745
FXUS63 KIWX 091848
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
248 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Monday, rain chances start Monday night

- Highs in the 70s this weekend away from Lake MI, warming into
  the lower 80s Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

An area of vorticity shears out across the southeast allowing a
northern stream trough to shift southeast and deepen as an upper low
deepens across the Gulf States. Closer to home, a couple centers of
surface high pressure pass through the area and this is expected to
allow a prolonged period of dry weather through the weekend. The
second of such high pressure centers follows a cold front that
pushes into the area during the day Saturday, but that looks to be a
dry FROPA and may only act to excite winds to breezy Saturday.
Additionally, while temperatures today top out in the mid 60s, they
rise to the mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. This should provide a
nice Mother`s day.

Good low level lapse rates and 850 mb temperatures in the low
teens may allow for temperatures in the 80s on Monday. One
issue with this thinking could be that this is when
aforementioned trapped energy to the south is picked up by a
trough arriving in the Western CONUS and shoved towards the area
Monday. Increased moisture in the form of dew points edging
into the low 60s along with a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE and
chances for rain. Timing of all of this is key though as late
arriving surface dew points likely evaporates early arriving
rain chances and increases high temps. Have allowed NBM highs to
stay which lowers temps in the south with the arriving higher
dew points.

With the center of this energy much closer to the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, much better instability resides across the area to
the tune of 500 to 1500 J/kg so thunderstorms will be possible, but
shear looks to be lacking, which could restrict severe potential.
Given the closer proximity and better moisture/instability indices,
Tuesday and Wednesday likely have a better chance to see rain than
Monday.

A brief dry period takes over for the first part of Thursday as the
upper energy departs to our east, but another trough is hot on its
tail. Late day instability arriving on the northern edge of a low
level jet may be enough to set off a few thunderstorms during the
afternoon that could last into the evening. How flat the warm sector
is Thursday evening/night could dictate if any stronger storms
arrive during that time. Models currently depict better shear
scraping our south Thursday night. Then, depending on how quickly
that energy gets out of the area, Friday actually leans drier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF
forecast.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Andersen/Skipper