379
FXUS63 KIWX 241806
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
206 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler weather ahead with highs mid 60s to low 70s Mon-Tue.

- Scattered lake effect showers late this afternoon through Tuesday,
  best chances (20-50%) across far northern IN and lower MI.

- Mainly dry mid week through next weekend with highs generally in
  the mid-upper 70s, still below normal.

- There is a Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday
  evening for Lake Michigan beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Shortwave and associated secondary sfc trough will pivot through in
cyclonic wnw flow late this afternoon and evening with another shot
of CAA. Steepening lapse rates on the leading edge of the associated
cold pool aloft, and initial lake MI moisture fluxes as 850 delta
T`s push into the teens, will provide chances for lake enhanced
showers into mainly north-central IN and southwest MI, with a
transition to pure lake effect (iso-sct) overnight into early
Monday. Another mid level impulse then follows through on Monday
with diurnal heating of the boundary layer and maintenance of lake
moisture flux in cool northwest flow. Further inland penetration of
scattered showers into areas mainly along and north of US 30 is
expected on Monday as a result with light rainfall amounts
anticipated. Similar conditions then into Monday night and Tuesday
with the area remaining in cool and perturbed northwest flow. This
will keep chances for lake effect/enhanced showers around with highs
on Monday and Tuesday only reaching the mid 60s to near 70.

The second half of the week into next weekend will feature slight
air mass modification and mainly dry conditions as upper troughing
relaxes a bit with sfc high pressure in control for most of the
period. A trailing mid level trough and associated sfc boundary may
slip south through the area around Thursday. Moisture appears limited
however with NBM PoPs capped at 10-20%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with
scattered lake effect type rain showers with the cold air
advection over the area from about 23z Sun until around 11z Mon.
KSBN cigs may drop to MVFR cats with the heavier light rain
showers. Northwest winds also will gust to around 20kts this
evening and again after about 11z Mon due to increased mixing
due to diurnal warming.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen