild and breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A deepening upper level shortwave trough will continue east through
the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. This
feature will drop a surface cold front through the area late tonight
through early Sunday afternoon (timing...into far nw IN/sw MI near
12z Sun, the US 24 corridor 15/16z Sun, and exiting our area to the
east by 18/19z. A pre-frontal low level jet ramps up to 40-50 kts
tonight, though very shallow mixing depths should limit sfc gusts to
near 20 knots overnight. Greater diurnal mixing in a favorable post-
frontal environment then supports breezy conditions (gusts 20-30
mph) late Sunday morning and afternoon. This combined with the
incoming dry air and mild temps may lead to afternoon fire weather
concerns (see discussion below). As for precipitation chances, poor
moisture return under a stout EML/cap, and northward bypass of
deeper moisture/ascent, should limit precip coverage/chances with
another dry frontal passage favored later tonight into Sunday
morning.

Cooler, seasonable, temperatures will filter into the area into
early next week as dry northwest flow sets up aloft for at least the
first half of the upcoming work week. An upstream upper level ridge
is modeled to build northeastward toward the end of the period (Thur-
Sat) which brings above normal temperatures back into the fold. No
signs of a pattern conducive for needed rain otherwise next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A cold front will cross the area early Sunday morning but
conditions remain far too dry for rain or even low clouds. Main
impacts will be some marginal LLWS late tonight followed by
gusty WNW winds (25-30 kts) on Sunday. Forecast confidence is
high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Rainfall has occurred in some areas over the past week or 2,
alleviating the drought conditions somewhat and moistened some of
the fine fuels, but still leaving lingering an overall fire
danger for the region. As noted in the main discussion a cold
front will sweep in Sunday morning with wind gusts increasing
during the afternoon in the 20 to 25 mph range. In addition,
lower dewpoints will arrive, especially south of US-30 with some
models suggesting drops into the 20s. While this seems
overdone, upstream obs across the Dakotas (the source region of
air for tomorrow) does indicate plenty of 30 degree dewpoints
which combined with highs in the mid 70s may yield min RH values
of 25 to 35% with locally lower values. The 1 hour fuels
(grasses as well as many crops in fields that have now dried or
are rapidly drying out) will be the greatest concern for
ignitions, with the gusty winds possibly causing fires to
spread. Overall, all parameters are not quite aligned for Red
Flag conditions, but an Elevated Fire Danger does appear to be
in play. If you are planning to burn brush or harvest crops, use
extreme caution during the afternoon. Also make sure to follow
any burn bans that may be in place.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD
FIRE WEATHER...Fisher