374
FXUS63 KIWX 161143
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
743 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing clouds today and remaining cool albeit slightly
  warmer than yesterday.Trending warmer Friday and Saturday.

- Breezy this weekend with a 70% to 90% chance of rain Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday morning.

- There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Damaging winds would be the main
  threats. Confidence is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Ridging over the central CONUS will continue building north and
westward today. Decreasing clouds from the northeast moving
slowly southwestward over the area today as the anticyclonic
flow over the building ridge to our west allows for drier air to
push in from the northeast before mid and high level debris
clouds from the next incoming system begins increasing later
tonight with the arrival of the ridge flow. High temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs mainly in
the upper 60s. A few areas to the southwest will get into the
lower 70s.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer on Friday and
Saturday, with highs in the 70s on Friday and in the upper 70s
to low 80s on Saturday, ahead of a pretty dynamic trough that
will push southeastward into the region originating from the
Gulf of Alaska. Breezy conditions with rain and thunderstorms are on
tap Saturday into Sunday. Instability and directional shear related
to the front could spur an isolated severe storm or two. The SPC
currently has a majority of our CWA under a marginal severe threat
for Saturday. On Sunday afternoon, winds will peak with gusts up to
around 30 to 35 mph possible behind the cold front and colder
airmass advecting into the area. Highs on Sunday will only get into
the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows on Monday morning will be in the
lower 40s. These cooler temperatures will stick around through next
week with periods of rain showers with troughing setting up
residence over the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 740 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions at the TAF sites through the period, with mainly
mid-high level clouds to deal with. Ceilings around 8-10kft are
expected through late morning, clearing at KSBN first (around
14z) and then KFWA (closer to 15-16z). Increasing high clouds
are expected later in the period, with east-northeast flow
shifting more southeastward with time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD