290
FXUS63 KIWX 071259 AAA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
859 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms tonight into early Sunday

- Highs in the 70s to around 80 through Tuesday, then warming
  into the 80s the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Recent rainfall and light winds along with perhaps some
Canadian smoke have helped set the stage for widespread dense
fog in an area northeast of Warsaw and north of Fort Wayne
extending north in Lower Michigan and east into northwest Ohio.
Have issued a dense fog advisory for the dense fog until 9 AM
EDT. A small, but well-defined vort max (disturbance) will move
across the area tonight. This system was very distinct on
satellite (vapor) and was just coming out of the High Plains
early this morning. The environment ahead of this system will be
favorable for heavy rain, but limited severe storm potential
given high precipitable water values, weak low and mid level
flow and a saturated lower to mid atmosphere. Concern for
flooding given these favorable factors.

Otherwise, a deep upper level low will bring the chance for
showers and scattered storms from Sunday night through Monday.
Breezy conditions are likely Tuesday along with slightly cooler
temperatures. Showers and more storms are possible the rest of
the week, although there should be a diurnal flare with the
activity during the 19Z to 01Z window.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Inverted trough type feature has been the focal point for
extensive fog development early this morning. This feature has
been migrating westward, but latest satellite trends would seem
to support bulk of the impacts remaining just south of KSBN.
Dense fog should affect KFWA through 13 or 14Z before a sharp
improvement is expected as moisture is relatively shallow in
nature. VFR conditions should persist through the remainder of
the day with attention then turning to next upstream mid level
wave that will bring rain to northern Indiana tonight. Remnants
of inverted trough type feature and weak low level moisture
pooling should reside across northwest Indiana where best chance
of thunder is expected. Still some question as to northward
extent of better rain tonight with much of this uncertainty
depending on strength of diabatically modified sfc reflection
of this system. Overall, thunder potential appears quite low.
Rain should taper late in the period toward daybreak Sunday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-
     203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili